MEASURED LIVE (common_libs/tests/measure_fire_ghost_lag.py, 4 sessions, 1777
matched ghost spawns, both movers): the server dispatches a turn's fire AFTER
our go() for that same turn, so a turn-T shot's energy drop first reaches our
scan at turn T+1 — and a bullet takes its FIRST step during the turn it is
fired, so the true bullet is already one whole bullet step (11-20 px) downrange.
Both movers place the ghost at the SCANNED enemy position (where the bullet was
born), so the whole ghost trajectory is the true one shifted one turn later and
the arrival deadline is a full tick late.
MEASURED: detection lag +1 tick on 100% of 1777 matched spawns; ghost-vs-
observer displacement 19.06 px mean / 22.00 p90 (tfil) and 16.08 / 21.81
(strafe); arrival-deadline error 0.99 / 0.77 ticks. NOT a rendering artefact:
the draw/advance order is correct (advanceBullets -> detectFires -> build).
THE FIX: TR_FIRE_LAG (int, default 0 = today byte-for-byte) in the shared
fire_tracker, applied by both movers at spawn: x = origin + dir*speed*lag.
The deadline needs no separate change — both movers derive it from the ghost's
own position, so a correct position gives a correct deadline.
WITH IT: displacement 19.06 -> 5.37 px mean (the residue is the enemy's own
<=8 px scan staleness) and the deadline error 0.99 -> 0.06 ticks.
Guards: test_tfil_commit_env 77 -> 87 checks (default golden parity, exact
n-step back-date, deadline shortens by exactly lag, junk/negative degrade to 0,
reaped exactly one tick earlier); test_env_report + test_env_dotenv green.
TR_FIRE_LAG registered in env_report + knownEnvNames + .env.example +
docs/env_reference.md. Live A/B pre-registered in docs/movement_campaign.md
(Batch 8) with its MDE stated up front; arms tools/ab/arms_fire_lag.txt.
TR_FIRE_DIAG gains a per-round ROUND line (the tick->getTurn anchor) and a
per-spawn SPAWN line (the ghost's drawn position).
The picker scored candidates on pathMaxHeat alone and then drew uniformly
among the survivors, so a mirror-side tile was as likely as a straight-ahead
one. Added a continuous turn cost as a DRAW WEIGHT applied only after the
hard heat filter:
w = max(1, round(1 + TR_TFIL_TURN_BIAS * (1 - max(0,|turn| - REF)/180)))
- TR_TFIL_TURN_BIAS (default 0) is the odds ratio straight-ahead vs 180 deg;
TR_TFIL_TURN_REF_DEG (default 45) is where the penalty starts. Both
default-off-effect: the default-path golden in test_tfil_commit_env.nim is
unchanged and still passes.
- Turn cost is NEVER folded into the heat score. The filter stays hard.
- The draw stays random (j51 measured an argmin worse); every weight is
floored at 1, so the pool can never be emptied and bias 0 is exactly the
shipped uniform draw.
- |turn| now travels on the ScoredTile, and the commit log gained turn /
minturn / promote so a caller can measure the regret of the draw.
Guards: 51 -> 66 checks (an absurd 99:1 bias never rescues an over-threshold
tile; mean |turn|, draw regret, >90 and mirror-side shares all fall; path
heat does not rise). env_report + .env.example updated.
Pooled verdict on the pre-registered rule is NOT DISTINGUISHABLE: the primary
cross-opponent sign test on round wins is 11/14, p=0.05737 for 'arrive', over the
0.05 line. Block 1 alone passed (p=0.01294); block 2 alone did not (p=0.0654).
Every delta is positive in both blocks for all three arms and damage/run is UP
on all three, so this reads as an under-powered null at the MDE boundary
(MDE 0.31 wins/run, observed 0.28) - but the verdict layer is not
reinterpreted, exactly as gate v1 was not.
The MECHANISM is established cleanly and replicates in both blocks: incoming hit
rate 18.07% -> 14.92%, sign-flip p=0.0013, CI [-5.29, -1.53] pp, damage taken
-24.57/run. That is precisely the pathology the owner watched.
Recommended for his own .env: TR_TFIL_COMMIT_ARRIVAL=1 and
TR_TFIL_NOREV_SPEED=4; leave TR_TFIL_COMMIT_MARGIN at 0 (weakest arm in both
blocks). Shipped default untouched: TR_MOVEMENT=strafe, all three new knobs
default off.
The owner's live-GUI report was correct on all four counts, and all four are
one bug: the commitment is cancelled by our own tile-boundary crossing
(96.1% of picks, 3793/3946, mean hold 5.06 ticks) while the bot is still
accelerating, and the picker is an unconstrained uniform draw over every
safe tile, so the new target can land in the mirror direction at |speed| < 4.
New knobs, all env-gated and default = today's behaviour (byte-for-byte
default parity guard re-run and green, 51 checks):
TR_TFIL_COMMIT_ARRIVAL hold the committed tile until we are ON it; the
tick knob becomes a MINIMUM dwell. 0 = shipped.
TR_TFIL_COMMIT_MARGIN leave only if the best alternative is at least
this much cooler on the same pathMaxHeat scale.
0 = shipped.
TR_TFIL_NOREV_SPEED while |speed| is below this, a mid-flight switch
may not take a tile >90 deg off the travel
direction. 0 = shipped. norevPool() never returns
an empty pool: with every candidate behind us it
takes the least-bad turn.
Offline gate (recorded DrussGT fixture, 20026 ticks): mean hold 4.1 -> 24.0
ticks, abandoned-before-arrival 92.8% -> 40.5%, committed tile actually
reached 3.3% -> 17.2%, opposite-direction slow mid-flight switches 394 -> 64
(-84%). 'TR_TFIL_TILE_REPLAN=off' alone - what cc11ede's arm B already tried -
only gets the hold to 13.6, which is why that A/B could not find this.
strafe is untouched: it imports only heatDecay/bulletMagScale/Pillar*, none
of which this touches. TR_MOVEMENT default stays strafe. Registered in
env_report.nim + knownEnvNames() + .env.example. Arms pre-registered in
docs/movement_campaign.md and tools/ab/arms_tfil_commit.txt.
56/60 opponent-level win deltas are non-negative and no opponent family
regresses reproducibly (the one WallAvoider loss reverses in Batch 2).
corr(dwins, d_hit_rate) = -0.09, corr(dwins, d_damage) = +0.38: the aggregate
win is a survival effect, but a per-opponent hit-rate gain does not predict a
per-opponent win gain - so hit rate stays an explanation, never a proxy.
- tfil is 4th of five on round wins, not last (ring is nominally 0.04 lower,
ns) - the Batch-1 commit message overstates one word; the correction is
recorded in the ledger rather than rewritten.
- the Batch-2 direct answer quoted three of four CIs excluding 0; it is four of
four ([+0.04,+0.63], [+0.16,+0.60], [+0.27,+0.89], [+0.22,+0.72]).
- added the cleanest aggression isolation of Batch 1 (ring - ring_notemp, same
engine and heat field, range weighting alone): +41.9 dmg/run, -0.11 wins/run,
+12.8 pp incoming hit rate at 236 vs 395 px.
Same frozen panel, same 3x3 design, new session on commit 8efa627 (no source file
changed since 1984a78, so the same code), 225 battles, 0 invalid runs. Arms:
tfil, strafe_notilt, strafe_325 + the tilt re-armed at 600px and 250px.
Paired vs tfil: strafe_325 +0.58 wins/run [CI +0.27,+0.89] 11/12 p=0.0063;
strafe_notilt +0.47 [+0.22,+0.72] 10/11 p=0.0117; tilt_600 +0.40 [+0.04,+0.76]
(sign test 8/11 p=0.23, sign-flip p=0.049); tilt_250 +0.38 [+0.07,+0.69] 10/12
p=0.039. Incoming hit rate -5.2..-6.9 pp with 0/15 opponents favouring tfil.
The range TARGET is not the lever: re-arming the tilt moved the achieved
distance from 459px (no steering) to 478px and 415px, and none of the three is
separable on wins. This overturns Batch 1's reading that the tilt costs wins -
the honest statement is that the tilt's win effect is below this design's
resolution. tfil reproduced to within 1.4 pp (40.7% -> 39.3% of rounds), so the
baseline itself is stable across sessions.
Ledger: Batch 2 section, the verbatim analyzer report, a data-driven
what-to-try-next, and the session log.
225 battles, one frozen binary, five env-only arms, the frozen panel, 0 invalid
runs. Paired per opponent vs the shipped tfil:
strafe_notilt wins/run +0.38 [CI +0.16,+0.60] 9/9 opponents p=0.0039
dmg/run -10.2 [CI -25.8,+5.5] p=0.61, MDE 20.4 (not detectable)
incoming hit rate 12.24% vs 18.17%, dmg taken 150 vs 200
strafe_325 wins/run +0.33 [CI +0.04,+0.63] 10/12 p=0.0386
ring dmg/run +31.2 [CI +11.5,+50.9] 13/15 p=0.0074, wins/run -0.04 (ns)
but hit rate 29.4% at 236 px: a damage/survival trade, not a win
ring_notemp indistinguishable from tfil on both primaries
Round wins in this harness are survival wins (in 216/219 attributable runs the
win count equals the rounds the opponent died in), and the winner takes ~1/3
fewer hits while fighting ~74 px farther out. The shipped tfil is last of five
on wins: the DrussGT-only picture did not generalize.
Also: tournament_analyze.py now prints BOTH readings of the pre-registered
'while the other does not go down' clause (strict: nothing is better;
substantive: the two strafe arms and ring are better on one metric each).
SirStone