SirStone
1adefaba26
Answers the user's hypothesis that DrussGT dodges low-power shots better. Measured on 70 live battles / 490 rounds / 54939 real shots vs real DrussGT (/tmp/tfil_ab2) and replicated on 35 more battles / 24280 shots (/tmp/powtest). Power is not randomly assigned - our policy caps it by RANGE (TR_POWER_FAR_DIST=200 -> 1.0) and by OUR OWN ENERGY (the slope), so inside a range band power is almost a deterministic function of our energy and a naive low-vs-high comparison is secretly a losing-vs-healthy comparison. Everything is stratified by range band and backed by a within-band shuffled-label null (arrival re-derived, so the null keeps the kinematic channel), a round-cluster bootstrap, and a within-shot CONTROL window 40 ticks later when the bullet is long gone. RESULT: no behavioural response. In band 450+ the raw miss distance at arrival is +8.25 px [+5.39,+11.25] for HIGH power - but per flight tick it is 4.52 vs 4.51 px/tick (delta -0.01 [-0.12,+0.10]), i.e. entirely the 2.13-tick longer flight window of the slower bullet. Fixed-12-tick lateral displacement is flat (55.63 vs 55.47, -0.15 [-1.15,+0.84]) and turn rate / speed are flat. The whole difference is already present 5 ticks after the trigger pull (+4.2 px) and is just as large in the bullet-free control window (+5.6 px), so it is a property of the low-energy situation, not of the shot. Hit rate is flat (0.10 vs 0.09). Corpus/attribution notes: e*=DrussGT (subject), s*=ModularBot, per TrBattleCapture.java; the Tank-Royale owner id is NOT stable across runs and is recovered per battle from fire geometry + the energy decrement, cross-checked on 496/496 death events. Geometry validated on the server's own hits (mean miss 11.6 px, 80.6% inside the 18 px radius).
761 lines
70 KiB
Plaintext
761 lines
70 KiB
Plaintext
========================================================================================================
|
|
CORPUS tfil_ab2 70 battles 490 rounds 54939 usable shots by US (ModularBot)
|
|
attribution: owner id -> {e=DrussGT, s=us} recovered per battle from fire geometry+energy;
|
|
cross-checked on the death events: 496/496 deaths have the mapped victim at ~0 energy
|
|
(attribution is per-battle because the Tank Royale owner id is not stable across runs)
|
|
|
|
>> THE CONFOUNDER IS REAL: our fired power is a range + energy cap
|
|
band power shots firePx ourE enemyE flight
|
|
0-100 0.50-0.75 6 82.7 15.5 16.8 6.50
|
|
0-100 >=1.50 19 80.3 63.7 57.0 10.89
|
|
100-200 <0.50 5 160.9 8.6 0.6 10.00
|
|
100-200 0.50-0.75 53 165.8 13.2 18.8 10.42
|
|
100-200 0.75-1.00 5 177.3 29.0 33.7 11.00
|
|
100-200 1.00-1.50 23 168.4 85.0 83.1 11.87
|
|
100-200 >=1.50 191 158.7 75.8 71.0 14.86
|
|
200-300 <0.50 6 257.0 99.7 99.8 15.33
|
|
200-300 0.50-0.75 130 266.8 12.7 20.0 15.28
|
|
200-300 0.75-1.00 21 262.7 28.8 26.7 16.14
|
|
200-300 1.00-1.50 780 261.2 83.6 81.5 16.86
|
|
200-300 >=1.50 56 248.4 32.0 15.7 21.95
|
|
300-450 <0.50 333 409.1 14.5 1.9 20.96
|
|
300-450 0.50-0.75 5272 411.3 13.8 19.2 22.36
|
|
300-450 0.75-1.00 880 407.7 29.0 28.5 23.49
|
|
300-450 1.00-1.50 10696 402.0 69.2 62.6 23.70
|
|
450+ <0.50 950 537.0 14.2 1.1 27.03
|
|
450+ 0.50-0.75 12960 536.1 13.7 18.6 28.38
|
|
450+ 0.75-1.00 2424 540.4 28.8 26.4 30.18
|
|
450+ 1.00-1.50 20126 534.2 63.0 53.8 30.52
|
|
|
|
(a) MISS AT ARRIVAL px - perpendicular offset of DrussGT from our aim line
|
|
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
|
|
0-100 - 23.96 - 32.97 37.21
|
|
n=0 n=6 n=0 n=2 n=19
|
|
100-200 46.00 43.03 33.87 47.92 59.00
|
|
n=5 n=53 n=5 n=23 n=191
|
|
200-300 53.19 74.31 79.82 74.72 113.81
|
|
n=6 n=130 n=21 n=780 n=56
|
|
300-450 112.84 104.67 109.32 110.55 177.09
|
|
n=333 n=5272 n=880 n=10696 n=1
|
|
450+ 130.86 124.01 132.35 132.26 -
|
|
n=950 n=12960 n=2424 n=20126 n=0
|
|
|
|
(a') MISS AT ARRIVAL / flight ticks (px per tick - power-neutral)
|
|
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
|
|
0-100 - 3.72 - 4.85 3.61
|
|
n=0 n=6 n=0 n=2 n=19
|
|
100-200 4.77 4.45 3.32 4.05 4.37
|
|
n=5 n=53 n=5 n=23 n=191
|
|
200-300 3.41 5.01 5.18 4.67 5.47
|
|
n=6 n=130 n=21 n=780 n=56
|
|
300-450 5.52 4.85 4.85 4.88 9.84
|
|
n=333 n=5272 n=880 n=10696 n=1
|
|
450+ 4.97 4.52 4.55 4.51 -
|
|
n=950 n=12960 n=2424 n=20126 n=0
|
|
|
|
(b) LATERAL DISPLACEMENT px over the flight window
|
|
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
|
|
0-100 - 30.64 - 42.81 47.99
|
|
n=0 n=6 n=0 n=2 n=19
|
|
100-200 46.73 37.57 45.85 56.50 64.60
|
|
n=5 n=53 n=5 n=23 n=191
|
|
200-300 79.80 59.91 58.51 71.56 103.43
|
|
n=6 n=130 n=21 n=780 n=56
|
|
300-450 62.79 88.47 94.34 91.94 57.29
|
|
n=333 n=5272 n=880 n=10696 n=1
|
|
450+ 78.40 97.42 102.03 103.30 -
|
|
n=950 n=12960 n=2424 n=20126 n=0
|
|
|
|
(b/ ) LATERAL DISPLACEMENT / flight ticks (px per tick - power-neutral)
|
|
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
|
|
0-100 - 4.66 - 6.54 4.54
|
|
n=0 n=6 n=0 n=2 n=19
|
|
100-200 4.38 3.44 3.77 4.76 4.22
|
|
n=5 n=53 n=5 n=23 n=191
|
|
200-300 5.13 3.79 3.45 4.12 4.75
|
|
n=6 n=130 n=21 n=780 n=56
|
|
300-450 2.96 3.94 4.00 3.86 3.18
|
|
n=333 n=5272 n=880 n=10696 n=1
|
|
450+ 2.90 3.47 3.41 3.42 -
|
|
n=950 n=12960 n=2424 n=20126 n=0
|
|
|
|
(b') LATERAL DISPLACEMENT px over a FIXED 12-tick window (power-neutral)
|
|
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
|
|
0-100 - 59.58 - 85.08 55.36
|
|
n=0 n=6 n=0 n=2 n=19
|
|
100-200 56.15 43.26 46.77 59.47 51.69
|
|
n=5 n=52 n=5 n=23 n=188
|
|
200-300 64.29 47.20 40.99 50.09 54.53
|
|
n=6 n=130 n=21 n=780 n=56
|
|
300-450 42.81 54.20 54.14 52.75 38.69
|
|
n=333 n=5272 n=880 n=10696 n=1
|
|
450+ 45.56 55.63 54.97 55.47 -
|
|
n=950 n=12960 n=2424 n=20126 n=0
|
|
|
|
(b'') CONTROL: lateral displacement px, SAME shot, 40 ticks later (bullet gone)
|
|
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
|
|
0-100 - 47.22 - 59.18 54.33
|
|
n=0 n=5 n=0 n=2 n=15
|
|
100-200 46.20 46.92 12.30 50.59 45.10
|
|
n=2 n=41 n=5 n=23 n=170
|
|
200-300 56.80 43.68 49.06 49.21 41.62
|
|
n=6 n=127 n=21 n=780 n=32
|
|
300-450 37.42 52.80 53.83 51.95 61.95
|
|
n=265 n=5155 n=877 n=10695 n=1
|
|
450+ 42.34 52.03 52.53 52.64 -
|
|
n=821 n=12828 n=2421 n=20120 n=0
|
|
|
|
(f) FLIGHT WINDOW LENGTH ticks (low power = FASTER bullet = shorter)
|
|
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
|
|
0-100 - 6.50 - 6.50 10.89
|
|
n=0 n=6 n=0 n=2 n=19
|
|
100-200 10.00 10.42 11.00 11.87 14.86
|
|
n=5 n=53 n=5 n=23 n=191
|
|
200-300 15.33 15.28 16.14 16.86 21.95
|
|
n=6 n=130 n=21 n=780 n=56
|
|
300-450 20.96 22.36 23.49 23.70 18.00
|
|
n=333 n=5272 n=880 n=10696 n=1
|
|
450+ 27.03 28.38 30.18 30.52 -
|
|
n=950 n=12960 n=2424 n=20126 n=0
|
|
|
|
(c) RESPONSE LATENCY ticks to a >15 deg heading turn
|
|
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
|
|
0-100 - 4.20 - 4.00 5.67
|
|
n=0 n=5 n=0 n=2 n=15
|
|
100-200 6.25 6.34 5.50 6.44 7.00
|
|
n=4 n=29 n=2 n=16 n=148
|
|
200-300 8.33 9.03 10.00 7.68 9.27
|
|
n=6 n=78 n=11 n=566 n=49
|
|
300-450 10.99 11.55 11.84 11.46 2.00
|
|
n=149 n=2968 n=525 n=6860 n=1
|
|
450+ 13.37 13.60 14.57 14.27 -
|
|
n=559 n=8682 n=1745 n=13884 n=0
|
|
|
|
(d) MEAN TURN RATE deg/tick, flight window
|
|
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
|
|
0-100 - 2.83 - 3.89 3.48
|
|
n=0 n=6 n=0 n=2 n=19
|
|
100-200 3.77 2.01 3.39 2.86 2.78
|
|
n=5 n=53 n=5 n=23 n=191
|
|
200-300 3.55 2.08 1.72 2.49 2.07
|
|
n=6 n=130 n=21 n=780 n=56
|
|
300-450 1.30 1.48 1.48 1.61 3.30
|
|
n=333 n=5272 n=880 n=10696 n=1
|
|
450+ 1.37 1.49 1.51 1.46 -
|
|
n=950 n=12960 n=2424 n=20126 n=0
|
|
|
|
(d') MEAN TURN RATE deg/tick, fixed 12-tick window
|
|
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
|
|
0-100 - 2.54 - 2.91 3.43
|
|
n=0 n=6 n=0 n=2 n=19
|
|
100-200 3.64 2.09 3.37 2.66 2.64
|
|
n=5 n=53 n=5 n=23 n=191
|
|
200-300 3.22 1.91 1.45 2.22 2.03
|
|
n=6 n=130 n=21 n=780 n=56
|
|
300-450 1.33 1.46 1.45 1.50 2.78
|
|
n=333 n=5272 n=880 n=10696 n=1
|
|
450+ 1.36 1.43 1.46 1.28 -
|
|
n=950 n=12960 n=2424 n=20126 n=0
|
|
|
|
(d'') CONTROL: mean turn rate deg/tick, 40 ticks later
|
|
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
|
|
0-100 - 3.07 - 2.91 3.18
|
|
n=0 n=5 n=0 n=2 n=15
|
|
100-200 2.93 2.20 2.61 3.04 2.61
|
|
n=3 n=44 n=5 n=23 n=174
|
|
200-300 2.80 1.78 1.35 2.19 3.17
|
|
n=6 n=127 n=21 n=780 n=37
|
|
300-450 1.31 1.44 1.38 1.57 2.99
|
|
n=295 n=5211 n=878 n=10696 n=1
|
|
450+ 1.30 1.52 1.54 1.58 -
|
|
n=886 n=12902 n=2423 n=20126 n=0
|
|
|
|
(d) MEAN SPEED px/tick, flight window
|
|
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
|
|
0-100 - 7.39 - 8.00 7.45
|
|
n=0 n=6 n=0 n=2 n=19
|
|
100-200 5.73 6.05 4.83 6.05 5.87
|
|
n=5 n=53 n=5 n=23 n=191
|
|
200-300 6.18 5.39 5.64 5.44 6.20
|
|
n=6 n=130 n=21 n=780 n=56
|
|
300-450 5.41 5.49 5.53 5.49 3.94
|
|
n=333 n=5272 n=880 n=10696 n=1
|
|
450+ 5.37 5.46 5.44 5.48 -
|
|
n=950 n=12960 n=2424 n=20126 n=0
|
|
|
|
(d'') CONTROL: mean speed px/tick, 40 ticks later
|
|
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
|
|
0-100 - 6.07 - 6.23 6.33
|
|
n=0 n=5 n=0 n=2 n=15
|
|
100-200 5.23 5.84 3.45 5.86 5.73
|
|
n=3 n=44 n=5 n=23 n=174
|
|
200-300 6.32 5.63 6.45 5.48 6.53
|
|
n=6 n=127 n=21 n=780 n=37
|
|
300-450 5.48 5.50 5.56 5.45 5.37
|
|
n=295 n=5211 n=878 n=10696 n=1
|
|
450+ 5.37 5.46 5.46 5.47 -
|
|
n=886 n=12902 n=2423 n=20126 n=0
|
|
|
|
(e) fraction where |perp| GREW (moved further off the line)
|
|
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
|
|
0-100 - 0.50 - 0.50 0.63
|
|
n=0 n=6 n=0 n=2 n=19
|
|
100-200 0.40 0.40 0.60 0.52 0.60
|
|
n=5 n=53 n=5 n=23 n=191
|
|
200-300 0.50 0.54 0.52 0.59 0.77
|
|
n=6 n=130 n=21 n=780 n=56
|
|
300-450 0.54 0.57 0.59 0.60 1.00
|
|
n=333 n=5272 n=880 n=10696 n=1
|
|
450+ 0.56 0.59 0.60 0.61 -
|
|
n=950 n=12960 n=2424 n=20126 n=0
|
|
|
|
OUTCOME hit rate (real server events)
|
|
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
|
|
0-100 - 0.67 - 0.50 0.32
|
|
n=0 n=6 n=0 n=2 n=19
|
|
100-200 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.39 0.20
|
|
n=5 n=53 n=5 n=23 n=191
|
|
200-300 0.50 0.18 0.10 0.16 0.07
|
|
n=6 n=130 n=21 n=780 n=56
|
|
300-450 0.03 0.11 0.13 0.12 0.00
|
|
n=333 n=5272 n=880 n=10696 n=1
|
|
450+ 0.01 0.10 0.09 0.09 -
|
|
n=950 n=12960 n=2424 n=20126 n=0
|
|
|
|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
|
SHUFFLED-LABEL NULL (labels permuted WITHIN each range band, 400 reps)
|
|
For the arrival-dependent metrics the arrival tick is RE-DERIVED from the permuted power,
|
|
so the null keeps the kinematic channel (a slower bullet really does arrive later) and destroys
|
|
only the response. p is the two-sided permutation p on delta = mean(HIGH) - mean(LOW) inside that band.
|
|
miss 0-100 n/a 100-200 d=+5.354(null sd=7.077,p=0.893) 200-300 d=+0.348(null sd=4.611,p=0.389) 300-450 d=+5.913(null sd=1.285,p=0.274) 450+ d=+8.238(null sd=1.040,p=0.005)
|
|
miss_per_tick 0-100 n/a 100-200 d=-0.354(null sd=0.692,p=0.623) 200-300 d=-0.342(null sd=0.332,p=0.524) 300-450 d=+0.026(null sd=0.064,p=0.010) 450+ d=-0.008(null sd=0.040,p=0.005)
|
|
lat_disp_abs 0-100 n/a 100-200 d=+19.401(null sd=7.561,p=0.075) 200-300 d=+11.592(null sd=3.772,p=0.075) 300-450 d=+3.497(null sd=0.895,p=0.444) 450+ d=+5.865(null sd=0.679,p=0.005)
|
|
flight 0-100 n/a 100-200 d=+1.473(null sd=0.557,p=0.584) 200-300 d=+1.553(null sd=0.209,p=0.319) 300-450 d=+1.349(null sd=0.044,p=0.005) 450+ d=+2.131(null sd=0.039,p=0.015)
|
|
lat_fixed_abs 0-100 n/a 100-200 d=+16.205(null sd=6.822,p=0.020) 200-300 d=+2.890(null sd=2.739,p=0.269) 300-450 d=-1.453(null sd=0.521,p=0.005) 450+ d=-0.154(null sd=0.340,p=0.663)
|
|
lat_ctrl_abs 0-100 n/a 100-200 d=+3.671(null sd=7.943,p=0.683) 200-300 d=+5.532(null sd=2.951,p=0.095) 300-450 d=-0.846(null sd=0.492,p=0.095) 450+ d=+0.610(null sd=0.339,p=0.080)
|
|
latency 0-100 n/a 100-200 d=+0.093(null sd=1.210,p=0.898) 200-300 d=-1.349(null sd=0.628,p=0.035) 300-450 d=-0.094(null sd=0.145,p=0.484) 450+ d=+0.677(null sd=0.117,p=0.005)
|
|
turn_fixed 0-100 n/a 100-200 d=+0.574(null sd=0.406,p=0.150) 200-300 d=+0.316(null sd=0.147,p=0.040) 300-450 d=+0.034(null sd=0.021,p=0.125) 450+ d=-0.148(null sd=0.012,p=0.005)
|
|
turn_ctrl 0-100 n/a 100-200 d=+0.839(null sd=0.442,p=0.060) 200-300 d=+0.407(null sd=0.154,p=0.005) 300-450 d=+0.135(null sd=0.021,p=0.005) 450+ d=+0.064(null sd=0.014,p=0.005)
|
|
speed_fixed 0-100 n/a 100-200 d=+0.086(null sd=0.533,p=0.913) 200-300 d=+0.021(null sd=0.177,p=0.853) 300-450 d=-0.050(null sd=0.033,p=0.135) 450+ d=-0.007(null sd=0.022,p=0.758)
|
|
hit 0-100 n/a 100-200 d=+0.089(null sd=0.115,p=0.574) 200-300 d=-0.022(null sd=0.034,p=0.668) 300-450 d=+0.004(null sd=0.005,p=0.429) 450+ d=-0.013(null sd=0.003,p=0.005)
|
|
|
|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
|
FIXED-HORIZON TEST (no arrival tick, no flight-window confound)
|
|
|perpendicular offset of DrussGT from our aim line| at k ticks after the fire (flight window),
|
|
and the same quantity in the CONTROL window at k+40 ticks, when the bullet is long gone.
|
|
A response to our shot would be ~0 at k=5 and grow with k; a phase/geometry difference is
|
|
present at k=5 and identical in the control.
|
|
band 200-300 (nLOW=130 nHIGH=780 per k)
|
|
k= 5 flight: LOW= 55.5 HIGH= 54.0 d= -1.50 | control(+40): LOW= 132.6 HIGH= 136.8 d= +4.11
|
|
k=10 flight: LOW= 60.1 HIGH= 57.4 d= -2.76 | control(+40): LOW= 141.8 HIGH= 144.8 d= +3.00
|
|
k=15 flight: LOW= 72.4 HIGH= 69.1 d= -3.28 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
|
|
k=20 flight: LOW= 83.8 HIGH= 82.5 d= -1.29 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
|
|
k=25 flight: LOW= 94.5 HIGH= 93.8 d= -0.69 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
|
|
k=30 flight: LOW= 104.2 HIGH= 105.2 d= +1.05 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
|
|
band 300-450 (nLOW=5272 nHIGH=10696 per k)
|
|
k= 5 flight: LOW= 80.1 HIGH= 82.8 d= +2.67 | control(+40): LOW= 140.1 HIGH= 141.5 d= +1.35
|
|
k=10 flight: LOW= 80.3 HIGH= 83.4 d= +3.17 | control(+40): LOW= 145.8 HIGH= 146.7 d= +0.91
|
|
k=15 flight: LOW= 87.9 HIGH= 91.4 d= +3.46 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
|
|
k=20 flight: LOW= 99.5 HIGH= 102.4 d= +2.95 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
|
|
k=25 flight: LOW= 111.0 HIGH= 113.5 d= +2.46 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
|
|
k=30 flight: LOW= 120.3 HIGH= 122.5 d= +2.20 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
|
|
band 450+ (nLOW=12960 nHIGH=20126 per k)
|
|
k= 5 flight: LOW= 94.9 HIGH= 99.1 d= +4.21 | control(+40): LOW= 144.2 HIGH= 149.7 d= +5.57
|
|
k=10 flight: LOW= 95.0 HIGH= 98.9 d= +3.86 | control(+40): LOW= 147.8 HIGH= 153.1 d= +5.23
|
|
k=15 flight: LOW= 100.7 HIGH= 104.3 d= +3.53 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
|
|
k=20 flight: LOW= 109.0 HIGH= 112.5 d= +3.50 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
|
|
k=25 flight: LOW= 118.7 HIGH= 122.6 d= +3.83 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
|
|
k=30 flight: LOW= 127.7 HIGH= 132.5 d= +4.74 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
|
|
|
|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
|
FLIGHT- *AND* RANGE-MATCHED CONTRAST (kinematics and range both removed)
|
|
Within each range band we compare LOW vs HIGH power only inside the SAME cell = (integer
|
|
flight window, 50 px range sub-bin), pooling the per-cell differences with n weights. A longer
|
|
window lets DrussGT drift further off the line; at a fixed window a slower bullet implies a
|
|
shorter range and the gun's aim error grows with range. Anything left here is neither.
|
|
band obs d n used bins | null sd p_two
|
|
200-300 +19.25 480 7 | 5.28 0.005
|
|
300-450 +38.59 15455 28 | 1.17 0.005
|
|
450+ +59.05 29975 46 | 1.09 0.005
|
|
|
|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
|
HEADLINE WITHIN-BAND CONTRAST LOW p in [0.50,0.75) vs HIGH p in [1.00,1.50)
|
|
(HELD fixed inside each range band; 95%% CI from a ROUND-cluster bootstrap)
|
|
|
|
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
|
|
miss 0-100 6 2 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
miss 100-200 53 23 | 43.03 47.92 +4.89 [-18.33,+31.08]
|
|
miss 200-300 130 780 | 74.31 74.72 +0.40 [-11.42,+11.93]
|
|
miss 300-450 5272 10696 | 104.67 110.55 +5.88 [+2.64,+9.07]
|
|
miss 450+ 12960 20126 | 124.01 132.26 +8.25 [+5.39,+11.25]
|
|
|
|
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
|
|
miss_per_tick 0-100 6 2 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
miss_per_tick 100-200 53 23 | 4.45 4.05 -0.40 [-2.84,+2.26]
|
|
miss_per_tick 200-300 130 780 | 5.01 4.67 -0.34 [-1.16,+0.46]
|
|
miss_per_tick 300-450 5272 10696 | 4.85 4.88 +0.03 [-0.13,+0.17]
|
|
miss_per_tick 450+ 12960 20126 | 4.52 4.51 -0.01 [-0.12,+0.10]
|
|
|
|
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
|
|
lat_disp_abs 0-100 6 2 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
lat_disp_abs 100-200 53 23 | 37.57 56.50 +18.93 [-3.78,+41.06]
|
|
lat_disp_abs 200-300 130 780 | 59.91 71.56 +11.64 [-0.85,+25.19]
|
|
lat_disp_abs 300-450 5272 10696 | 88.47 91.94 +3.47 [+0.78,+6.28]
|
|
lat_disp_abs 450+ 12960 20126 | 97.42 103.30 +5.88 [+3.44,+8.31]
|
|
|
|
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
|
|
lat_disp_per_tick 0-100 6 2 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
lat_disp_per_tick 100-200 53 23 | 3.44 4.76 +1.33 [-0.48,+3.23]
|
|
lat_disp_per_tick 200-300 130 780 | 3.79 4.12 +0.33 [-0.39,+1.14]
|
|
lat_disp_per_tick 300-450 5272 10696 | 3.94 3.86 -0.08 [-0.19,+0.03]
|
|
lat_disp_per_tick 450+ 12960 20126 | 3.47 3.42 -0.04 [-0.12,+0.03]
|
|
|
|
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
|
|
lat_fixed_abs 0-100 6 2 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
lat_fixed_abs 100-200 52 23 | 43.26 59.47 +16.21 [-4.15,+37.80]
|
|
lat_fixed_abs 200-300 130 780 | 47.20 50.09 +2.89 [-5.91,+12.89]
|
|
lat_fixed_abs 300-450 5272 10696 | 54.20 52.75 -1.45 [-2.96,+0.08]
|
|
lat_fixed_abs 450+ 12960 20126 | 55.63 55.47 -0.15 [-1.15,+0.84]
|
|
|
|
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
|
|
lat_ctrl_abs 0-100 5 2 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
lat_ctrl_abs 100-200 41 23 | 46.92 50.59 +3.67 [-19.55,+27.70]
|
|
lat_ctrl_abs 200-300 127 780 | 43.68 49.21 +5.53 [-3.87,+15.33]
|
|
lat_ctrl_abs 300-450 5155 10695 | 52.80 51.95 -0.85 [-2.20,+0.67]
|
|
lat_ctrl_abs 450+ 12828 20120 | 52.03 52.64 +0.61 [-0.38,+1.58]
|
|
|
|
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
|
|
flight 0-100 6 2 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
flight 100-200 53 23 | 10.42 11.87 +1.45 [-0.38,+3.14]
|
|
flight 200-300 130 780 | 15.28 16.86 +1.58 [+0.96,+2.18]
|
|
flight 300-450 5272 10696 | 22.36 23.70 +1.35 [+1.18,+1.52]
|
|
flight 450+ 12960 20126 | 28.38 30.52 +2.13 [+1.81,+2.44]
|
|
|
|
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
|
|
latency 0-100 5 2 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
latency 100-200 29 16 | 6.34 6.44 +0.09 [-4.23,+3.45]
|
|
latency 200-300 78 566 | 9.03 7.68 -1.35 [-2.92,+0.21]
|
|
latency 300-450 2968 6860 | 11.55 11.46 -0.09 [-0.47,+0.30]
|
|
latency 450+ 8682 13884 | 13.60 14.27 +0.68 [+0.36,+0.99]
|
|
|
|
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
|
|
turn_flight 0-100 6 2 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
turn_flight 100-200 53 23 | 2.01 2.86 +0.85 [-0.33,+2.21]
|
|
turn_flight 200-300 130 780 | 2.08 2.49 +0.40 [-0.08,+0.92]
|
|
turn_flight 300-450 5272 10696 | 1.48 1.61 +0.13 [+0.05,+0.21]
|
|
turn_flight 450+ 12960 20126 | 1.49 1.46 -0.03 [-0.09,+0.02]
|
|
|
|
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
|
|
turn_fixed 0-100 6 2 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
turn_fixed 100-200 53 23 | 2.09 2.66 +0.57 [-0.54,+1.89]
|
|
turn_fixed 200-300 130 780 | 1.91 2.22 +0.32 [-0.15,+0.79]
|
|
turn_fixed 300-450 5272 10696 | 1.46 1.50 +0.03 [-0.04,+0.11]
|
|
turn_fixed 450+ 12960 20126 | 1.43 1.28 -0.15 [-0.20,-0.10]
|
|
|
|
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
|
|
turn_ctrl 0-100 5 2 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
turn_ctrl 100-200 44 23 | 2.20 3.04 +0.84 [-0.35,+2.28]
|
|
turn_ctrl 200-300 127 780 | 1.78 2.19 +0.41 [-0.04,+0.88]
|
|
turn_ctrl 300-450 5211 10696 | 1.44 1.57 +0.13 [+0.05,+0.21]
|
|
turn_ctrl 450+ 12902 20126 | 1.52 1.58 +0.06 [+0.01,+0.12]
|
|
|
|
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
|
|
speed_flight 0-100 6 2 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
speed_flight 100-200 53 23 | 6.05 6.05 +0.00 [-1.80,+1.55]
|
|
speed_flight 200-300 130 780 | 5.39 5.44 +0.05 [-0.51,+0.59]
|
|
speed_flight 300-450 5272 10696 | 5.49 5.49 +0.01 [-0.08,+0.10]
|
|
speed_flight 450+ 12960 20126 | 5.46 5.48 +0.01 [-0.06,+0.08]
|
|
|
|
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
|
|
speed_ctrl 0-100 5 2 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
speed_ctrl 100-200 44 23 | 5.84 5.86 +0.01 [-1.55,+1.45]
|
|
speed_ctrl 200-300 127 780 | 5.63 5.48 -0.16 [-0.82,+0.43]
|
|
speed_ctrl 300-450 5211 10696 | 5.50 5.45 -0.05 [-0.14,+0.05]
|
|
speed_ctrl 450+ 12902 20126 | 5.46 5.47 +0.01 [-0.06,+0.09]
|
|
|
|
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
|
|
hit 0-100 6 2 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
hit 100-200 53 23 | 0.30 0.39 +0.09 [-0.33,+0.44]
|
|
hit 200-300 130 780 | 0.18 0.16 -0.02 [-0.10,+0.05]
|
|
hit 300-450 5272 10696 | 0.11 0.12 +0.00 [-0.01,+0.02]
|
|
hit 450+ 12960 20126 | 0.10 0.09 -0.01 [-0.02,-0.00]
|
|
|
|
OUR fired-power histogram (exact values, top 12):
|
|
1.00:31641 0.50:14182 0.10:627 0.51:222 0.55:203 0.53:195 0.60:193 0.58:192 0.59:192 0.62:190 0.54:189 0.57:184
|
|
========================================================================================================
|
|
CORPUS powtest 35 battles 245 rounds 24280 usable shots by US (ModularBot)
|
|
attribution: owner id -> {e=DrussGT, s=us} recovered per battle from fire geometry+energy;
|
|
cross-checked on the death events: 246/246 deaths have the mapped victim at ~0 energy
|
|
(attribution is per-battle because the Tank Royale owner id is not stable across runs)
|
|
|
|
>> THE CONFOUNDER IS REAL: our fired power is a range + energy cap
|
|
band power shots firePx ourE enemyE flight
|
|
100-200 1.00-1.50 8 179.5 77.7 79.5 13.25
|
|
100-200 >=1.50 74 169.5 84.3 82.3 14.72
|
|
200-300 0.50-0.75 16 262.3 21.6 33.5 15.44
|
|
200-300 1.00-1.50 406 260.5 83.1 82.2 16.51
|
|
200-300 >=1.50 17 246.1 37.9 22.0 21.00
|
|
300-450 <0.50 51 410.0 30.7 2.7 21.00
|
|
300-450 0.50-0.75 1388 412.6 14.4 17.9 22.36
|
|
300-450 0.75-1.00 254 412.0 29.0 23.1 23.52
|
|
300-450 1.00-1.50 8151 404.0 59.6 54.1 23.78
|
|
450+ <0.50 115 533.7 18.7 1.7 26.86
|
|
450+ 0.50-0.75 2249 524.9 13.6 17.8 27.75
|
|
450+ 0.75-1.00 456 526.4 28.8 25.2 29.26
|
|
450+ 1.00-1.50 11085 525.3 52.6 46.0 29.93
|
|
|
|
(a) MISS AT ARRIVAL px - perpendicular offset of DrussGT from our aim line
|
|
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
|
|
0-100 - - - 28.34 34.35
|
|
n=0 n=0 n=0 n=2 n=4
|
|
100-200 - 58.35 - 32.74 62.45
|
|
n=0 n=1 n=0 n=8 n=74
|
|
200-300 - 70.50 71.07 73.03 112.28
|
|
n=0 n=16 n=3 n=406 n=17
|
|
300-450 100.28 106.22 111.86 109.93 -
|
|
n=51 n=1388 n=254 n=8151 n=0
|
|
450+ 131.41 122.00 130.11 131.86 -
|
|
n=115 n=2249 n=456 n=11085 n=0
|
|
|
|
(a') MISS AT ARRIVAL / flight ticks (px per tick - power-neutral)
|
|
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
|
|
0-100 - - - 3.15 2.89
|
|
n=0 n=0 n=0 n=2 n=4
|
|
100-200 - 7.29 - 2.51 4.57
|
|
n=0 n=1 n=0 n=8 n=74
|
|
200-300 - 4.86 4.68 4.68 5.46
|
|
n=0 n=16 n=3 n=406 n=17
|
|
300-450 4.93 4.94 4.96 4.83 -
|
|
n=51 n=1388 n=254 n=8151 n=0
|
|
450+ 5.02 4.56 4.64 4.59 -
|
|
n=115 n=2249 n=456 n=11085 n=0
|
|
|
|
(b) LATERAL DISPLACEMENT px over the flight window
|
|
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
|
|
0-100 - - - 50.56 59.97
|
|
n=0 n=0 n=0 n=2 n=4
|
|
100-200 - 6.28 - 71.40 63.01
|
|
n=0 n=1 n=0 n=8 n=74
|
|
200-300 - 58.55 61.90 71.26 109.05
|
|
n=0 n=16 n=3 n=406 n=17
|
|
300-450 68.90 91.35 94.37 93.56 -
|
|
n=51 n=1388 n=254 n=8151 n=0
|
|
450+ 104.97 96.90 102.50 102.74 -
|
|
n=115 n=2249 n=456 n=11085 n=0
|
|
|
|
(b/ ) LATERAL DISPLACEMENT / flight ticks (px per tick - power-neutral)
|
|
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
|
|
0-100 - - - 5.62 5.11
|
|
n=0 n=0 n=0 n=2 n=4
|
|
100-200 - 0.78 - 5.34 4.12
|
|
n=0 n=1 n=0 n=8 n=74
|
|
200-300 - 3.70 3.43 4.22 5.04
|
|
n=0 n=16 n=3 n=406 n=17
|
|
300-450 3.29 4.07 4.00 3.91 -
|
|
n=51 n=1388 n=254 n=8151 n=0
|
|
450+ 3.93 3.53 3.54 3.48 -
|
|
n=115 n=2249 n=456 n=11085 n=0
|
|
|
|
(b') LATERAL DISPLACEMENT px over a FIXED 12-tick window (power-neutral)
|
|
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
|
|
0-100 - - - 72.08 63.83
|
|
n=0 n=0 n=0 n=2 n=4
|
|
100-200 - 3.66 - 63.36 49.33
|
|
n=0 n=1 n=0 n=8 n=74
|
|
200-300 - 41.73 28.58 50.71 54.65
|
|
n=0 n=16 n=3 n=406 n=17
|
|
300-450 46.10 53.99 54.21 53.41 -
|
|
n=51 n=1388 n=254 n=8151 n=0
|
|
450+ 61.58 55.53 56.08 55.85 -
|
|
n=115 n=2249 n=456 n=11085 n=0
|
|
|
|
(b'') CONTROL: lateral displacement px, SAME shot, 40 ticks later (bullet gone)
|
|
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
|
|
0-100 - - - 6.62 55.92
|
|
n=0 n=0 n=0 n=1 n=3
|
|
100-200 - 20.12 - 53.96 51.68
|
|
n=0 n=1 n=0 n=8 n=69
|
|
200-300 - 51.96 42.95 50.50 46.25
|
|
n=0 n=15 n=3 n=405 n=9
|
|
300-450 39.77 53.98 53.45 52.69 -
|
|
n=43 n=1362 n=252 n=8118 n=0
|
|
450+ 57.71 52.62 51.98 53.00 -
|
|
n=95 n=2212 n=454 n=11037 n=0
|
|
|
|
(f) FLIGHT WINDOW LENGTH ticks (low power = FASTER bullet = shorter)
|
|
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
|
|
0-100 - - - 9.00 11.50
|
|
n=0 n=0 n=0 n=2 n=4
|
|
100-200 - 8.00 - 13.25 14.72
|
|
n=0 n=1 n=0 n=8 n=74
|
|
200-300 - 15.44 16.67 16.51 21.00
|
|
n=0 n=16 n=3 n=406 n=17
|
|
300-450 21.00 22.36 23.52 23.78 -
|
|
n=51 n=1388 n=254 n=8151 n=0
|
|
450+ 26.86 27.75 29.26 29.93 -
|
|
n=115 n=2249 n=456 n=11085 n=0
|
|
|
|
(c) RESPONSE LATENCY ticks to a >15 deg heading turn
|
|
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
|
|
0-100 - - - 5.50 4.00
|
|
n=0 n=0 n=0 n=2 n=3
|
|
100-200 - 2.00 - 9.25 7.40
|
|
n=0 n=1 n=0 n=4 n=53
|
|
200-300 - 9.29 10.50 7.58 9.21
|
|
n=0 n=7 n=2 n=303 n=14
|
|
300-450 11.86 12.03 13.06 11.75 -
|
|
n=22 n=743 n=152 n=5004 n=0
|
|
450+ 13.79 13.89 14.27 14.36 -
|
|
n=70 n=1457 n=313 n=7615 n=0
|
|
|
|
(d) MEAN TURN RATE deg/tick, flight window
|
|
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
|
|
0-100 - - - 2.85 3.72
|
|
n=0 n=0 n=0 n=2 n=4
|
|
100-200 - 3.76 - 1.52 2.60
|
|
n=0 n=1 n=0 n=8 n=74
|
|
200-300 - 1.86 1.48 2.49 2.01
|
|
n=0 n=16 n=3 n=406 n=17
|
|
300-450 1.28 1.42 1.43 1.55 -
|
|
n=51 n=1388 n=254 n=8151 n=0
|
|
450+ 1.42 1.45 1.41 1.42 -
|
|
n=115 n=2249 n=456 n=11085 n=0
|
|
|
|
(d') MEAN TURN RATE deg/tick, fixed 12-tick window
|
|
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
|
|
0-100 - - - 2.98 3.38
|
|
n=0 n=0 n=0 n=2 n=4
|
|
100-200 - 4.90 - 1.32 2.41
|
|
n=0 n=1 n=0 n=8 n=74
|
|
200-300 - 1.68 1.29 2.20 2.38
|
|
n=0 n=16 n=3 n=406 n=17
|
|
300-450 1.29 1.39 1.35 1.43 -
|
|
n=51 n=1388 n=254 n=8151 n=0
|
|
450+ 1.39 1.40 1.37 1.25 -
|
|
n=115 n=2249 n=456 n=11085 n=0
|
|
|
|
(d'') CONTROL: mean turn rate deg/tick, 40 ticks later
|
|
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
|
|
0-100 - - - 4.12 3.24
|
|
n=0 n=0 n=0 n=1 n=3
|
|
100-200 - 4.93 - 2.58 2.32
|
|
n=0 n=1 n=0 n=8 n=70
|
|
200-300 - 1.96 2.13 2.24 3.14
|
|
n=0 n=15 n=3 n=405 n=11
|
|
300-450 1.11 1.39 1.45 1.55 -
|
|
n=47 n=1377 n=253 n=8135 n=0
|
|
450+ 1.34 1.49 1.45 1.54 -
|
|
n=105 n=2231 n=455 n=11069 n=0
|
|
|
|
(d) MEAN SPEED px/tick, flight window
|
|
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
|
|
0-100 - - - 8.00 7.01
|
|
n=0 n=0 n=0 n=2 n=4
|
|
100-200 - 2.25 - 6.77 5.45
|
|
n=0 n=1 n=0 n=8 n=74
|
|
200-300 - 5.16 5.82 5.48 6.04
|
|
n=0 n=16 n=3 n=406 n=17
|
|
300-450 4.81 5.50 5.56 5.51 -
|
|
n=51 n=1388 n=254 n=8151 n=0
|
|
450+ 5.74 5.43 5.54 5.51 -
|
|
n=115 n=2249 n=456 n=11085 n=0
|
|
|
|
(d'') CONTROL: mean speed px/tick, 40 ticks later
|
|
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
|
|
0-100 - - - 4.08 6.49
|
|
n=0 n=0 n=0 n=1 n=3
|
|
100-200 - 4.08 - 5.97 5.88
|
|
n=0 n=1 n=0 n=8 n=70
|
|
200-300 - 5.50 5.18 5.61 6.99
|
|
n=0 n=15 n=3 n=405 n=11
|
|
300-450 4.60 5.54 5.53 5.47 -
|
|
n=47 n=1377 n=253 n=8135 n=0
|
|
450+ 5.66 5.46 5.47 5.51 -
|
|
n=105 n=2231 n=455 n=11069 n=0
|
|
|
|
(e) fraction where |perp| GREW (moved further off the line)
|
|
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
|
|
0-100 - - - 0.50 0.50
|
|
n=0 n=0 n=0 n=2 n=4
|
|
100-200 - 1.00 - 0.25 0.58
|
|
n=0 n=1 n=0 n=8 n=74
|
|
200-300 - 0.56 0.67 0.58 0.82
|
|
n=0 n=16 n=3 n=406 n=17
|
|
300-450 0.55 0.61 0.59 0.59 -
|
|
n=51 n=1388 n=254 n=8151 n=0
|
|
450+ 0.59 0.58 0.58 0.61 -
|
|
n=115 n=2249 n=456 n=11085 n=0
|
|
|
|
OUTCOME hit rate (real server events)
|
|
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
|
|
0-100 - - - 0.50 0.50
|
|
n=0 n=0 n=0 n=2 n=4
|
|
100-200 - 0.00 - 0.50 0.20
|
|
n=0 n=1 n=0 n=8 n=74
|
|
200-300 - 0.19 0.33 0.16 0.00
|
|
n=0 n=16 n=3 n=406 n=17
|
|
300-450 0.00 0.12 0.12 0.12 -
|
|
n=51 n=1388 n=254 n=8151 n=0
|
|
450+ 0.02 0.10 0.10 0.09 -
|
|
n=115 n=2249 n=456 n=11085 n=0
|
|
|
|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
|
SHUFFLED-LABEL NULL (labels permuted WITHIN each range band, 400 reps)
|
|
For the arrival-dependent metrics the arrival tick is RE-DERIVED from the permuted power,
|
|
so the null keeps the kinematic channel (a slower bullet really does arrive later) and destroys
|
|
only the response. p is the two-sided permutation p on delta = mean(HIGH) - mean(LOW) inside that band.
|
|
miss 0-100 n/a 100-200 n/a 200-300 d=+3.592(null sd=12.030,p=0.993) 300-450 d=+3.788(null sd=2.135,p=0.793) 450+ d=+9.865(null sd=1.815,p=0.005)
|
|
miss_per_tick 0-100 n/a 100-200 n/a 200-300 d=-0.124(null sd=0.878,p=0.948) 300-450 d=-0.100(null sd=0.107,p=0.514) 450+ d=+0.031(null sd=0.074,p=0.005)
|
|
lat_disp_abs 0-100 n/a 100-200 n/a 200-300 d=+13.420(null sd=10.885,p=0.439) 300-450 d=+2.201(null sd=1.619,p=0.200) 450+ d=+5.908(null sd=1.474,p=0.160)
|
|
flight 0-100 n/a 100-200 n/a 200-300 d=+1.200(null sd=0.588,p=0.933) 300-450 d=+1.419(null sd=0.071,p=0.005) 450+ d=+2.177(null sd=0.078,p=0.818)
|
|
lat_fixed_abs 0-100 n/a 100-200 n/a 200-300 d=+8.977(null sd=6.784,p=0.195) 300-450 d=-0.580(null sd=0.874,p=0.484) 450+ d=+0.315(null sd=0.672,p=0.603)
|
|
lat_ctrl_abs 0-100 n/a 100-200 n/a 200-300 d=-1.460(null sd=7.562,p=0.783) 300-450 d=-1.285(null sd=0.876,p=0.155) 450+ d=+0.386(null sd=0.653,p=0.519)
|
|
latency 0-100 n/a 100-200 n/a 200-300 n/a 300-450 d=-0.285(null sd=0.258,p=0.279) 450+ d=+0.473(null sd=0.236,p=0.045)
|
|
turn_fixed 0-100 n/a 100-200 n/a 200-300 d=+0.514(null sd=0.383,p=0.195) 300-450 d=+0.040(null sd=0.036,p=0.254) 450+ d=-0.157(null sd=0.027,p=0.005)
|
|
turn_ctrl 0-100 n/a 100-200 n/a 200-300 d=+0.279(null sd=0.395,p=0.494) 300-450 d=+0.156(null sd=0.040,p=0.005) 450+ d=+0.052(null sd=0.027,p=0.055)
|
|
speed_fixed 0-100 n/a 100-200 n/a 200-300 d=+0.331(null sd=0.467,p=0.504) 300-450 d=+0.029(null sd=0.055,p=0.648) 450+ d=+0.053(null sd=0.042,p=0.200)
|
|
hit 0-100 n/a 100-200 n/a 200-300 d=-0.025(null sd=0.094,p=1.000) 300-450 d=-0.002(null sd=0.009,p=0.918) 450+ d=-0.007(null sd=0.006,p=0.344)
|
|
|
|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
|
FIXED-HORIZON TEST (no arrival tick, no flight-window confound)
|
|
|perpendicular offset of DrussGT from our aim line| at k ticks after the fire (flight window),
|
|
and the same quantity in the CONTROL window at k+40 ticks, when the bullet is long gone.
|
|
A response to our shot would be ~0 at k=5 and grow with k; a phase/geometry difference is
|
|
present at k=5 and identical in the control.
|
|
band 200-300 (nLOW=16 nHIGH=406 per k)
|
|
k= 5 flight: LOW= 54.8 HIGH= 54.5 d= -0.24 | control(+40): LOW= 123.5 HIGH= 134.1 d=+10.56
|
|
k=10 flight: LOW= 58.3 HIGH= 57.3 d= -1.02 | control(+40): LOW= 138.4 HIGH= 142.9 d= +4.52
|
|
k=15 flight: LOW= 69.1 HIGH= 69.6 d= +0.52 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
|
|
k=20 flight: LOW= 77.8 HIGH= 83.8 d= +6.03 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
|
|
k=25 flight: LOW= 84.9 HIGH= 96.8 d=+11.83 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
|
|
k=30 flight: LOW= 98.6 HIGH= 108.8 d=+10.24 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
|
|
band 300-450 (nLOW=1388 nHIGH=8151 per k)
|
|
k= 5 flight: LOW= 78.4 HIGH= 84.0 d= +5.62 | control(+40): LOW= 143.3 HIGH= 141.4 d= -1.87
|
|
k=10 flight: LOW= 79.1 HIGH= 84.0 d= +4.83 | control(+40): LOW= 149.7 HIGH= 147.2 d= -2.52
|
|
k=15 flight: LOW= 88.3 HIGH= 91.5 d= +3.15 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
|
|
k=20 flight: LOW= 101.0 HIGH= 102.3 d= +1.29 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
|
|
k=25 flight: LOW= 112.2 HIGH= 112.9 d= +0.70 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
|
|
k=30 flight: LOW= 121.1 HIGH= 121.8 d= +0.60 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
|
|
band 450+ (nLOW=2249 nHIGH=11085 per k)
|
|
k= 5 flight: LOW= 93.0 HIGH= 99.0 d= +5.97 | control(+40): LOW= 143.7 HIGH= 150.3 d= +6.59
|
|
k=10 flight: LOW= 93.3 HIGH= 99.1 d= +5.83 | control(+40): LOW= 147.7 HIGH= 153.8 d= +6.03
|
|
k=15 flight: LOW= 99.4 HIGH= 104.9 d= +5.50 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
|
|
k=20 flight: LOW= 108.1 HIGH= 113.2 d= +5.12 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
|
|
k=25 flight: LOW= 118.3 HIGH= 123.5 d= +5.13 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
|
|
k=30 flight: LOW= 126.7 HIGH= 133.3 d= +6.61 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
|
|
|
|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
|
FLIGHT- *AND* RANGE-MATCHED CONTRAST (kinematics and range both removed)
|
|
Within each range band we compare LOW vs HIGH power only inside the SAME cell = (integer
|
|
flight window, 50 px range sub-bin), pooling the per-cell differences with n weights. A longer
|
|
window lets DrussGT drift further off the line; at a fixed window a slower bullet implies a
|
|
shorter range and the gun's aim error grows with range. Anything left here is neither.
|
|
band obs d n used bins | null sd p_two
|
|
300-450 +37.84 8588 23 | 2.32 0.005
|
|
450+ +57.39 10809 34 | 2.31 0.005
|
|
|
|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
|
HEADLINE WITHIN-BAND CONTRAST LOW p in [0.50,0.75) vs HIGH p in [1.00,1.50)
|
|
(HELD fixed inside each range band; 95%% CI from a ROUND-cluster bootstrap)
|
|
|
|
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
|
|
miss 0-100 0 2 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
miss 100-200 1 8 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
miss 200-300 16 406 | 70.50 73.03 +2.53 [-12.34,+28.80]
|
|
miss 300-450 1388 8151 | 106.22 109.93 +3.72 [-1.50,+8.65]
|
|
miss 450+ 2249 11085 | 122.00 131.86 +9.86 [+4.56,+15.25]
|
|
|
|
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
|
|
miss_per_tick 0-100 0 2 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
miss_per_tick 100-200 1 8 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
miss_per_tick 200-300 16 406 | 4.86 4.68 -0.19 [-1.31,+1.76]
|
|
miss_per_tick 300-450 1388 8151 | 4.94 4.83 -0.10 [-0.37,+0.15]
|
|
miss_per_tick 450+ 2249 11085 | 4.56 4.59 +0.03 [-0.19,+0.25]
|
|
|
|
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
|
|
lat_disp_abs 0-100 0 2 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
lat_disp_abs 100-200 1 8 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
lat_disp_abs 200-300 16 406 | 58.55 71.26 +12.71 [-18.26,+36.16]
|
|
lat_disp_abs 300-450 1388 8151 | 91.35 93.56 +2.21 [-2.02,+6.72]
|
|
lat_disp_abs 450+ 2249 11085 | 96.90 102.74 +5.84 [+1.65,+9.94]
|
|
|
|
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
|
|
lat_disp_per_tick 0-100 0 2 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
lat_disp_per_tick 100-200 1 8 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
lat_disp_per_tick 200-300 16 406 | 3.70 4.22 +0.52 [-0.90,+1.65]
|
|
lat_disp_per_tick 300-450 1388 8151 | 4.07 3.91 -0.16 [-0.32,+0.02]
|
|
lat_disp_per_tick 450+ 2249 11085 | 3.53 3.48 -0.05 [-0.20,+0.11]
|
|
|
|
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
|
|
lat_fixed_abs 0-100 0 2 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
lat_fixed_abs 100-200 1 8 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
lat_fixed_abs 200-300 16 406 | 41.73 50.71 +8.98 [-11.36,+23.25]
|
|
lat_fixed_abs 300-450 1388 8151 | 53.99 53.41 -0.58 [-3.07,+1.89]
|
|
lat_fixed_abs 450+ 2249 11085 | 55.53 55.85 +0.31 [-1.24,+1.87]
|
|
|
|
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
|
|
lat_ctrl_abs 0-100 0 1 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
lat_ctrl_abs 100-200 1 8 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
lat_ctrl_abs 200-300 15 405 | 51.96 50.50 -1.46 [-21.67,+14.83]
|
|
lat_ctrl_abs 300-450 1362 8118 | 53.98 52.69 -1.29 [-3.11,+0.47]
|
|
lat_ctrl_abs 450+ 2212 11037 | 52.62 53.00 +0.39 [-0.83,+1.57]
|
|
|
|
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
|
|
flight 0-100 0 2 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
flight 100-200 1 8 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
flight 200-300 16 406 | 15.44 16.51 +1.07 [-0.61,+2.99]
|
|
flight 300-450 1388 8151 | 22.36 23.78 +1.42 [+1.15,+1.68]
|
|
flight 450+ 2249 11085 | 27.75 29.93 +2.18 [+1.63,+2.73]
|
|
|
|
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
|
|
latency 0-100 0 2 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
latency 100-200 1 4 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
latency 200-300 7 303 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
latency 300-450 743 5004 | 12.03 11.75 -0.29 [-0.81,+0.25]
|
|
latency 450+ 1457 7615 | 13.89 14.36 +0.47 [-0.15,+1.14]
|
|
|
|
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
|
|
turn_flight 0-100 0 2 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
turn_flight 100-200 1 8 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
turn_flight 200-300 16 406 | 1.86 2.49 +0.62 [+0.33,+1.09]
|
|
turn_flight 300-450 1388 8151 | 1.42 1.55 +0.13 [+0.04,+0.23]
|
|
turn_flight 450+ 2249 11085 | 1.45 1.42 -0.03 [-0.13,+0.06]
|
|
|
|
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
|
|
turn_fixed 0-100 0 2 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
turn_fixed 100-200 1 8 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
turn_fixed 200-300 16 406 | 1.68 2.20 +0.51 [+0.11,+1.18]
|
|
turn_fixed 300-450 1388 8151 | 1.39 1.43 +0.04 [-0.06,+0.15]
|
|
turn_fixed 450+ 2249 11085 | 1.40 1.25 -0.16 [-0.26,-0.06]
|
|
|
|
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
|
|
turn_ctrl 0-100 0 1 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
turn_ctrl 100-200 1 8 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
turn_ctrl 200-300 15 405 | 1.96 2.24 +0.28 [-0.78,+0.97]
|
|
turn_ctrl 300-450 1377 8135 | 1.39 1.55 +0.16 [+0.04,+0.28]
|
|
turn_ctrl 450+ 2231 11069 | 1.49 1.54 +0.05 [-0.06,+0.15]
|
|
|
|
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
|
|
speed_flight 0-100 0 2 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
speed_flight 100-200 1 8 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
speed_flight 200-300 16 406 | 5.16 5.48 +0.31 [-0.96,+1.28]
|
|
speed_flight 300-450 1388 8151 | 5.50 5.51 +0.01 [-0.13,+0.14]
|
|
speed_flight 450+ 2249 11085 | 5.43 5.51 +0.08 [-0.02,+0.19]
|
|
|
|
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
|
|
speed_ctrl 0-100 0 1 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
speed_ctrl 100-200 1 8 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
speed_ctrl 200-300 15 405 | 5.50 5.61 +0.11 [-0.78,+1.18]
|
|
speed_ctrl 300-450 1377 8135 | 5.54 5.47 -0.07 [-0.20,+0.07]
|
|
speed_ctrl 450+ 2231 11069 | 5.46 5.51 +0.05 [-0.06,+0.15]
|
|
|
|
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
|
|
hit 0-100 0 2 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
hit 100-200 1 8 | (too few for a contrast)
|
|
hit 200-300 16 406 | 0.19 0.16 -0.02 [-0.17,+0.20]
|
|
hit 300-450 1388 8151 | 0.12 0.12 -0.00 [-0.03,+0.02]
|
|
hit 450+ 2249 11085 | 0.10 0.09 -0.01 [-0.02,+0.01]
|
|
|
|
OUR fired-power histogram (exact values, top 12):
|
|
1.00:19653 0.50:2760 2.00:64 0.62:61 0.90:56 0.52:56 0.10:56 0.57:54 0.59:53 0.67:49 0.65:47 0.64:44
|