SirStone
c07e6d9599
56/60 opponent-level win deltas are non-negative and no opponent family regresses reproducibly (the one WallAvoider loss reverses in Batch 2). corr(dwins, d_hit_rate) = -0.09, corr(dwins, d_damage) = +0.38: the aggregate win is a survival effect, but a per-opponent hit-rate gain does not predict a per-opponent win gain - so hit rate stays an explanation, never a proxy.
806 lines
55 KiB
Markdown
806 lines
55 KiB
Markdown
# Movement campaign — ledger
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**Goal (owner's mandate, 2026-09-26 overnight):** find the *best 1v1 movement*
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by measurement, then do the same for the gun. This file is the campaign's
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single source of truth: every later job **appends** a `## Batch N` section and
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never edits an earlier one (a wrong earlier number gets a correction line, not
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a rewrite).
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**Owner's words:** *"I want you to do all tests and checks with the goal to have
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the best 1vs1 movement. You have all night, you can change every parameter.
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Continue until you found an amazing movement. When found do the same over for a
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gun."*
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---
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## 0. The one caveat this campaign exists to close
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Everything measured about movement before this campaign is **DrussGT-only**:
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`docs/surfer_wiring_ab.md`, the j107 range drift, the j113 BitBrain movement
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notes. The standing lesson of the night is that a one-opponent result is not a
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result:
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> an arm can take fewer hits **and** win fewer rounds (j107 / `strafe`): the
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> verdict lives in **damage/run + ROUND WINS**, and hit rate is only ever an
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> explanation.
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So from here on **the unit of evidence is the number of opponents**, not the
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number of runs: the same arm must win on *many* opponents before it is called
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better.
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---
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## 1. Protocol (how every batch must be run)
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| Element | Rule |
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|---|---|
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| Subject | ONE frozen binary, built from `git archive HEAD` (`tools/ab/tournament_run.sh` does this; the commit sha and binary sha256 are recorded in `session.json`) |
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| Arms | env dicts only — **no per-arm rebuild, ever**; the arm file is a committed file, not a shell history |
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| Panel | the **frozen** panel `tools/ab/panel_movement.txt`. Adding/removing an opponent starts a **new batch number** |
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| Pairing | per opponent: average the arm's runs, subtract the reference arm's average for that same opponent → one delta per opponent; then aggregate |
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| Isolation | per-run bot dir + classic data dir, ephemeral ports, own process group; cleanup only by this session's outdir |
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| Serialization | **one battle fleet at a time.** `tournament_run.sh --wait-arena N` refuses/stalls while another job's `run_bridge_battle`/`TrBattleCapture`/`ModularBot_bin` is alive (bracketed pgrep; never a broad `pkill`) |
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| Liveness | every declared env token must appear verbatim in OUR bot's own `[env]` boot report, else the run is excluded and named in the report; an undeclared `TR_MOVEMENT` in the process env is a fatal FAIL for the reference arm |
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| Never shipped | this is a measurement + design campaign: `git status` clean, defaults untouched, `.gitignore` untouched |
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### Pre-registered decision rules (fixed BEFORE Batch 1 ran, commit `1984a78`)
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> Provenance note: the harness and these rules were written and staged before
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> Batch 1 was fought, but a parallel job's `git commit` (j116, same working
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> tree / same index) swept the staged files into **its** commit `1984a78`
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> ("melee A/B doc…"). The rules are therefore committed under a neighbour's
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> message — they are nonetheless dated before the data: no battle of Batch 1
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> had been launched when they were written, and Batch 1's session.json records
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> the same commit `1984a78` as the frozen-binary source.
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1. **Primary metrics:** damage/run and ROUND WINS. Secondary/explanation only:
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damage taken/run, incoming hit rate (enemy hits ÷ enemy shots), achieved mean
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distance.
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2. **BETTER than the reference** iff one primary metric is up with a
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cross-opponent **sign test p < 0.05** while the other does **not** go down;
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or the mirror image for **WORSE**. Anything else is **NOT
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DISTINGUISHABLE** (which is a real answer, not a failure).
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3. **A verdict must survive the between-opponent spread**: the pooled mean delta
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is reported with the SD across opponents, its SE, a 95% CI, and the MDE
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(α=0.05 two-sided, 80% power) — an effect smaller than the MDE is reported as
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*not detectable*, never as *absent* and never as a win.
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4. **Somewhere to stop:** if no arm beats the shipped `tfil` by rule 2 in
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Batch 1 **and** no arm shows a ≥ +MDE damage gain with p<0.10, the movement
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stage's first phase is closed with *"the shipped `tfil` is the best movement
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we have measured"* — that is a **successful** outcome, and the campaign moves
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to the gun axis rather than inventing more movement arms. See
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*What would make us stop* at the end.
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5. **No promotion off a single metric, a single opponent, or a single run.**
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A change that wins damage by losing wins (or vice-versa) is not a win.
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6. Every batch is shot with a **pre-registered prediction** stated in its
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section *before* the battles finish; a prediction that turns out wrong is
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recorded as wrong.
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---
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## 2. Stage 0 — what we already know (given, not re-derived)
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Live A/B vs real DrussGT, 15 runs × 7 rounds, one frozen binary
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(`docs/surfer_wiring_ab.md`, commit `0f5cfe3`):
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| arm | dmg/run | dmg taken | round wins | incoming hit rate |
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|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
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| `tfil` (SHIPPED) | **293** | 224 | **45/105** | 10.40% |
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| `strafe` (range 325) | 250 | **198** | 37/105 | **9.40%** |
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| `surf` | 255 | 259 | 37/105 | 13.51% |
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Read: the shipped `tfil` deals the most damage and wins the most rounds while
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being hit the *most*; `strafe` dodges best and wins least. Plus j107: drifting
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25–30 px closer made damage **and** wins worse, so the lever is not simply "get
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closer". **Hypothesis entering the campaign: the 325 px range preference of
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`strafe` costs wins** (INFERRED from DrussGT-only data — this is exactly what
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Batch 1 tests across a panel).
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---
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## 3. Batch 1 — isolating the range / aggression axis
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**Design.** One frozen binary, five env-only arms, one frozen panel
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(`tools/ab/panel_movement.txt`, 15 opponents: 5 dodger, 3 pattern, 2
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wall-follower/corner-camper, 1 spinner, 2 rammer/brawler, 2 aggressive megas),
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3 runs × 3 rounds per (opponent, arm). Arm file:
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`tools/ab/arms_movement_b1.txt`.
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| # | arm | env | what it isolates |
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|---|---|---|---|
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| 1 | `tfil` | *(none — shipped defaults)* | the arm to beat |
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| 2 | `strafe_notilt` | `TR_MOVEMENT=strafe TR_STRAFE_RANGE_TOL=999999` | the COST of the 325 range preference: tilt is provably 0 every tick, so this is pure perpendicular strafe with **no range steering at all** |
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| 3 | `strafe_325` | `TR_MOVEMENT=strafe` | the current strafe default (range 325, tol 25, tilt 15/0.10) |
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| 4 | `ring` | `TR_MOVEMENT=tfil_ring` | TFIL semantics + retuned heat field (corridor 10, wall 15, radiance 5, bullet core/aura 20/10, 5-tick commit) **with** the range-weighted tile draw (band 100–200) |
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| 5 | `ring_notemp` | `TR_MOVEMENT=tfil_ring TR_TFIL_RANGE_TEMP=0` | the control for #4: same retuned heat field, range weighting switched OFF (`rand(candidates.high)` path) |
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`ring` − `ring_notemp` is therefore the range-weighting lever **alone**, on a
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heat field that is already retuned. The originally-suggested 5th arm ("`tfil`
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with less saturated heat") is **not buildable in this campaign**: in
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`common_libs/movements/the_floor_is_lava.nim` `CorridorHeat`/`WallHotness` are
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Nim `const`s (env_report only *reports* them); only the `tfil_ring` copy reads
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them from the env. #5 is the honest substitute.
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**Pre-registered prediction (written before the battles finished):** `tfil`
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still wins the panel on damage and round wins; `strafe_notilt` will beat
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`strafe_325` on round wins (the range tilt is a net cost), and the ring arms will
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land between them. If instead the range-steering arms beat `tfil` on wins, the
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"range preference costs wins" hypothesis is confirmed across bots, not just
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against DrussGT.
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### Outcome — direct answer
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**Batch 1 is a NULL for the hypothesis that the shipped `tfil` is the best
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movement. It is not.** Measured on the frozen 15-opponent panel, one frozen
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binary, 225 battles, **0 invalid runs, 0 liveness failures, 0 failed starts**:
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| arm | dmg/run | wins/run | round wins | incoming hit rate | dmg taken/run | mean distance |
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|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
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| `tfil` (SHIPPED) | 118.9 | 1.22 | 55/135 (40.7%) | 18.17% | 199.8 | 382 px |
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| **`strafe_notilt`** | 108.8 | **1.60** | **72/135 (53.3%)** | **12.24%** | **150.3** | 456 px |
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| `strafe_325` | 111.8 | 1.56 | 70/135 (51.9%) | 13.14% | 155.7 | 436 px |
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| `ring_notemp` | 108.2 | 1.29 | 58/135 (43.0%) | 16.67% | 193.4 | 395 px |
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| `ring` | **150.1** | 1.18 | 53/135 (39.3%) | 29.42% | 225.1 | 236 px |
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Paired across opponents, the winner is **`strafe_notilt`** (pure perpendicular
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strafe, range steering provably off): **Δwins/run +0.38** [95% CI +0.16, +0.60],
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positive on **9 of 9 decisive opponents** (exact sign test **p = 0.0039**,
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sign-flip permutation p = 0.0039, Wilcoxon p = 0.0090), and **Δdmg/run −10.2**
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[−25.8, +5.5], p = 0.61, **MDE 20.4 ⇒ not detectable** — i.e. **+17 rounds out
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of 135 won, at no detectable damage cost**, with a third fewer incoming hits
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(hit rate −7.3 pp, p = 6e-5, and 0/15 opponents in favour of `tfil`) and 50 less
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damage taken per run. `strafe_325` is the same effect, slightly smaller
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(Δwins/run +0.33, [0.04, +0.63], p = 0.039, 10/12) — the two strafe arms are
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**not separable from each other** by this batch.
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`ring` is the *opposite trade* and must not be read as a movement win: it deals
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**+31.2 dmg/run** (+26%, p = 0.0074, 13/15) but wins **no more rounds**
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(Δwins −0.04, p = 1.00) and pays for the damage with the panel's **worst**
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dodging (hit rate 29.42% vs 18.17%, +25 dmg taken/run) because it fights at a
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mean **236 px** (vs 382/456). `ring_notemp` — the same retuned heat field with
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the range weighting switched off — is **indistinguishable from `tfil` on both
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primaries**, so the heat-field retune alone is not what makes `strafe` win
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(INFERRED: `ring_notemp` also differs from `tfil` in commit ticks and wall
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radiance, so this is evidence against, not a clean isolation).
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**The cleanest aggression isolation in the batch** is `ring` − `ring_notemp`
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(same engine, same retuned heat field, only the range-weighted tile draw
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differs, band 100–200): that lever alone is worth **+41.9 dmg/run** (150.1 vs
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108.2), **−0.11 wins/run** (1.18 vs 1.29) and **+12.8 pp** incoming hit rate
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(29.42% vs 16.67%) at 236 vs 395 px. Engaging harder converts into damage, never
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into wins, and pays with hits.
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**Mechanism (MEASURED, and the reason the win is a movement win):** in **216 of
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the 219 attributable runs**, our round-win count equals exactly the number of
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rounds in which the **opponent's death event** appears — round wins in this
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harness are survival wins. The winning arm survives by taking fewer, weaker hits
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at longer range, not by dealing more damage (its damage is unchanged).
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**DIRECT ANSWER.** The best 1v1 movement measured across this panel is
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**`TR_MOVEMENT=strafe` with the range tilt disabled** (pure perpendicular
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strafe, no range steering). It beats the shipped `tfil` on round wins by an
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effect that **survives the between-opponent spread** (observed +0.38 vs MDE
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0.29; 9/9 opponents; CI excludes 0) with **no detectable damage cost**, and it
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dodges substantially better. `strafe_325` (the current strafe default) is
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essentially the same arm. The shipped `tfil` is **4th of the five on round
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wins** (only `ring` is nominally lower, and `tfil` vs `ring` on wins is a dead
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heat, p = 1.00): the hypothesis in §2 that its win came from the DrussGT-only
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measurement is **supported** — on a panel it loses to both strafe arms.
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**Correction (added after the Batch-1 commit `0776630`, whose message says "last
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of five"):** `tfil` is 4th of five, not last — `ring` is nominally 0.04 wins/run
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lower and that difference is not significant. The batch message overstates one
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word; the numbers it quotes are the measured ones.
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**The pre-registered prediction for this batch was WRONG and is recorded as
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wrong:** I predicted `tfil` would still win the panel (it came 4th of five on
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wins) and
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that `strafe_notilt` would beat `strafe_325` on wins (it does by +0.05 wins/run,
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which this batch cannot resolve).
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**Honest readings of the pre-registered rule** (both printed by the analyzer;
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the strict reading is the literal one and it is NOT satisfied by anything):
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* **strict** (`the other metric's mean delta is not negative at all`): no arm is
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BETTER than `tfil`. The two strafe arms win more rounds but their mean damage
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is 7–10/run lower (inside the MDE, but negative).
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* **substantive** (the other primary metric is not *detectably* down — sign test
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not significant and |Δ| < its MDE, per rule 3): `strafe_notilt`, `strafe_325`
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and `ring` are each BETTER than `tfil` on one primary metric.
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* The ordering is identical under both readings, and under the standing rule
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(**round wins first, then damage**) the winner is `strafe_notilt`.
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### The analyzer's full report (verbatim)
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### MEASURED: session
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* commit `1984a780f494ce246e0f916934b9581e07c89ed2`, frozen binary sha256 `1817c75ab1d0…`
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* 15 opponents × 5 arms × 3 runs × 3 rounds = 225 battles, conc=6
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* arms file `arms_movement_b1.txt`, panel file `panel_movement.txt`
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* reference arm: **`tfil`** — every delta below is (arm − tfil), opponent by opponent
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* liveness: 0 run(s) excluded (225 total)
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### MEASURED: per-opponent paired table (per arm)
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#### `tfil` — shipped baseline (movement engine tfil, every knob at its default) (paired on 15 opponents)
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| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm |
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|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
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| DrussGT | dodger | 124.7→124.7 | +0.0 | 1.67→1.67 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 452→452 |
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| Diamond | dodger | 39.5→39.5 | +0.0 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 458→458 |
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| Dookious | dodger | 130.1→130.1 | +0.0 | 1.00→1.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 410→410 |
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| GresSuffurd | dodger | 129.2→129.2 | +0.0 | 1.33→1.33 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 413→413 |
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| CassiusClay | dodger | 73.4→73.4 | +0.0 | 0.33→0.33 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 339→339 |
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| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.0→181.0 | +0.0 | 2.33→2.33 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 402→402 |
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| TripHammer | pattern | 59.5→59.5 | +0.0 | 0.33→0.33 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 418→418 |
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| Coriantumr | pattern | 67.8→67.8 | +0.0 | 1.00→1.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 424→424 |
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| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 229.1→229.1 | +0.0 | 2.67→2.67 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 277→277 |
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| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 150.7→150.7 | +0.0 | 1.67→1.67 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 410→410 |
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| SpinBot | spinner | 279.3→279.3 | +0.0 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 351→351 |
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| DiamondStealer | rammer | 139.4→139.4 | +0.0 | 0.67→0.67 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 235→235 |
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| BlitzBat | brawler | 54.3→54.3 | +0.0 | 2.00→2.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 422→422 |
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| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 52.3→52.3 | +0.0 | 0.33→0.33 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 401→401 |
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| Ascendant | aggressive | 73.3→73.3 | +0.0 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 317→317 |
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#### `strafe_notilt` — strafe, range steering OFF (tilt always 0) (paired on 15 opponents)
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| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm |
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|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
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| DrussGT | dodger | 124.7→115.7 | -9.0 | 1.67→1.67 | +0.00 | -31.6 | -2.95 | 452→535 |
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| Diamond | dodger | 39.5→56.6 | +17.1 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | -62.9 | -7.97 | 458→543 |
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| Dookious | dodger | 130.1→105.8 | -24.3 | 1.00→1.00 | +0.00 | -60.1 | -6.08 | 410→484 |
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| GresSuffurd | dodger | 129.2→111.3 | -17.8 | 1.33→2.33 | +1.00 | -36.3 | -8.61 | 413→482 |
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| CassiusClay | dodger | 73.4→92.1 | +18.7 | 0.33→1.33 | +1.00 | -55.5 | -7.24 | 339→397 |
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| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.0→133.2 | -47.8 | 2.33→2.67 | +0.33 | -0.9 | -2.46 | 402→447 |
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| TripHammer | pattern | 59.5→57.5 | -2.1 | 0.33→0.67 | +0.33 | -45.0 | -3.84 | 418→547 |
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| Coriantumr | pattern | 67.8→77.2 | +9.4 | 1.00→1.67 | +0.67 | -54.2 | -3.35 | 424→554 |
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| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 229.1→162.1 | -66.9 | 2.67→2.67 | +0.00 | -54.9 | -9.49 | 277→361 |
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| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 150.7→95.7 | -55.0 | 1.67→1.67 | +0.00 | -76.2 | -7.27 | 410→567 |
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| SpinBot | spinner | 279.3→271.3 | -8.0 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | -42.7 | -14.27 | 351→335 |
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| DiamondStealer | rammer | 139.4→154.7 | +15.2 | 0.67→1.00 | +0.33 | -33.7 | -2.80 | 235→243 |
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| BlitzBat | brawler | 54.3→41.5 | -12.8 | 2.00→3.00 | +1.00 | -105.6 | -13.42 | 422→588 |
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| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 52.3→78.4 | +26.0 | 0.33→1.00 | +0.67 | -45.0 | -6.09 | 401→397 |
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| Ascendant | aggressive | 73.3→78.2 | +4.9 | 0.00→0.33 | +0.33 | -36.9 | -14.30 | 317→364 |
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#### `strafe_325` — strafe default (range 325, tol 25, tilt 15/0.10) (paired on 15 opponents)
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| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm |
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|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
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| DrussGT | dodger | 124.7→118.5 | -6.2 | 1.67→1.33 | -0.33 | -17.5 | -1.77 | 452→494 |
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| Diamond | dodger | 39.5→71.8 | +32.2 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | -38.7 | -5.93 | 458→506 |
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| Dookious | dodger | 130.1→84.0 | -46.0 | 1.00→2.00 | +1.00 | -108.4 | -9.12 | 410→457 |
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| GresSuffurd | dodger | 129.2→112.3 | -16.9 | 1.33→2.00 | +0.67 | -26.1 | -5.44 | 413→430 |
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| CassiusClay | dodger | 73.4→81.5 | +8.1 | 0.33→1.33 | +1.00 | -68.4 | -7.31 | 339→386 |
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| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.0→169.4 | -11.6 | 2.33→2.33 | +0.00 | -7.9 | -3.52 | 402→425 |
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| TripHammer | pattern | 59.5→43.6 | -15.9 | 0.33→0.67 | +0.33 | -43.0 | -4.74 | 418→500 |
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| Coriantumr | pattern | 67.8→96.5 | +28.7 | 1.00→1.67 | +0.67 | -46.2 | -3.37 | 424→494 |
|
||
| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 229.1→163.8 | -65.2 | 2.67→1.67 | -1.00 | -12.1 | -7.90 | 277→332 |
|
||
| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 150.7→119.8 | -30.9 | 1.67→2.00 | +0.33 | -78.8 | -5.38 | 410→517 |
|
||
| SpinBot | spinner | 279.3→259.3 | -20.0 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | -37.3 | -12.96 | 351→436 |
|
||
| DiamondStealer | rammer | 139.4→135.3 | -4.1 | 0.67→1.33 | +0.67 | -25.4 | -3.50 | 235→274 |
|
||
| BlitzBat | brawler | 54.3→60.5 | +6.3 | 2.00→2.67 | +0.67 | -88.1 | -10.88 | 422→531 |
|
||
| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 52.3→69.3 | +16.9 | 0.33→0.67 | +0.33 | -15.7 | -2.95 | 401→383 |
|
||
| Ascendant | aggressive | 73.3→90.4 | +17.1 | 0.00→0.67 | +0.67 | -47.0 | -12.83 | 317→373 |
|
||
|
||
#### `ring` — tfil_ring (retuned heat field + range weighting 100-200) (paired on 15 opponents)
|
||
|
||
| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm |
|
||
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
|
||
| DrussGT | dodger | 124.7→127.8 | +3.1 | 1.67→0.67 | -1.00 | +105.6 | +12.67 | 452→244 |
|
||
| Diamond | dodger | 39.5→46.4 | +6.9 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | +40.9 | +17.58 | 458→240 |
|
||
| Dookious | dodger | 130.1→149.2 | +19.2 | 1.00→0.33 | -0.67 | +50.0 | +8.21 | 410→267 |
|
||
| GresSuffurd | dodger | 129.2→222.7 | +93.6 | 1.33→1.33 | +0.00 | +83.9 | +12.13 | 413→234 |
|
||
| CassiusClay | dodger | 73.4→102.5 | +29.1 | 0.33→0.33 | +0.00 | +21.8 | +5.21 | 339→242 |
|
||
| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.0→249.8 | +68.8 | 2.33→3.00 | +0.67 | -41.9 | +0.85 | 402→209 |
|
||
| TripHammer | pattern | 59.5→76.2 | +16.7 | 0.33→0.00 | -0.33 | +47.8 | +13.66 | 418→266 |
|
||
| Coriantumr | pattern | 67.8→119.4 | +51.7 | 1.00→1.00 | +0.00 | +32.1 | +10.39 | 424→258 |
|
||
| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 229.1→219.5 | -9.6 | 2.67→1.67 | -1.00 | +57.2 | +7.21 | 277→232 |
|
||
| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 150.7→176.4 | +25.7 | 1.67→2.33 | +0.67 | -41.8 | +11.76 | 410→229 |
|
||
| SpinBot | spinner | 279.3→336.0 | +56.7 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | +5.3 | +24.20 | 351→172 |
|
||
| DiamondStealer | rammer | 139.4→148.7 | +9.3 | 0.67→1.33 | +0.67 | -39.4 | -1.78 | 235→214 |
|
||
| BlitzBat | brawler | 54.3→156.7 | +102.5 | 2.00→2.67 | +0.67 | +8.4 | +12.71 | 422→221 |
|
||
| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 52.3→43.3 | -9.0 | 0.33→0.00 | -0.33 | +36.2 | +10.82 | 401→266 |
|
||
| Ascendant | aggressive | 73.3→76.7 | +3.4 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | +14.0 | +13.54 | 317→243 |
|
||
|
||
#### `ring_notemp` — tfil_ring, range weighting OFF (temp 0) (paired on 15 opponents)
|
||
|
||
| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm |
|
||
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
|
||
| DrussGT | dodger | 124.7→108.0 | -16.7 | 1.67→1.33 | -0.33 | -0.8 | -0.72 | 452→436 |
|
||
| Diamond | dodger | 39.5→42.9 | +3.4 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | +9.2 | -1.47 | 458→447 |
|
||
| Dookious | dodger | 130.1→115.2 | -14.8 | 1.00→1.33 | +0.33 | -24.4 | -3.35 | 410→418 |
|
||
| GresSuffurd | dodger | 129.2→118.3 | -10.8 | 1.33→1.33 | +0.00 | +20.9 | -1.75 | 413→433 |
|
||
| CassiusClay | dodger | 73.4→92.6 | +19.2 | 0.33→1.67 | +1.33 | -51.0 | -5.72 | 339→388 |
|
||
| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.0→126.2 | -54.8 | 2.33→1.33 | -1.00 | +55.3 | +3.00 | 402→405 |
|
||
| TripHammer | pattern | 59.5→44.3 | -15.2 | 0.33→0.33 | +0.00 | -4.9 | +0.65 | 418→453 |
|
||
| Coriantumr | pattern | 67.8→84.9 | +17.1 | 1.00→1.00 | +0.00 | -1.7 | +0.24 | 424→430 |
|
||
| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 229.1→141.1 | -88.0 | 2.67→3.00 | +0.33 | -124.4 | -14.57 | 277→339 |
|
||
| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 150.7→134.2 | -16.5 | 1.67→1.33 | -0.33 | +28.8 | +1.77 | 410→436 |
|
||
| SpinBot | spinner | 279.3→287.7 | +8.3 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.45 | 351→308 |
|
||
| DiamondStealer | rammer | 139.4→154.5 | +15.1 | 0.67→2.00 | +1.33 | -57.4 | -6.08 | 235→254 |
|
||
| BlitzBat | brawler | 54.3→57.3 | +3.1 | 2.00→1.67 | -0.33 | +57.7 | +2.97 | 422→436 |
|
||
| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 52.3→45.2 | -7.1 | 0.33→0.00 | -0.33 | +21.2 | +2.66 | 401→376 |
|
||
| Ascendant | aggressive | 73.3→70.3 | -3.0 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | -23.2 | -8.01 | 317→371 |
|
||
|
||
### MEASURED: pooled dashboard (all valid runs, NOT the verdict)
|
||
|
||
| arm | runs | dmg/run | dmg taken/run | wins/run | round wins | win rate | incoming hit rate | mean distance |
|
||
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
|
||
| `tfil` | 45 | 118.9 | 199.8 | 1.22 | 55/135 | 40.7% | 18.17% | 382 |
|
||
| `strafe_notilt` | 45 | 108.8 | 150.3 | 1.60 | 72/135 | 53.3% | 12.24% | 456 |
|
||
| `strafe_325` | 45 | 111.8 | 155.7 | 1.56 | 70/135 | 51.9% | 13.14% | 436 |
|
||
| `ring` | 45 | 150.1 | 225.1 | 1.18 | 53/135 | 39.3% | 29.42% | 236 |
|
||
| `ring_notemp` | 45 | 108.2 | 193.4 | 1.29 | 58/135 | 43.0% | 16.67% | 395 |
|
||
|
||
### MEASURED: cross-opponent aggregation (the verdict layer)
|
||
|
||
Deltas are per-opponent (arm − reference). `spread` is the SD of those deltas ACROSS opponents; `SE` = spread/√n; `95% CI` = mean ± t·SE. Sign test = how many opponents the arm wins (ties dropped), exact binomial; sign-flip = permutation test on the mean of the deltas.
|
||
|
||
| arm | metric | mean Δ | spread (SD) | SE | 95% CI | sign test (wins/n) | p(sign) | p(sign-flip) | Wilcoxon p | MDE |
|
||
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
|
||
| `strafe_notilt` | damage | -10.15 | 28.19 | 7.28 | [-25.76, +5.46] | 6/15 | 0.6072 | 0.1887 (exact 2^15) | 0.3787 | 20.39 |
|
||
| `strafe_notilt` | wins | +0.38 | 0.40 | 0.10 | [+0.16, +0.60] | 9/9 | 0.003906 | 0.003906 (exact 2^15) | 0.008969 | 0.29 |
|
||
| `strafe_notilt` | damage_taken | -49.44 | 23.28 | 6.01 | [-62.33, -36.54] | 0/15 | 6.104e-05 | 6.104e-05 (exact 2^15) | 0.0007265 | 16.84 |
|
||
| `strafe_notilt` | hit_rate | -7.34 | 4.10 | 1.06 | [-9.61, -5.07] | 0/15 | 6.104e-05 | 6.104e-05 (exact 2^15) | 0.0007265 | 2.96 |
|
||
| `strafe_notilt` | dist | +74.36 | 54.83 | 14.16 | [+44.00, +104.73] | 13/15 | 0.007385 | 0.0003662 (exact 2^15) | 0.001621 | 39.66 |
|
||
| `strafe_325` | damage | -7.15 | 27.04 | 6.98 | [-22.13, +7.82] | 6/15 | 0.6072 | 0.3276 (exact 2^15) | 0.5137 | 19.56 |
|
||
| `strafe_325` | wins | +0.33 | 0.53 | 0.14 | [+0.04, +0.63] | 10/12 | 0.03857 | 0.04688 (exact 2^15) | 0.05424 | 0.39 |
|
||
| `strafe_325` | damage_taken | -44.05 | 29.86 | 7.71 | [-60.58, -27.51] | 0/15 | 6.104e-05 | 6.104e-05 (exact 2^15) | 0.0007265 | 21.60 |
|
||
| `strafe_325` | hit_rate | -6.51 | 3.58 | 0.92 | [-8.49, -4.53] | 0/15 | 6.104e-05 | 6.104e-05 (exact 2^15) | 0.0007265 | 2.59 |
|
||
| `strafe_325` | dist | +53.77 | 33.71 | 8.70 | [+35.10, +72.44] | 14/15 | 0.0009766 | 0.0001831 (exact 2^15) | 0.001092 | 24.38 |
|
||
| `ring` | damage | +31.19 | 35.61 | 9.19 | [+11.47, +50.91] | 13/15 | 0.007385 | 0.001587 (exact 2^15) | 0.004932 | 25.76 |
|
||
| `ring` | wins | -0.04 | 0.56 | 0.14 | [-0.36, +0.27] | 4/9 | 1 | 0.8828 (exact 2^15) | 0.6776 | 0.41 |
|
||
| `ring` | damage_taken | +25.35 | 43.46 | 11.22 | [+1.27, +49.42] | 12/15 | 0.03516 | 0.04059 (exact 2^15) | 0.05708 | 31.44 |
|
||
| `ring` | hit_rate | +10.61 | 6.32 | 1.63 | [+7.11, +14.11] | 14/15 | 0.0009766 | 0.0001831 (exact 2^15) | 0.001092 | 4.57 |
|
||
| `ring` | dist | -146.25 | 60.84 | 15.71 | [-179.94, -112.56] | 0/15 | 6.104e-05 | 6.104e-05 (exact 2^15) | 0.0007265 | 44.01 |
|
||
| `ring_notemp` | damage | -10.73 | 28.24 | 7.29 | [-26.37, +4.91] | 6/15 | 0.6072 | 0.1772 (exact 2^15) | 0.3487 | 20.43 |
|
||
| `ring_notemp` | wins | +0.07 | 0.61 | 0.16 | [-0.27, +0.40] | 4/9 | 1 | 0.8086 (exact 2^15) | 0.9525 | 0.44 |
|
||
| `ring_notemp` | damage_taken | -6.31 | 46.39 | 11.98 | [-32.00, +19.38] | 6/14 | 0.7905 | 0.632 (exact 2^15) | 0.8017 | 33.56 |
|
||
| `ring_notemp` | hit_rate | -2.00 | 4.87 | 1.26 | [-4.69, +0.70] | 7/15 | 1 | 0.1341 (exact 2^15) | 0.2681 | 3.52 |
|
||
| `ring_notemp` | dist | +13.34 | 29.63 | 7.65 | [-3.07, +29.75] | 11/15 | 0.1185 | 0.1037 (exact 2^15) | 0.1055 | 21.43 |
|
||
|
||
#### By inferred style (explanation only, never the verdict)
|
||
|
||
| arm | style | n | mean Δdmg | mean Δwins | mean Δhit rate (pp) |
|
||
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
|
||
| `strafe_notilt` | aggressive | 2 | +15.4 | +0.50 | -10.19 |
|
||
| `strafe_notilt` | brawler | 1 | -12.8 | +1.00 | -13.42 |
|
||
| `strafe_notilt` | cornercamper | 1 | -55.0 | +0.00 | -7.27 |
|
||
| `strafe_notilt` | dodger | 5 | -3.1 | +0.40 | -6.57 |
|
||
| `strafe_notilt` | pattern | 3 | -13.5 | +0.44 | -3.21 |
|
||
| `strafe_notilt` | rammer | 1 | +15.2 | +0.33 | -2.80 |
|
||
| `strafe_notilt` | spinner | 1 | -8.0 | +0.00 | -14.27 |
|
||
| `strafe_notilt` | wallfollower | 1 | -66.9 | +0.00 | -9.49 |
|
||
| `strafe_325` | aggressive | 2 | +17.0 | +0.50 | -7.89 |
|
||
| `strafe_325` | brawler | 1 | +6.3 | +0.67 | -10.88 |
|
||
| `strafe_325` | cornercamper | 1 | -30.9 | +0.33 | -5.38 |
|
||
| `strafe_325` | dodger | 5 | -5.7 | +0.47 | -5.91 |
|
||
| `strafe_325` | pattern | 3 | +0.4 | +0.33 | -3.88 |
|
||
| `strafe_325` | rammer | 1 | -4.1 | +0.67 | -3.50 |
|
||
| `strafe_325` | spinner | 1 | -20.0 | +0.00 | -12.96 |
|
||
| `strafe_325` | wallfollower | 1 | -65.2 | -1.00 | -7.90 |
|
||
| `ring` | aggressive | 2 | -2.8 | -0.17 | +12.18 |
|
||
| `ring` | brawler | 1 | +102.5 | +0.67 | +12.71 |
|
||
| `ring` | cornercamper | 1 | +25.7 | +0.67 | +11.76 |
|
||
| `ring` | dodger | 5 | +30.4 | -0.33 | +11.16 |
|
||
| `ring` | pattern | 3 | +45.7 | +0.11 | +8.30 |
|
||
| `ring` | rammer | 1 | +9.3 | +0.67 | -1.78 |
|
||
| `ring` | spinner | 1 | +56.7 | +0.00 | +24.20 |
|
||
| `ring` | wallfollower | 1 | -9.6 | -1.00 | +7.21 |
|
||
| `ring_notemp` | aggressive | 2 | -5.1 | -0.17 | -2.67 |
|
||
| `ring_notemp` | brawler | 1 | +3.1 | -0.33 | +2.97 |
|
||
| `ring_notemp` | cornercamper | 1 | -16.5 | -0.33 | +1.77 |
|
||
| `ring_notemp` | dodger | 5 | -4.0 | +0.27 | -2.60 |
|
||
| `ring_notemp` | pattern | 3 | -17.6 | -0.33 | +1.30 |
|
||
| `ring_notemp` | rammer | 1 | +15.1 | +1.33 | -6.08 |
|
||
| `ring_notemp` | spinner | 1 | +8.3 | +0.00 | +0.45 |
|
||
| `ring_notemp` | wallfollower | 1 | -88.0 | +0.33 | -14.57 |
|
||
|
||
#### The pre-registered verdict table, as printed by the analyzer
|
||
|
||
PRIMARY metrics are dmg/run and wins/run; hit rate is never the verdict. The pre-registered rule says an arm is BETTER when one primary metric is UP at sign-test p<0.05 `while the other does not go down`. That phrase has two readings and BOTH are printed:
|
||
|
||
* **strict** — the other metric's mean delta is not negative at all (`Δ >= 0`). Nothing can be BETTER while it costs *any* mean damage.
|
||
* **substantive** — the other metric's delta is not *detectably* down: the sign test is not significant **and** the delta is smaller than that metric's MDE (the pre-registered rule 3 says an effect under the MDE is not detectable, so it cannot count as a loss).
|
||
|
||
| rank | arm | Δwins/run | Δdmg/run | sign test wins | sign test dmg | verdict (strict) | verdict (substantive) |
|
||
|---:|---|---:|---:|---|---|---|---|
|
||
| 1 | `strafe_notilt` | +0.38 | -10.2 | 9/9 p=0.003906 | 6/15 p=0.6072 | **not distinguishable** | **BETTER** |
|
||
| 2 | `strafe_325` | +0.33 | -7.2 | 10/12 p=0.03857 | 6/15 p=0.6072 | **not distinguishable** | **BETTER** |
|
||
| 3 | `ring_notemp` | +0.07 | -10.7 | 4/9 p=1 | 6/15 p=0.6072 | **not distinguishable** | **not distinguishable** |
|
||
| 4 | `ring` | -0.04 | +31.2 | 4/9 p=1 | 13/15 p=0.007385 | **not distinguishable** | **BETTER** |
|
||
|
||
Reference `tfil`: 118.9 dmg/run, 1.22 wins/run, 18.17% incoming, 382 px.
|
||
|
||
Highest wins delta: `strafe_notilt` (+0.38 wins/run, -10.2 dmg/run) — strict: **not distinguishable**, substantive: **BETTER**.
|
||
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## 4. Batch 2 — the range axis ON the winning engine (replication)
|
||
|
||
**Design.** Same frozen panel, same 3 runs × 3 rounds, new session
|
||
`/tmp/ab/j118_b2` (commit `8efa627`, 225 battles, **0 invalid runs, 0 failed
|
||
starts**; no source file changed between `1984a78` and `8efa627` — only a
|
||
parallel job's new docs/tools — so this is the same code). Arms
|
||
(`tools/ab/arms_movement_b2.txt`): the winner and the strafe default from
|
||
Batch 1 (replication), plus the tilt re-armed at **600 px** and at **250 px**,
|
||
i.e. `strafe_notilt` has no range control and drifts to ~456 px, so these two
|
||
separate *"the range value is the lever"* from *"the tilt mechanism is the
|
||
cost"*.
|
||
|
||
**Pre-registered prediction (written before the battles):** if the range value
|
||
drives the win, `tilt_600` should beat `strafe_notilt`; if the tilt mechanism
|
||
itself is the cost, both tilt arms should lose to `strafe_notilt`. **Both halves
|
||
turned out wrong**, and that is the useful part:
|
||
|
||
| arm | target / emergent range | dmg/run | wins/run | round wins | win rate | incoming hit rate | dmg taken/run | mean distance |
|
||
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
|
||
| `tfil` (SHIPPED) | none | 114.1 | 1.18 | 53/135 | 39.3% | 17.63% | 196.5 | 394 px |
|
||
| `strafe_325` | 325 | 111.8 | **1.76** | **79/135** | **58.5%** | 12.52% | 144.2 | 434 px |
|
||
| `strafe_notilt` | none (drifts) | 101.5 | 1.64 | 74/135 | 54.8% | 12.05% | 148.6 | 459 px |
|
||
| `tilt_600` | 600 | 102.3 | 1.58 | 71/135 | 52.6% | **11.67%** | 146.4 | **478 px** |
|
||
| `tilt_250` | 250 | 112.0 | 1.56 | 70/135 | 51.9% | 13.71% | 162.2 | 415 px |
|
||
|
||
Paired vs `tfil`: `strafe_325` **+0.58 wins/run** [CI +0.27, +0.89], 11/12
|
||
decisive opponents, p = 0.0063; `strafe_notilt` **+0.47** [+0.22, +0.72], 10/11,
|
||
p = 0.0117; `tilt_600` +0.40 [+0.04, +0.76] (sign test 8/11 p = 0.23,
|
||
sign-flip p = 0.049); `tilt_250` +0.38 [+0.07, +0.69], 10/12, p = 0.0386. Damage
|
||
deltas are −2.1 … −12.5 (10% of the mean at worst) and never positive;
|
||
incoming-hit-rate deltas are −5.2 … −6.9 pp with **0/15 opponents favouring
|
||
`tfil`**.
|
||
|
||
**What this batch actually establishes**
|
||
|
||
1. **The strafe engine's win over the shipped `tfil` replicates.** Batch 1:
|
||
+0.33 / +0.38 wins/run for the two strafe arms; Batch 2: +0.58 / +0.47 — the
|
||
same direction, the same magnitude band, in an independent session, with
|
||
**0/15 opponents** going the other way on incoming hit rate in either
|
||
session. Pooled descriptively, the four strafe-family arms won **52–58%** of
|
||
rounds in Batch 2 and **52–53%** in Batch 1, against `tfil`'s **39–41%**.
|
||
2. **The baseline is reproducible across sessions:** `tfil` won 40.7% of rounds
|
||
in Batch 1 and 39.3% in Batch 2 (Δ 1.4 pp), and dealt 118.9 vs 114.1 dmg/run.
|
||
The harness gives the same answer twice, which is why the win delta above is
|
||
believable.
|
||
3. **The range TARGET is not the lever.** Re-arming the tilt at 600 px moved the
|
||
achieved distance to 478 px and at 250 px to 415 px (vs 459 px with no
|
||
steering), and **none of the three was separable from the others on wins**.
|
||
The win comes from the engine, at any of these distances; the range value
|
||
within 415–478 px does not decide it. This **overturns the Batch-1 reading**
|
||
that "the tilt costs wins" (Batch 1: no-tilt > 325; Batch 2: 325 > no-tilt,
|
||
both inside noise) — the honest statement is *the tilt's effect on wins is
|
||
below this design's resolution (MDE ≈ 0.3–0.4 wins/run)*.
|
||
4. **`dmg/run` and `wins/run` remain different questions.** The arm that dealt
|
||
the most damage in Batch 1 (`ring`, +31) won nothing extra; the arms that win
|
||
in Batch 2 are not the high-damage ones (`strafe_325` 111.8 dmg/run vs
|
||
`tilt_250` 112.0). The win is bought with **survival** — 50 fewer damage
|
||
taken per run, −5…−7 pp incoming hit rate — not with output.
|
||
|
||
**DIRECT ANSWER after two batches (unchanged, now replicated).** The best 1v1
|
||
movement measured on this panel is the **strafe engine**: `TR_MOVEMENT=strafe`.
|
||
Its two Batch-1/2 configs are statistically tied with each other; if a config
|
||
must be named, `TR_MOVEMENT=strafe` at its shipped range (325 px) has the best
|
||
pooled round-win rate of the five arms in Batch 2 (58.5%) and ties `strafe_notilt`
|
||
in Batch 1, while `strafe_notilt` is the simpler arm (it has no range steering to
|
||
mis-tune). It is better than the shipped `tfil` by a margin that survives the
|
||
between-opponent spread: +0.33…+0.58 wins/run, **all four measurements with a
|
||
95% CI excluding 0** ([+0.04,+0.63], [+0.16,+0.60], [+0.27,+0.89], [+0.22,+0.72]),
|
||
and 9/9, 10/12, 11/12 and 10/11 decisive opponents in favour, against an MDE of
|
||
0.29–0.40 — i.e. every measurement sits at or above its own detection threshold.
|
||
Rejecting "no change": `tfil`'s win share of 39–41% is
|
||
**not** the best movement we have measured.
|
||
|
||
### The analyzer's full report (verbatim)
|
||
|
||
### MEASURED: session
|
||
|
||
* commit `8efa627c05137d5a949d5a899c71fc55b5a1daf5`, frozen binary sha256 `005d010d8593…`
|
||
* 15 opponents × 5 arms × 3 runs × 3 rounds = 225 battles, conc=6
|
||
* arms file `arms_movement_b2.txt`, panel file `panel_movement.txt`
|
||
* reference arm: **`tfil`** — every delta below is (arm − tfil), opponent by opponent
|
||
|
||
* liveness: 0 run(s) excluded (225 total)
|
||
|
||
### MEASURED: per-opponent paired table (per arm)
|
||
|
||
#### `tfil` — shipped baseline, re-measured in this session (replication) (paired on 15 opponents)
|
||
|
||
| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm |
|
||
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
|
||
| DrussGT | dodger | 120.8→120.8 | +0.0 | 0.67→0.67 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 445→445 |
|
||
| Diamond | dodger | 55.9→55.9 | +0.0 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 457→457 |
|
||
| Dookious | dodger | 86.5→86.5 | +0.0 | 1.33→1.33 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 451→451 |
|
||
| GresSuffurd | dodger | 114.0→114.0 | +0.0 | 1.33→1.33 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 417→417 |
|
||
| CassiusClay | dodger | 85.3→85.3 | +0.0 | 0.67→0.67 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 388→388 |
|
||
| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.7→181.7 | +0.0 | 2.00→2.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 391→391 |
|
||
| TripHammer | pattern | 55.8→55.8 | +0.0 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 469→469 |
|
||
| Coriantumr | pattern | 100.9→100.9 | +0.0 | 1.67→1.67 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 444→444 |
|
||
| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 150.0→150.0 | +0.0 | 2.00→2.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 317→317 |
|
||
| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 115.1→115.1 | +0.0 | 1.67→1.67 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 419→419 |
|
||
| SpinBot | spinner | 302.0→302.0 | +0.0 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 316→316 |
|
||
| DiamondStealer | rammer | 140.1→140.1 | +0.0 | 1.00→1.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 236→236 |
|
||
| BlitzBat | brawler | 74.5→74.5 | +0.0 | 2.00→2.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 420→420 |
|
||
| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 65.6→65.6 | +0.0 | 0.33→0.33 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 377→377 |
|
||
| Ascendant | aggressive | 62.8→62.8 | +0.0 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 362→362 |
|
||
|
||
#### `strafe_notilt` — Batch-1 winner, replication (paired on 15 opponents)
|
||
|
||
| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm |
|
||
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
|
||
| DrussGT | dodger | 120.8→92.2 | -28.6 | 0.67→0.67 | +0.00 | -44.7 | -4.02 | 445→523 |
|
||
| Diamond | dodger | 55.9→63.5 | +7.6 | 0.00→0.33 | +0.33 | -43.4 | -7.28 | 457→533 |
|
||
| Dookious | dodger | 86.5→88.5 | +2.1 | 1.33→1.33 | +0.00 | -31.1 | -3.65 | 451→486 |
|
||
| GresSuffurd | dodger | 114.0→115.8 | +1.8 | 1.33→2.33 | +1.00 | -79.2 | -5.44 | 417→470 |
|
||
| CassiusClay | dodger | 85.3→91.2 | +5.9 | 0.67→1.33 | +0.67 | -43.8 | -5.85 | 388→390 |
|
||
| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.7→131.3 | -50.4 | 2.00→2.67 | +0.67 | -3.1 | -7.61 | 391→444 |
|
||
| TripHammer | pattern | 55.8→65.7 | +9.9 | 0.00→0.67 | +0.67 | -39.0 | -4.46 | 469→553 |
|
||
| Coriantumr | pattern | 100.9→60.5 | -40.4 | 1.67→1.33 | -0.33 | -16.9 | -1.32 | 444→572 |
|
||
| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 150.0→166.5 | +16.4 | 2.00→2.67 | +0.67 | -42.3 | +0.54 | 317→327 |
|
||
| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 115.1→109.8 | -5.3 | 1.67→2.67 | +1.00 | -79.0 | -8.87 | 419→556 |
|
||
| SpinBot | spinner | 302.0→259.5 | -42.5 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | -48.0 | -23.48 | 316→406 |
|
||
| DiamondStealer | rammer | 140.1→117.9 | -22.2 | 1.00→1.00 | +0.00 | -29.9 | -3.78 | 236→260 |
|
||
| BlitzBat | brawler | 74.5→43.3 | -31.2 | 2.00→2.33 | +0.33 | -94.9 | -9.35 | 420→571 |
|
||
| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 65.6→49.7 | -15.9 | 0.33→1.33 | +1.00 | -73.3 | -7.89 | 377→414 |
|
||
| Ascendant | aggressive | 62.8→67.8 | +5.0 | 0.00→1.00 | +1.00 | -49.5 | -10.67 | 362→384 |
|
||
|
||
#### `strafe_325` — strafe default (range 325), replication (paired on 15 opponents)
|
||
|
||
| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm |
|
||
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
|
||
| DrussGT | dodger | 120.8→129.4 | +8.6 | 0.67→1.67 | +1.00 | -23.7 | -2.26 | 445→477 |
|
||
| Diamond | dodger | 55.9→58.0 | +2.1 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | -47.9 | -5.92 | 457→495 |
|
||
| Dookious | dodger | 86.5→115.7 | +29.2 | 1.33→1.67 | +0.33 | -53.2 | -4.12 | 451→464 |
|
||
| GresSuffurd | dodger | 114.0→112.3 | -1.7 | 1.33→2.67 | +1.33 | -94.9 | -8.82 | 417→461 |
|
||
| CassiusClay | dodger | 85.3→95.2 | +9.9 | 0.67→2.33 | +1.67 | -103.7 | -8.41 | 388→366 |
|
||
| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.7→162.2 | -19.4 | 2.00→2.67 | +0.67 | +2.2 | -4.64 | 391→442 |
|
||
| TripHammer | pattern | 55.8→55.0 | -0.8 | 0.00→0.67 | +0.67 | -50.5 | -5.25 | 469→485 |
|
||
| Coriantumr | pattern | 100.9→87.7 | -13.2 | 1.67→1.33 | -0.33 | -3.8 | -0.71 | 444→460 |
|
||
| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 150.0→138.6 | -11.5 | 2.00→3.00 | +1.00 | -64.0 | -4.78 | 317→383 |
|
||
| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 115.1→122.4 | +7.3 | 1.67→2.67 | +1.00 | -124.2 | -11.23 | 419→514 |
|
||
| SpinBot | spinner | 302.0→261.8 | -40.2 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | -32.0 | -17.27 | 316→411 |
|
||
| DiamondStealer | rammer | 140.1→149.2 | +9.2 | 1.00→1.33 | +0.33 | -20.1 | -2.23 | 236→266 |
|
||
| BlitzBat | brawler | 74.5→50.1 | -24.5 | 2.00→2.33 | +0.33 | -103.2 | -8.93 | 420→519 |
|
||
| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 65.6→56.8 | -8.8 | 0.33→0.33 | +0.00 | -35.7 | -3.96 | 377→395 |
|
||
| Ascendant | aggressive | 62.8→82.3 | +19.6 | 0.00→0.67 | +0.67 | -30.2 | -8.29 | 362→374 |
|
||
|
||
#### `tilt_600` — tilt ON, target 600 (farther than the emergent 456) (paired on 15 opponents)
|
||
|
||
| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm |
|
||
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
|
||
| DrussGT | dodger | 120.8→110.5 | -10.2 | 0.67→1.00 | +0.33 | -40.5 | -3.48 | 445→554 |
|
||
| Diamond | dodger | 55.9→63.9 | +8.0 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | -97.2 | -11.33 | 457→574 |
|
||
| Dookious | dodger | 86.5→83.4 | -3.0 | 1.33→1.00 | -0.33 | +6.7 | +0.01 | 451→498 |
|
||
| GresSuffurd | dodger | 114.0→114.8 | +0.8 | 1.33→3.00 | +1.67 | -102.3 | -8.16 | 417→475 |
|
||
| CassiusClay | dodger | 85.3→62.1 | -23.2 | 0.67→0.67 | +0.00 | -46.4 | -5.24 | 388→449 |
|
||
| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.7→124.3 | -57.4 | 2.00→2.00 | +0.00 | +25.0 | -5.38 | 391→467 |
|
||
| TripHammer | pattern | 55.8→52.6 | -3.2 | 0.00→1.33 | +1.33 | -54.1 | -7.01 | 469→552 |
|
||
| Coriantumr | pattern | 100.9→63.1 | -37.8 | 1.67→1.33 | -0.33 | +4.3 | -1.08 | 444→557 |
|
||
| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 150.0→147.1 | -2.9 | 2.00→1.67 | -0.33 | -42.1 | -2.06 | 317→373 |
|
||
| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 115.1→95.0 | -20.1 | 1.67→2.00 | +0.33 | -98.9 | -9.05 | 419→572 |
|
||
| SpinBot | spinner | 302.0→250.5 | -51.5 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | -32.0 | -18.70 | 316→444 |
|
||
| DiamondStealer | rammer | 140.1→159.9 | +19.9 | 1.00→1.67 | +0.67 | -53.3 | -1.92 | 236→274 |
|
||
| BlitzBat | brawler | 74.5→41.0 | -33.5 | 2.00→3.00 | +1.00 | -91.0 | -11.09 | 420→585 |
|
||
| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 65.6→75.4 | +9.8 | 0.33→0.67 | +0.33 | -45.0 | -7.18 | 377→408 |
|
||
| Ascendant | aggressive | 62.8→90.6 | +27.8 | 0.00→1.33 | +1.33 | -85.0 | -12.15 | 362→387 |
|
||
|
||
#### `tilt_250` — tilt ON, target 250 (much nearer than the emergent 456) (paired on 15 opponents)
|
||
|
||
| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm |
|
||
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
|
||
| DrussGT | dodger | 120.8→108.7 | -12.1 | 0.67→1.00 | +0.33 | -15.7 | -2.25 | 445→470 |
|
||
| Diamond | dodger | 55.9→97.2 | +41.3 | 0.00→1.00 | +1.00 | -100.7 | -7.74 | 457→482 |
|
||
| Dookious | dodger | 86.5→105.0 | +18.6 | 1.33→2.00 | +0.67 | -39.4 | -2.97 | 451→460 |
|
||
| GresSuffurd | dodger | 114.0→145.2 | +31.2 | 1.33→2.67 | +1.33 | -89.4 | -6.57 | 417→409 |
|
||
| CassiusClay | dodger | 85.3→103.1 | +17.8 | 0.67→1.00 | +0.33 | -30.2 | -3.63 | 388→367 |
|
||
| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.7→142.8 | -38.8 | 2.00→2.33 | +0.33 | +36.3 | -4.18 | 391→436 |
|
||
| TripHammer | pattern | 55.8→53.4 | -2.3 | 0.00→0.33 | +0.33 | -20.3 | -2.44 | 469→467 |
|
||
| Coriantumr | pattern | 100.9→75.1 | -25.8 | 1.67→1.33 | -0.33 | +5.1 | -1.04 | 444→436 |
|
||
| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 150.0→157.0 | +7.0 | 2.00→1.33 | -0.67 | +42.9 | +1.38 | 317→297 |
|
||
| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 115.1→130.6 | +15.5 | 1.67→3.00 | +1.33 | -123.6 | -10.75 | 419→454 |
|
||
| SpinBot | spinner | 302.0→258.0 | -44.0 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | -32.0 | -18.91 | 316→432 |
|
||
| DiamondStealer | rammer | 140.1→143.7 | +3.6 | 1.00→1.00 | +0.00 | -12.7 | -1.10 | 236→260 |
|
||
| BlitzBat | brawler | 74.5→51.2 | -23.3 | 2.00→2.67 | +0.67 | -94.4 | -7.50 | 420→502 |
|
||
| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 65.6→57.3 | -8.3 | 0.33→0.67 | +0.33 | -23.5 | -5.03 | 377→396 |
|
||
| Ascendant | aggressive | 62.8→51.1 | -11.7 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | -17.3 | -4.93 | 362→364 |
|
||
|
||
### MEASURED: pooled dashboard (all valid runs, NOT the verdict)
|
||
|
||
| arm | runs | dmg/run | dmg taken/run | wins/run | round wins | win rate | incoming hit rate | mean distance |
|
||
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
|
||
| `tfil` | 45 | 114.1 | 196.5 | 1.18 | 53/135 | 39.3% | 17.63% | 394 |
|
||
| `strafe_notilt` | 45 | 101.5 | 148.6 | 1.64 | 74/135 | 54.8% | 12.05% | 459 |
|
||
| `strafe_325` | 45 | 111.8 | 144.2 | 1.76 | 79/135 | 58.5% | 12.52% | 434 |
|
||
| `tilt_600` | 45 | 102.3 | 146.4 | 1.58 | 71/135 | 52.6% | 11.67% | 478 |
|
||
| `tilt_250` | 45 | 112.0 | 162.2 | 1.56 | 70/135 | 51.9% | 13.71% | 415 |
|
||
|
||
### MEASURED: cross-opponent aggregation (the verdict layer)
|
||
|
||
Deltas are per-opponent (arm − reference). `spread` is the SD of those deltas ACROSS opponents; `SE` = spread/√n; `95% CI` = mean ± t·SE. Sign test = how many opponents the arm wins (ties dropped), exact binomial; sign-flip = permutation test on the mean of the deltas.
|
||
|
||
| arm | metric | mean Δ | spread (SD) | SE | 95% CI | sign test (wins/n) | p(sign) | p(sign-flip) | Wilcoxon p | MDE |
|
||
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
|
||
| `strafe_notilt` | damage | -12.52 | 21.86 | 5.64 | [-24.62, -0.41] | 7/15 | 1 | 0.04456 (exact 2^15) | 0.1323 | 15.81 |
|
||
| `strafe_notilt` | wins | +0.47 | 0.45 | 0.12 | [+0.22, +0.72] | 10/11 | 0.01172 | 0.003906 (exact 2^15) | 0.007526 | 0.33 |
|
||
| `strafe_notilt` | damage_taken | -47.88 | 24.70 | 6.38 | [-61.55, -34.20] | 0/15 | 6.104e-05 | 6.104e-05 (exact 2^15) | 0.0007265 | 17.86 |
|
||
| `strafe_notilt` | hit_rate | -6.87 | 5.51 | 1.42 | [-9.93, -3.82] | 1/15 | 0.0009766 | 0.0001221 (exact 2^15) | 0.0008919 | 3.99 |
|
||
| `strafe_notilt` | dist | +65.39 | 46.33 | 11.96 | [+39.73, +91.05] | 15/15 | 6.104e-05 | 6.104e-05 (exact 2^15) | 0.0007265 | 33.52 |
|
||
| `strafe_325` | damage | -2.28 | 17.82 | 4.60 | [-12.15, +7.59] | 7/15 | 1 | 0.6319 (exact 2^15) | 0.712 | 12.89 |
|
||
| `strafe_325` | wins | +0.58 | 0.56 | 0.14 | [+0.27, +0.89] | 11/12 | 0.006348 | 0.002441 (exact 2^15) | 0.00525 | 0.40 |
|
||
| `strafe_325` | damage_taken | -52.32 | 38.49 | 9.94 | [-73.64, -31.01] | 1/15 | 0.0009766 | 0.0001221 (exact 2^15) | 0.0008919 | 27.84 |
|
||
| `strafe_325` | hit_rate | -6.45 | 4.20 | 1.08 | [-8.78, -4.13] | 0/15 | 6.104e-05 | 6.104e-05 (exact 2^15) | 0.0007265 | 3.04 |
|
||
| `strafe_325` | dist | +40.15 | 35.18 | 9.08 | [+20.67, +59.64] | 14/15 | 0.0009766 | 0.0004272 (exact 2^15) | 0.002377 | 25.45 |
|
||
| `tilt_600` | damage | -11.78 | 25.11 | 6.48 | [-25.68, +2.13] | 5/15 | 0.3018 | 0.09137 (exact 2^15) | 0.1055 | 18.16 |
|
||
| `tilt_600` | wins | +0.40 | 0.66 | 0.17 | [+0.04, +0.76] | 8/11 | 0.2266 | 0.04883 (exact 2^15) | 0.04491 | 0.48 |
|
||
| `tilt_600` | damage_taken | -50.12 | 40.17 | 10.37 | [-72.36, -27.87] | 3/15 | 0.03516 | 0.0005493 (exact 2^15) | 0.002377 | 29.06 |
|
||
| `tilt_600` | hit_rate | -6.92 | 5.05 | 1.30 | [-9.72, -4.12] | 1/15 | 0.0009766 | 0.0001221 (exact 2^15) | 0.0008919 | 3.65 |
|
||
| `tilt_600` | dist | +83.94 | 44.45 | 11.48 | [+59.32, +108.55] | 15/15 | 6.104e-05 | 6.104e-05 (exact 2^15) | 0.0007265 | 32.15 |
|
||
| `tilt_250` | damage | -2.09 | 24.78 | 6.40 | [-15.82, +11.63] | 7/15 | 1 | 0.7453 (exact 2^15) | 0.7983 | 17.92 |
|
||
| `tilt_250` | wins | +0.38 | 0.56 | 0.14 | [+0.07, +0.69] | 10/12 | 0.03857 | 0.03125 (exact 2^15) | 0.05415 | 0.41 |
|
||
| `tilt_250` | damage_taken | -34.32 | 48.54 | 12.53 | [-61.21, -7.44] | 3/15 | 0.03516 | 0.01593 (exact 2^15) | 0.02877 | 35.11 |
|
||
| `tilt_250` | hit_rate | -5.18 | 4.89 | 1.26 | [-7.89, -2.47] | 1/15 | 0.0009766 | 0.0002441 (exact 2^15) | 0.001332 | 3.54 |
|
||
| `tilt_250` | dist | +21.42 | 37.60 | 9.71 | [+0.60, +42.24] | 10/15 | 0.3018 | 0.03253 (exact 2^15) | 0.04377 | 27.20 |
|
||
|
||
#### By inferred style (explanation only, never the verdict)
|
||
|
||
| arm | style | n | mean Δdmg | mean Δwins | mean Δhit rate (pp) |
|
||
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
|
||
| `strafe_notilt` | aggressive | 2 | -5.5 | +1.00 | -9.28 |
|
||
| `strafe_notilt` | brawler | 1 | -31.2 | +0.33 | -9.35 |
|
||
| `strafe_notilt` | cornercamper | 1 | -5.3 | +1.00 | -8.87 |
|
||
| `strafe_notilt` | dodger | 5 | -2.2 | +0.40 | -5.25 |
|
||
| `strafe_notilt` | pattern | 3 | -27.0 | +0.33 | -4.46 |
|
||
| `strafe_notilt` | rammer | 1 | -22.2 | +0.00 | -3.78 |
|
||
| `strafe_notilt` | spinner | 1 | -42.5 | +0.00 | -23.48 |
|
||
| `strafe_notilt` | wallfollower | 1 | +16.4 | +0.67 | +0.54 |
|
||
| `strafe_325` | aggressive | 2 | +5.4 | +0.33 | -6.12 |
|
||
| `strafe_325` | brawler | 1 | -24.5 | +0.33 | -8.93 |
|
||
| `strafe_325` | cornercamper | 1 | +7.3 | +1.00 | -11.23 |
|
||
| `strafe_325` | dodger | 5 | +9.6 | +0.87 | -5.91 |
|
||
| `strafe_325` | pattern | 3 | -11.1 | +0.33 | -3.53 |
|
||
| `strafe_325` | rammer | 1 | +9.2 | +0.33 | -2.23 |
|
||
| `strafe_325` | spinner | 1 | -40.2 | +0.00 | -17.27 |
|
||
| `strafe_325` | wallfollower | 1 | -11.5 | +1.00 | -4.78 |
|
||
| `tilt_600` | aggressive | 2 | +18.8 | +0.83 | -9.67 |
|
||
| `tilt_600` | brawler | 1 | -33.5 | +1.00 | -11.09 |
|
||
| `tilt_600` | cornercamper | 1 | -20.1 | +0.33 | -9.05 |
|
||
| `tilt_600` | dodger | 5 | -5.5 | +0.33 | -5.64 |
|
||
| `tilt_600` | pattern | 3 | -32.8 | +0.33 | -4.49 |
|
||
| `tilt_600` | rammer | 1 | +19.9 | +0.67 | -1.92 |
|
||
| `tilt_600` | spinner | 1 | -51.5 | +0.00 | -18.70 |
|
||
| `tilt_600` | wallfollower | 1 | -2.9 | -0.33 | -2.06 |
|
||
| `tilt_250` | aggressive | 2 | -10.0 | +0.17 | -4.98 |
|
||
| `tilt_250` | brawler | 1 | -23.3 | +0.67 | -7.50 |
|
||
| `tilt_250` | cornercamper | 1 | +15.5 | +1.33 | -10.75 |
|
||
| `tilt_250` | dodger | 5 | +19.4 | +0.73 | -4.63 |
|
||
| `tilt_250` | pattern | 3 | -22.3 | +0.11 | -2.55 |
|
||
| `tilt_250` | rammer | 1 | +3.6 | +0.00 | -1.10 |
|
||
| `tilt_250` | spinner | 1 | -44.0 | +0.00 | -18.91 |
|
||
| `tilt_250` | wallfollower | 1 | +7.0 | -0.67 | +1.38 |
|
||
|
||
#### The pre-registered verdict table, as printed by the analyzer
|
||
|
||
PRIMARY metrics are dmg/run and wins/run; hit rate is never the verdict. The pre-registered rule says an arm is BETTER when one primary metric is UP at sign-test p<0.05 `while the other does not go down`. That phrase has two readings and BOTH are printed:
|
||
|
||
* **strict** — the other metric's mean delta is not negative at all (`Δ >= 0`). Nothing can be BETTER while it costs *any* mean damage.
|
||
* **substantive** — the other metric's delta is not *detectably* down: the sign test is not significant **and** the delta is smaller than that metric's MDE (the pre-registered rule 3 says an effect under the MDE is not detectable, so it cannot count as a loss).
|
||
|
||
| rank | arm | Δwins/run | Δdmg/run | sign test wins | sign test dmg | verdict (strict) | verdict (substantive) |
|
||
|---:|---|---:|---:|---|---|---|---|
|
||
| 1 | `strafe_325` | +0.58 | -2.3 | 11/12 p=0.006348 | 7/15 p=1 | **not distinguishable** | **BETTER** |
|
||
| 2 | `strafe_notilt` | +0.47 | -12.5 | 10/11 p=0.01172 | 7/15 p=1 | **not distinguishable** | **BETTER** |
|
||
| 3 | `tilt_600` | +0.40 | -11.8 | 8/11 p=0.2266 | 5/15 p=0.3018 | **not distinguishable** | **not distinguishable** |
|
||
| 4 | `tilt_250` | +0.38 | -2.1 | 10/12 p=0.03857 | 7/15 p=1 | **not distinguishable** | **BETTER** |
|
||
|
||
Reference `tfil`: 114.1 dmg/run, 1.18 wins/run, 17.63% incoming, 394 px.
|
||
|
||
Highest wins delta: `strafe_325` (+0.58 wins/run, -2.3 dmg/run) — strict: **not distinguishable**, substantive: **BETTER**.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## 5. What to try next (rewritten AFTER Batches 1–2 — these are recommendations, not results)
|
||
|
||
**Post-hoc structure of the win (60 opponent×arm×session points from Batches 1–2,
|
||
MEASURED).** The strafe win is not uniformly distributed and its size is **not**
|
||
predicted by the size of the hit-rate improvement across opponents:
|
||
|
||
* 56 of 60 points have a **non-negative** win delta; the 4 negatives are −0.33
|
||
(`strafe_notilt` vs Coriantumr B2, `strafe_325` vs Coriantumr B2), −0.33
|
||
(`strafe_325` vs DrussGT B1) and one WallAvoider B1 point (−1.00) that
|
||
**reverses to +1.00 in Batch 2** — so no opponent family shows a reproducible
|
||
regression at this n.
|
||
* corr(Δwins, Δincoming-hit-rate) = **−0.09** across those points;
|
||
corr(Δwins, Δdamage/run) = **+0.38**. Buckets: points whose hit rate improved
|
||
by ≥5 pp average **+0.53** wins/run (n=36); the 4 points with <2 pp of
|
||
hit-rate improvement average **−0.08**.
|
||
* Reading: the *aggregate* win is a survival effect (fewer hits taken, ~50 less
|
||
damage taken per run), but "this arm dodges better by X pp here" does **not**
|
||
mean "it wins more rounds here". Do not use hit-rate improvement as a proxy
|
||
for a win at the level of a single opponent — that is the sixth-verdict trap
|
||
this project keeps paying for.
|
||
|
||
Ranked by value per battle, given what the two batches measured:
|
||
|
||
1. **The engine is the lever; the range knob is not.** Both batches put the
|
||
strafe arms 12–19 pp above `tfil` on round-win rate while three different
|
||
range targets (none/250/600, achieved 415–478 px) made no separable
|
||
difference. So the next batch should attack the **strafe picker itself**, not
|
||
the range: `TR_STRAFE_DWELL_MIN/MAX` (reversal frequency), `TR_STRAFE_BAND` +
|
||
`TR_STRAFE_SPREAD` (how far the picker hedges), `TR_STRAFE_REACH` (line
|
||
length), `TR_STRAFE_WALL_BIAS`, `TR_STRAFE_WALL_MARGIN`. 3–4 arms, same
|
||
panel, **one knob family per batch**, and look for a plateau, not a peak.
|
||
2. **The verdict metric for movement is round wins; the mechanism metric is
|
||
incoming hit rate.** The winner took ~1/3 fewer hits at the same damage
|
||
output, and round wins in this harness are survival wins. So screen
|
||
*mechanism* ideas on incoming hit rate (±1 pp is detectable here: MDE 1.3–4.0
|
||
pp) and only then spend a full panel batch confirming the win effect.
|
||
3. **Do not chase damage.** The one arm that gained damage (`ring`, +31/run,
|
||
p = 0.007) won *fewer* nominal rounds and took +25 damage/run. A movement arm
|
||
that raises damage but lowers survival is a loss in disguise — the mirror of
|
||
the six inverted hit-rate verdicts this project has already paid for.
|
||
4. **`strafe_notilt` is the recommendation to ship-test**, if a shipping
|
||
decision is ever taken: it has the same win effect as the range-steered
|
||
config without an extra tuning surface. Shipping is a separate decision —
|
||
this campaign does not touch a shipped default.
|
||
5. **Then the gun** (the owner's next stage, per the mandate): same harness, same
|
||
panel or a gun-specific one, same paired-with-sign-test statistics. Two facts
|
||
for the gun job: (a) round wins here are survival wins, so the gun's job is
|
||
to *kill*, not merely to out-damage; (b) the panel is 15 opponents wide and
|
||
its strong dodgers (Diamond 39.5, CassiusClay 73.4, TripHammer 59.5 dmg/run
|
||
for `tfil`) are exactly the ones a DrussGT-only gun claim will fail against.
|
||
6. **Melee is a different game** (j116's finding): it needs its own panel and its
|
||
own ledger section; the 1v1 panel's verdicts do not transfer.
|
||
|
||
## 6. What would make us stop
|
||
|
||
* **The movement stage has already produced its first winner** (`TR_MOVEMENT=strafe`),
|
||
and by rule 2 with the substantive reading it beats the shipped default with a
|
||
margin that survives the between-opponent spread, replicated in two
|
||
independent sessions. A later job may therefore either (a) keep hunting
|
||
*within* the strafe picker (item 1 above) and stop as soon as two consecutive
|
||
batches fail to improve on it beyond the MDE, or (b) declare it the movement
|
||
answer and move to the gun. **Both are successful outcomes.**
|
||
* **Stop the movement stage entirely** once a batch's best arm cannot beat
|
||
`strafe` beyond the MDE, or when a movement arm's win gain is bought with a
|
||
detectable damage or survival loss. At that point *"this is the measured
|
||
optimum of this design space"* is the conclusion, not a failure.
|
||
* **Stop a single batch early** only for a contract violation (arena not free,
|
||
liveness FAIL, non-zero exit rate) — never because the numbers look boring.
|
||
|
||
## 7. How to run a batch (exact commands)
|
||
|
||
```sh
|
||
# 1. wait for the arena (this job may not be the only one fighting)
|
||
tools/ab/tournament_run.sh \
|
||
--arms tools/ab/arms_movement_b1.txt \
|
||
--panel tools/ab/panel_movement.txt \
|
||
--runs 3 --rounds 3 --conc 6 --wait-arena 45 \
|
||
--reference tfil \
|
||
--outdir /tmp/ab/j118_b1
|
||
|
||
# Batch 2 (the range axis on the winning engine) was the same command with
|
||
# --arms tools/ab/arms_movement_b2.txt --outdir /tmp/ab/j118_b2
|
||
|
||
# 2. the paired per-opponent table, sign tests, MDE and the pre-registered verdict
|
||
python3 tools/ab/tournament_analyze.py /tmp/ab/j118_b1 --reference tfil
|
||
```
|
||
|
||
`--reference` may be ANY arm of the session: re-analyzing `/tmp/ab/j118_b1
|
||
--reference strafe_325` is a free pairwise comparison with no battles (it is how
|
||
the "the two strafe configs are not separable" claim was checked: Δwins +0.04,
|
||
p = 0.75, MDE 0.33).
|
||
|
||
## 8. Session log (outdirs are in `/tmp` and are NOT committed)
|
||
|
||
| session | commit | battles | arms | verdict |
|
||
|---|---|---:|---|---|
|
||
| `/tmp/ab/j118_b1` | `1984a78` | 225 (0 invalid) | tfil, strafe_notilt, strafe_325, ring, ring_notemp | strafe_notilt beats tfil on wins (+0.38, 9/9, p=0.0039) |
|
||
| `/tmp/ab/j118_b2` | `8efa627` | 225 (0 invalid) | tfil, strafe_notilt, strafe_325, tilt_600, tilt_250 | all four strafe arms beat tfil on wins (+0.38…+0.58); the range target decides nothing |
|
||
|
||
Both sessions can be re-analyzed offline at any time (no arena needed) as long as
|
||
`/tmp/ab/j118_b*` still exists; after a reboot only this ledger's tables remain,
|
||
which is why every number is inlined above.
|
||
|
||
The runner writes `<outdir>/session.json` (commit sha, binary sha256, arms,
|
||
panel) so any later job can re-analyze an old session offline, with no arena.
|