SirRoboGarage/docs/movement_campaign.md

# Movement campaign — ledger

**Goal (owner's mandate, 2026-09-26 overnight):** find the *best 1v1 movement*
by measurement, then do the same for the gun. This file is the campaign's
single source of truth: every later job **appends** a `## Batch N` section and
never edits an earlier one (a wrong earlier number gets a correction line, not
a rewrite).

**Owner's words:** *"I want you to do all tests and checks with the goal to have
the best 1vs1 movement. You have all night, you can change every parameter.
Continue until you found an amazing movement. When found do the same over for a
gun."*

---

## 0. The one caveat this campaign exists to close

Everything measured about movement before this campaign is **DrussGT-only**:
`docs/surfer_wiring_ab.md`, the j107 range drift, the j113 BitBrain movement
notes. The standing lesson of the night is that a one-opponent result is not a
result:

> an arm can take fewer hits **and** win fewer rounds (j107 / `strafe`): the
> verdict lives in **damage/run + ROUND WINS**, and hit rate is only ever an
> explanation.

So from here on **the unit of evidence is the number of opponents**, not the
number of runs: the same arm must win on *many* opponents before it is called
better.

---

## 1. Protocol (how every batch must be run)

| Element | Rule |
|---|---|
| Subject | ONE frozen binary, built from `git archive HEAD` (`tools/ab/tournament_run.sh` does this; the commit sha and binary sha256 are recorded in `session.json`) |
| Arms | env dicts only — **no per-arm rebuild, ever**; the arm file is a committed file, not a shell history |
| Panel | the **frozen** panel `tools/ab/panel_movement.txt`. Adding/removing an opponent starts a **new batch number** |
| Pairing | per opponent: average the arm's runs, subtract the reference arm's average for that same opponent → one delta per opponent; then aggregate |
| Isolation | per-run bot dir + classic data dir, ephemeral ports, own process group; cleanup only by this session's outdir |
| Serialization | **one battle fleet at a time.** `tournament_run.sh --wait-arena N` refuses/stalls while another job's `run_bridge_battle`/`TrBattleCapture`/`ModularBot_bin` is alive (bracketed pgrep; never a broad `pkill`) |
| Liveness | every declared env token must appear verbatim in OUR bot's own `[env]` boot report, else the run is excluded and named in the report; an undeclared `TR_MOVEMENT` in the process env is a fatal FAIL for the reference arm |
| Never shipped | this is a measurement + design campaign: `git status` clean, defaults untouched, `.gitignore` untouched |

### Pre-registered decision rules (fixed BEFORE Batch 1 ran, commit `1984a78`)

> Provenance note: the harness and these rules were written and staged before
> Batch 1 was fought, but a parallel job's `git commit` (j116, same working
> tree / same index) swept the staged files into **its** commit `1984a78`
> ("melee A/B doc…"). The rules are therefore committed under a neighbour's
> message — they are nonetheless dated before the data: no battle of Batch 1
> had been launched when they were written, and Batch 1's session.json records
> the same commit `1984a78` as the frozen-binary source.`)

1. **Primary metrics:** damage/run and ROUND WINS. Secondary/explanation only:
   damage taken/run, incoming hit rate (enemy hits ÷ enemy shots), achieved mean
   distance.
2. **BETTER than the reference** iff one primary metric is up with a
   cross-opponent **sign test p < 0.05** while the other does **not** go down;
   or the mirror image for **WORSE**. Anything else is **NOT
   DISTINGUISHABLE** (which is a real answer, not a failure).
3. **A verdict must survive the between-opponent spread**: the pooled mean delta
   is reported with the SD across opponents, its SE, a 95% CI, and the MDE
   (α=0.05 two-sided, 80% power) — an effect smaller than the MDE is reported as
   *not detectable*, never as *absent* and never as a win.
4. **Somewhere to stop:** if no arm beats the shipped `tfil` by rule 2 in
   Batch 1 **and** no arm shows a ≥ +MDE damage gain with p<0.10, the movement
   stage's first phase is closed with *"the shipped `tfil` is the best movement
   we have measured"* — that is a **successful** outcome, and the campaign moves
   to the gun axis rather than inventing more movement arms. See
   *What would make us stop* at the end.
5. **No promotion off a single metric, a single opponent, or a single run.**
   A change that wins damage by losing wins (or vice-versa) is not a win.
6. Every batch is shot with a **pre-registered prediction** stated in its
   section *before* the battles finish; a prediction that turns out wrong is
   recorded as wrong.

---

## 2. Stage 0 — what we already know (given, not re-derived)

Live A/B vs real DrussGT, 15 runs × 7 rounds, one frozen binary
(`docs/surfer_wiring_ab.md`, commit `0f5cfe3`):

| arm | dmg/run | dmg taken | round wins | incoming hit rate |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| `tfil` (SHIPPED) | **293** | 224 | **45/105** | 10.40% |
| `strafe` (range 325) | 250 | **198** | 37/105 | **9.40%** |
| `surf` | 255 | 259 | 37/105 | 13.51% |

Read: the shipped `tfil` deals the most damage and wins the most rounds while
being hit the *most*; `strafe` dodges best and wins least. Plus j107: drifting
25–30 px closer made damage **and** wins worse, so the lever is not simply "get
closer". **Hypothesis entering the campaign: the 325 px range preference of
`strafe` costs wins** (INFERRED from DrussGT-only data — this is exactly what
Batch 1 tests across a panel).

---

## 3. Batch 1 — isolating the range / aggression axis

**Design.** One frozen binary, five env-only arms, one frozen panel
(`tools/ab/panel_movement.txt`, 15 opponents: 5 dodger, 3 pattern, 2
wall-follower/corner-camper, 1 spinner, 2 rammer/brawler, 2 aggressive megas),
3 runs × 3 rounds per (opponent, arm). Arm file:
`tools/ab/arms_movement_b1.txt`.

| # | arm | env | what it isolates |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | `tfil` | *(none — shipped defaults)* | the arm to beat |
| 2 | `strafe_notilt` | `TR_MOVEMENT=strafe TR_STRAFE_RANGE_TOL=999999` | the COST of the 325 range preference: tilt is provably 0 every tick, so this is pure perpendicular strafe with **no range steering at all** |
| 3 | `strafe_325` | `TR_MOVEMENT=strafe` | the current strafe default (range 325, tol 25, tilt 15/0.10) |
| 4 | `ring` | `TR_MOVEMENT=tfil_ring` | TFIL semantics + retuned heat field (corridor 10, wall 15, radiance 5, bullet core/aura 20/10, 5-tick commit) **with** the range-weighted tile draw (band 100–200) |
| 5 | `ring_notemp` | `TR_MOVEMENT=tfil_ring TR_TFIL_RANGE_TEMP=0` | the control for #4: same retuned heat field, range weighting switched OFF (`rand(candidates.high)` path) |

`ring` − `ring_notemp` is therefore the range-weighting lever **alone**, on a
heat field that is already retuned. The originally-suggested 5th arm ("`tfil`
with less saturated heat") is **not buildable in this campaign**: in
`common_libs/movements/the_floor_is_lava.nim` `CorridorHeat`/`WallHotness` are
Nim `const`s (env_report only *reports* them); only the `tfil_ring` copy reads
them from the env. #5 is the honest substitute.

**Pre-registered prediction (written before the battles finished):** `tfil`
still wins the panel on damage and round wins; `strafe_notilt` will beat
`strafe_325` on round wins (the range tilt is a net cost), and the ring arms will
land between them. If instead the range-steering arms beat `tfil` on wins, the
"range preference costs wins" hypothesis is confirmed across bots, not just
against DrussGT.

### Outcome — direct answer

**Batch 1 is a NULL for the hypothesis that the shipped `tfil` is the best
movement. It is not.** Measured on the frozen 15-opponent panel, one frozen
binary, 225 battles, **0 invalid runs, 0 liveness failures, 0 failed starts**:

| arm | dmg/run | wins/run | round wins | incoming hit rate | dmg taken/run | mean distance |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| `tfil` (SHIPPED) | 118.9 | 1.22 | 55/135 (40.7%) | 18.17% | 199.8 | 382 px |
| **`strafe_notilt`** | 108.8 | **1.60** | **72/135 (53.3%)** | **12.24%** | **150.3** | 456 px |
| `strafe_325` | 111.8 | 1.56 | 70/135 (51.9%) | 13.14% | 155.7 | 436 px |
| `ring_notemp` | 108.2 | 1.29 | 58/135 (43.0%) | 16.67% | 193.4 | 395 px |
| `ring` | **150.1** | 1.18 | 53/135 (39.3%) | 29.42% | 225.1 | 236 px |

Paired across opponents, the winner is **`strafe_notilt`** (pure perpendicular
strafe, range steering provably off): **Δwins/run +0.38** [95% CI +0.16, +0.60],
positive on **9 of 9 decisive opponents** (exact sign test **p = 0.0039**,
sign-flip permutation p = 0.0039, Wilcoxon p = 0.0090), and **Δdmg/run −10.2**
[−25.8, +5.5], p = 0.61, **MDE 20.4 ⇒ not detectable** — i.e. **+17 rounds out
of 135 won, at no detectable damage cost**, with a third fewer incoming hits
(hit rate −7.3 pp, p = 6e-5, and 0/15 opponents in favour of `tfil`) and 50 less
damage taken per run. `strafe_325` is the same effect, slightly smaller
(Δwins/run +0.33, [0.04, +0.63], p = 0.039, 10/12) — the two strafe arms are
**not separable from each other** by this batch.

`ring` is the *opposite trade* and must not be read as a movement win: it deals
**+31.2 dmg/run** (+26%, p = 0.0074, 13/15) but wins **no more rounds**
(Δwins −0.04, p = 1.00) and pays for the damage with the panel's **worst**
dodging (hit rate 29.42% vs 18.17%, +25 dmg taken/run) because it fights at a
mean **236 px** (vs 382/456). `ring_notemp` — the same retuned heat field with
the range weighting switched off — is **indistinguishable from `tfil` on both
primaries**, so the heat-field retune alone is not what makes `strafe` win
(INFERRED: `ring_notemp` also differs from `tfil` in commit ticks and wall
radiance, so this is evidence against, not a clean isolation).

**Mechanism (MEASURED, and the reason the win is a movement win):** in **216 of
the 219 attributable runs**, our round-win count equals exactly the number of
rounds in which the **opponent's death event** appears — round wins in this
harness are survival wins. The winning arm survives by taking fewer, weaker hits
at longer range, not by dealing more damage (its damage is unchanged).

**DIRECT ANSWER.** The best 1v1 movement measured across this panel is
**`TR_MOVEMENT=strafe` with the range tilt disabled** (pure perpendicular
strafe, no range steering). It beats the shipped `tfil` on round wins by an
effect that **survives the between-opponent spread** (observed +0.38 vs MDE
0.29; 9/9 opponents; CI excludes 0) with **no detectable damage cost**, and it
dodges substantially better. `strafe_325` (the current strafe default) is
essentially the same arm. The shipped `tfil` is **4th of the five on round
wins** (only `ring` is nominally lower, and `tfil` vs `ring` on wins is a dead
heat, p = 1.00): the hypothesis in §2 that its win came from the DrussGT-only
measurement is **supported** — on a panel it loses to both strafe arms.

**Correction (added after the Batch-1 commit `0776630`, whose message says "last
of five"):** `tfil` is 4th of five, not last — `ring` is nominally 0.04 wins/run
lower and that difference is not significant. The batch message overstates one
word; the numbers it quotes are the measured ones.

**The pre-registered prediction for this batch was WRONG and is recorded as
wrong:** I predicted `tfil` would still win the panel (it came 4th of five on
wins) and
that `strafe_notilt` would beat `strafe_325` on wins (it does by +0.05 wins/run,
which this batch cannot resolve).

**Honest readings of the pre-registered rule** (both printed by the analyzer;
the strict reading is the literal one and it is NOT satisfied by anything):

* **strict** (`the other metric's mean delta is not negative at all`): no arm is
  BETTER than `tfil`. The two strafe arms win more rounds but their mean damage
  is 7–10/run lower (inside the MDE, but negative).
* **substantive** (the other primary metric is not *detectably* down — sign test
  not significant and |Δ| < its MDE, per rule 3): `strafe_notilt`, `strafe_325`
  and `ring` are each BETTER than `tfil` on one primary metric.
* The ordering is identical under both readings, and under the standing rule
  (**round wins first, then damage**) the winner is `strafe_notilt`.

### The analyzer's full report (verbatim)

### MEASURED: session

* commit `1984a780f494ce246e0f916934b9581e07c89ed2`, frozen binary sha256 `1817c75ab1d0…`
* 15 opponents × 5 arms × 3 runs × 3 rounds = 225 battles, conc=6
* arms file `arms_movement_b1.txt`, panel file `panel_movement.txt`
* reference arm: **`tfil`** — every delta below is (arm − tfil), opponent by opponent

* liveness: 0 run(s) excluded (225 total)

### MEASURED: per-opponent paired table (per arm)

#### `tfil` — shipped baseline (movement engine tfil, every knob at its default)  (paired on 15 opponents)

| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| DrussGT | dodger | 124.7→124.7 | +0.0 | 1.67→1.67 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 452→452 |
| Diamond | dodger | 39.5→39.5 | +0.0 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 458→458 |
| Dookious | dodger | 130.1→130.1 | +0.0 | 1.00→1.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 410→410 |
| GresSuffurd | dodger | 129.2→129.2 | +0.0 | 1.33→1.33 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 413→413 |
| CassiusClay | dodger | 73.4→73.4 | +0.0 | 0.33→0.33 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 339→339 |
| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.0→181.0 | +0.0 | 2.33→2.33 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 402→402 |
| TripHammer | pattern | 59.5→59.5 | +0.0 | 0.33→0.33 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 418→418 |
| Coriantumr | pattern | 67.8→67.8 | +0.0 | 1.00→1.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 424→424 |
| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 229.1→229.1 | +0.0 | 2.67→2.67 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 277→277 |
| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 150.7→150.7 | +0.0 | 1.67→1.67 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 410→410 |
| SpinBot | spinner | 279.3→279.3 | +0.0 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 351→351 |
| DiamondStealer | rammer | 139.4→139.4 | +0.0 | 0.67→0.67 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 235→235 |
| BlitzBat | brawler | 54.3→54.3 | +0.0 | 2.00→2.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 422→422 |
| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 52.3→52.3 | +0.0 | 0.33→0.33 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 401→401 |
| Ascendant | aggressive | 73.3→73.3 | +0.0 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 317→317 |

#### `strafe_notilt` — strafe, range steering OFF (tilt always 0)  (paired on 15 opponents)

| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| DrussGT | dodger | 124.7→115.7 | -9.0 | 1.67→1.67 | +0.00 | -31.6 | -2.95 | 452→535 |
| Diamond | dodger | 39.5→56.6 | +17.1 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | -62.9 | -7.97 | 458→543 |
| Dookious | dodger | 130.1→105.8 | -24.3 | 1.00→1.00 | +0.00 | -60.1 | -6.08 | 410→484 |
| GresSuffurd | dodger | 129.2→111.3 | -17.8 | 1.33→2.33 | +1.00 | -36.3 | -8.61 | 413→482 |
| CassiusClay | dodger | 73.4→92.1 | +18.7 | 0.33→1.33 | +1.00 | -55.5 | -7.24 | 339→397 |
| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.0→133.2 | -47.8 | 2.33→2.67 | +0.33 | -0.9 | -2.46 | 402→447 |
| TripHammer | pattern | 59.5→57.5 | -2.1 | 0.33→0.67 | +0.33 | -45.0 | -3.84 | 418→547 |
| Coriantumr | pattern | 67.8→77.2 | +9.4 | 1.00→1.67 | +0.67 | -54.2 | -3.35 | 424→554 |
| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 229.1→162.1 | -66.9 | 2.67→2.67 | +0.00 | -54.9 | -9.49 | 277→361 |
| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 150.7→95.7 | -55.0 | 1.67→1.67 | +0.00 | -76.2 | -7.27 | 410→567 |
| SpinBot | spinner | 279.3→271.3 | -8.0 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | -42.7 | -14.27 | 351→335 |
| DiamondStealer | rammer | 139.4→154.7 | +15.2 | 0.67→1.00 | +0.33 | -33.7 | -2.80 | 235→243 |
| BlitzBat | brawler | 54.3→41.5 | -12.8 | 2.00→3.00 | +1.00 | -105.6 | -13.42 | 422→588 |
| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 52.3→78.4 | +26.0 | 0.33→1.00 | +0.67 | -45.0 | -6.09 | 401→397 |
| Ascendant | aggressive | 73.3→78.2 | +4.9 | 0.00→0.33 | +0.33 | -36.9 | -14.30 | 317→364 |

#### `strafe_325` — strafe default (range 325, tol 25, tilt 15/0.10)  (paired on 15 opponents)

| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| DrussGT | dodger | 124.7→118.5 | -6.2 | 1.67→1.33 | -0.33 | -17.5 | -1.77 | 452→494 |
| Diamond | dodger | 39.5→71.8 | +32.2 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | -38.7 | -5.93 | 458→506 |
| Dookious | dodger | 130.1→84.0 | -46.0 | 1.00→2.00 | +1.00 | -108.4 | -9.12 | 410→457 |
| GresSuffurd | dodger | 129.2→112.3 | -16.9 | 1.33→2.00 | +0.67 | -26.1 | -5.44 | 413→430 |
| CassiusClay | dodger | 73.4→81.5 | +8.1 | 0.33→1.33 | +1.00 | -68.4 | -7.31 | 339→386 |
| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.0→169.4 | -11.6 | 2.33→2.33 | +0.00 | -7.9 | -3.52 | 402→425 |
| TripHammer | pattern | 59.5→43.6 | -15.9 | 0.33→0.67 | +0.33 | -43.0 | -4.74 | 418→500 |
| Coriantumr | pattern | 67.8→96.5 | +28.7 | 1.00→1.67 | +0.67 | -46.2 | -3.37 | 424→494 |
| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 229.1→163.8 | -65.2 | 2.67→1.67 | -1.00 | -12.1 | -7.90 | 277→332 |
| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 150.7→119.8 | -30.9 | 1.67→2.00 | +0.33 | -78.8 | -5.38 | 410→517 |
| SpinBot | spinner | 279.3→259.3 | -20.0 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | -37.3 | -12.96 | 351→436 |
| DiamondStealer | rammer | 139.4→135.3 | -4.1 | 0.67→1.33 | +0.67 | -25.4 | -3.50 | 235→274 |
| BlitzBat | brawler | 54.3→60.5 | +6.3 | 2.00→2.67 | +0.67 | -88.1 | -10.88 | 422→531 |
| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 52.3→69.3 | +16.9 | 0.33→0.67 | +0.33 | -15.7 | -2.95 | 401→383 |
| Ascendant | aggressive | 73.3→90.4 | +17.1 | 0.00→0.67 | +0.67 | -47.0 | -12.83 | 317→373 |

#### `ring` — tfil_ring (retuned heat field + range weighting 100-200)  (paired on 15 opponents)

| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| DrussGT | dodger | 124.7→127.8 | +3.1 | 1.67→0.67 | -1.00 | +105.6 | +12.67 | 452→244 |
| Diamond | dodger | 39.5→46.4 | +6.9 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | +40.9 | +17.58 | 458→240 |
| Dookious | dodger | 130.1→149.2 | +19.2 | 1.00→0.33 | -0.67 | +50.0 | +8.21 | 410→267 |
| GresSuffurd | dodger | 129.2→222.7 | +93.6 | 1.33→1.33 | +0.00 | +83.9 | +12.13 | 413→234 |
| CassiusClay | dodger | 73.4→102.5 | +29.1 | 0.33→0.33 | +0.00 | +21.8 | +5.21 | 339→242 |
| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.0→249.8 | +68.8 | 2.33→3.00 | +0.67 | -41.9 | +0.85 | 402→209 |
| TripHammer | pattern | 59.5→76.2 | +16.7 | 0.33→0.00 | -0.33 | +47.8 | +13.66 | 418→266 |
| Coriantumr | pattern | 67.8→119.4 | +51.7 | 1.00→1.00 | +0.00 | +32.1 | +10.39 | 424→258 |
| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 229.1→219.5 | -9.6 | 2.67→1.67 | -1.00 | +57.2 | +7.21 | 277→232 |
| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 150.7→176.4 | +25.7 | 1.67→2.33 | +0.67 | -41.8 | +11.76 | 410→229 |
| SpinBot | spinner | 279.3→336.0 | +56.7 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | +5.3 | +24.20 | 351→172 |
| DiamondStealer | rammer | 139.4→148.7 | +9.3 | 0.67→1.33 | +0.67 | -39.4 | -1.78 | 235→214 |
| BlitzBat | brawler | 54.3→156.7 | +102.5 | 2.00→2.67 | +0.67 | +8.4 | +12.71 | 422→221 |
| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 52.3→43.3 | -9.0 | 0.33→0.00 | -0.33 | +36.2 | +10.82 | 401→266 |
| Ascendant | aggressive | 73.3→76.7 | +3.4 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | +14.0 | +13.54 | 317→243 |

#### `ring_notemp` — tfil_ring, range weighting OFF (temp 0)  (paired on 15 opponents)

| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| DrussGT | dodger | 124.7→108.0 | -16.7 | 1.67→1.33 | -0.33 | -0.8 | -0.72 | 452→436 |
| Diamond | dodger | 39.5→42.9 | +3.4 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | +9.2 | -1.47 | 458→447 |
| Dookious | dodger | 130.1→115.2 | -14.8 | 1.00→1.33 | +0.33 | -24.4 | -3.35 | 410→418 |
| GresSuffurd | dodger | 129.2→118.3 | -10.8 | 1.33→1.33 | +0.00 | +20.9 | -1.75 | 413→433 |
| CassiusClay | dodger | 73.4→92.6 | +19.2 | 0.33→1.67 | +1.33 | -51.0 | -5.72 | 339→388 |
| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.0→126.2 | -54.8 | 2.33→1.33 | -1.00 | +55.3 | +3.00 | 402→405 |
| TripHammer | pattern | 59.5→44.3 | -15.2 | 0.33→0.33 | +0.00 | -4.9 | +0.65 | 418→453 |
| Coriantumr | pattern | 67.8→84.9 | +17.1 | 1.00→1.00 | +0.00 | -1.7 | +0.24 | 424→430 |
| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 229.1→141.1 | -88.0 | 2.67→3.00 | +0.33 | -124.4 | -14.57 | 277→339 |
| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 150.7→134.2 | -16.5 | 1.67→1.33 | -0.33 | +28.8 | +1.77 | 410→436 |
| SpinBot | spinner | 279.3→287.7 | +8.3 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.45 | 351→308 |
| DiamondStealer | rammer | 139.4→154.5 | +15.1 | 0.67→2.00 | +1.33 | -57.4 | -6.08 | 235→254 |
| BlitzBat | brawler | 54.3→57.3 | +3.1 | 2.00→1.67 | -0.33 | +57.7 | +2.97 | 422→436 |
| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 52.3→45.2 | -7.1 | 0.33→0.00 | -0.33 | +21.2 | +2.66 | 401→376 |
| Ascendant | aggressive | 73.3→70.3 | -3.0 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | -23.2 | -8.01 | 317→371 |

### MEASURED: pooled dashboard (all valid runs, NOT the verdict)

| arm | runs | dmg/run | dmg taken/run | wins/run | round wins | win rate | incoming hit rate | mean distance |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| `tfil` | 45 | 118.9 | 199.8 | 1.22 | 55/135 | 40.7% | 18.17% | 382 |
| `strafe_notilt` | 45 | 108.8 | 150.3 | 1.60 | 72/135 | 53.3% | 12.24% | 456 |
| `strafe_325` | 45 | 111.8 | 155.7 | 1.56 | 70/135 | 51.9% | 13.14% | 436 |
| `ring` | 45 | 150.1 | 225.1 | 1.18 | 53/135 | 39.3% | 29.42% | 236 |
| `ring_notemp` | 45 | 108.2 | 193.4 | 1.29 | 58/135 | 43.0% | 16.67% | 395 |

### MEASURED: cross-opponent aggregation (the verdict layer)

Deltas are per-opponent (arm − reference). `spread` is the SD of those deltas ACROSS opponents; `SE` = spread/√n; `95% CI` = mean ± t·SE. Sign test = how many opponents the arm wins (ties dropped), exact binomial; sign-flip = permutation test on the mean of the deltas.

| arm | metric | mean Δ | spread (SD) | SE | 95% CI | sign test (wins/n) | p(sign) | p(sign-flip) | Wilcoxon p | MDE |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| `strafe_notilt` | damage | -10.15 | 28.19 | 7.28 | [-25.76, +5.46] | 6/15 | 0.6072 | 0.1887 (exact 2^15) | 0.3787 | 20.39 |
| `strafe_notilt` | wins | +0.38 | 0.40 | 0.10 | [+0.16, +0.60] | 9/9 | 0.003906 | 0.003906 (exact 2^15) | 0.008969 | 0.29 |
| `strafe_notilt` | damage_taken | -49.44 | 23.28 | 6.01 | [-62.33, -36.54] | 0/15 | 6.104e-05 | 6.104e-05 (exact 2^15) | 0.0007265 | 16.84 |
| `strafe_notilt` | hit_rate | -7.34 | 4.10 | 1.06 | [-9.61, -5.07] | 0/15 | 6.104e-05 | 6.104e-05 (exact 2^15) | 0.0007265 | 2.96 |
| `strafe_notilt` | dist | +74.36 | 54.83 | 14.16 | [+44.00, +104.73] | 13/15 | 0.007385 | 0.0003662 (exact 2^15) | 0.001621 | 39.66 |
| `strafe_325` | damage | -7.15 | 27.04 | 6.98 | [-22.13, +7.82] | 6/15 | 0.6072 | 0.3276 (exact 2^15) | 0.5137 | 19.56 |
| `strafe_325` | wins | +0.33 | 0.53 | 0.14 | [+0.04, +0.63] | 10/12 | 0.03857 | 0.04688 (exact 2^15) | 0.05424 | 0.39 |
| `strafe_325` | damage_taken | -44.05 | 29.86 | 7.71 | [-60.58, -27.51] | 0/15 | 6.104e-05 | 6.104e-05 (exact 2^15) | 0.0007265 | 21.60 |
| `strafe_325` | hit_rate | -6.51 | 3.58 | 0.92 | [-8.49, -4.53] | 0/15 | 6.104e-05 | 6.104e-05 (exact 2^15) | 0.0007265 | 2.59 |
| `strafe_325` | dist | +53.77 | 33.71 | 8.70 | [+35.10, +72.44] | 14/15 | 0.0009766 | 0.0001831 (exact 2^15) | 0.001092 | 24.38 |
| `ring` | damage | +31.19 | 35.61 | 9.19 | [+11.47, +50.91] | 13/15 | 0.007385 | 0.001587 (exact 2^15) | 0.004932 | 25.76 |
| `ring` | wins | -0.04 | 0.56 | 0.14 | [-0.36, +0.27] | 4/9 | 1 | 0.8828 (exact 2^15) | 0.6776 | 0.41 |
| `ring` | damage_taken | +25.35 | 43.46 | 11.22 | [+1.27, +49.42] | 12/15 | 0.03516 | 0.04059 (exact 2^15) | 0.05708 | 31.44 |
| `ring` | hit_rate | +10.61 | 6.32 | 1.63 | [+7.11, +14.11] | 14/15 | 0.0009766 | 0.0001831 (exact 2^15) | 0.001092 | 4.57 |
| `ring` | dist | -146.25 | 60.84 | 15.71 | [-179.94, -112.56] | 0/15 | 6.104e-05 | 6.104e-05 (exact 2^15) | 0.0007265 | 44.01 |
| `ring_notemp` | damage | -10.73 | 28.24 | 7.29 | [-26.37, +4.91] | 6/15 | 0.6072 | 0.1772 (exact 2^15) | 0.3487 | 20.43 |
| `ring_notemp` | wins | +0.07 | 0.61 | 0.16 | [-0.27, +0.40] | 4/9 | 1 | 0.8086 (exact 2^15) | 0.9525 | 0.44 |
| `ring_notemp` | damage_taken | -6.31 | 46.39 | 11.98 | [-32.00, +19.38] | 6/14 | 0.7905 | 0.632 (exact 2^15) | 0.8017 | 33.56 |
| `ring_notemp` | hit_rate | -2.00 | 4.87 | 1.26 | [-4.69, +0.70] | 7/15 | 1 | 0.1341 (exact 2^15) | 0.2681 | 3.52 |
| `ring_notemp` | dist | +13.34 | 29.63 | 7.65 | [-3.07, +29.75] | 11/15 | 0.1185 | 0.1037 (exact 2^15) | 0.1055 | 21.43 |

#### By inferred style (explanation only, never the verdict)

| arm | style | n | mean Δdmg | mean Δwins | mean Δhit rate (pp) |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| `strafe_notilt` | aggressive | 2 | +15.4 | +0.50 | -10.19 |
| `strafe_notilt` | brawler | 1 | -12.8 | +1.00 | -13.42 |
| `strafe_notilt` | cornercamper | 1 | -55.0 | +0.00 | -7.27 |
| `strafe_notilt` | dodger | 5 | -3.1 | +0.40 | -6.57 |
| `strafe_notilt` | pattern | 3 | -13.5 | +0.44 | -3.21 |
| `strafe_notilt` | rammer | 1 | +15.2 | +0.33 | -2.80 |
| `strafe_notilt` | spinner | 1 | -8.0 | +0.00 | -14.27 |
| `strafe_notilt` | wallfollower | 1 | -66.9 | +0.00 | -9.49 |
| `strafe_325` | aggressive | 2 | +17.0 | +0.50 | -7.89 |
| `strafe_325` | brawler | 1 | +6.3 | +0.67 | -10.88 |
| `strafe_325` | cornercamper | 1 | -30.9 | +0.33 | -5.38 |
| `strafe_325` | dodger | 5 | -5.7 | +0.47 | -5.91 |
| `strafe_325` | pattern | 3 | +0.4 | +0.33 | -3.88 |
| `strafe_325` | rammer | 1 | -4.1 | +0.67 | -3.50 |
| `strafe_325` | spinner | 1 | -20.0 | +0.00 | -12.96 |
| `strafe_325` | wallfollower | 1 | -65.2 | -1.00 | -7.90 |
| `ring` | aggressive | 2 | -2.8 | -0.17 | +12.18 |
| `ring` | brawler | 1 | +102.5 | +0.67 | +12.71 |
| `ring` | cornercamper | 1 | +25.7 | +0.67 | +11.76 |
| `ring` | dodger | 5 | +30.4 | -0.33 | +11.16 |
| `ring` | pattern | 3 | +45.7 | +0.11 | +8.30 |
| `ring` | rammer | 1 | +9.3 | +0.67 | -1.78 |
| `ring` | spinner | 1 | +56.7 | +0.00 | +24.20 |
| `ring` | wallfollower | 1 | -9.6 | -1.00 | +7.21 |
| `ring_notemp` | aggressive | 2 | -5.1 | -0.17 | -2.67 |
| `ring_notemp` | brawler | 1 | +3.1 | -0.33 | +2.97 |
| `ring_notemp` | cornercamper | 1 | -16.5 | -0.33 | +1.77 |
| `ring_notemp` | dodger | 5 | -4.0 | +0.27 | -2.60 |
| `ring_notemp` | pattern | 3 | -17.6 | -0.33 | +1.30 |
| `ring_notemp` | rammer | 1 | +15.1 | +1.33 | -6.08 |
| `ring_notemp` | spinner | 1 | +8.3 | +0.00 | +0.45 |
| `ring_notemp` | wallfollower | 1 | -88.0 | +0.33 | -14.57 |

#### The pre-registered verdict table, as printed by the analyzer

PRIMARY metrics are dmg/run and wins/run; hit rate is never the verdict. The pre-registered rule says an arm is BETTER when one primary metric is UP at sign-test p<0.05 `while the other does not go down`. That phrase has two readings and BOTH are printed:

* **strict** — the other metric's mean delta is not negative at all (`Δ >= 0`). Nothing can be BETTER while it costs *any* mean damage.
* **substantive** — the other metric's delta is not *detectably* down: the sign test is not significant **and** the delta is smaller than that metric's MDE (the pre-registered rule 3 says an effect under the MDE is not detectable, so it cannot count as a loss).

| rank | arm | Δwins/run | Δdmg/run | sign test wins | sign test dmg | verdict (strict) | verdict (substantive) |
|---:|---|---:|---:|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | `strafe_notilt` | +0.38 | -10.2 | 9/9 p=0.003906 | 6/15 p=0.6072 | **not distinguishable** | **BETTER** |
| 2 | `strafe_325` | +0.33 | -7.2 | 10/12 p=0.03857 | 6/15 p=0.6072 | **not distinguishable** | **BETTER** |
| 3 | `ring_notemp` | +0.07 | -10.7 | 4/9 p=1 | 6/15 p=0.6072 | **not distinguishable** | **not distinguishable** |
| 4 | `ring` | -0.04 | +31.2 | 4/9 p=1 | 13/15 p=0.007385 | **not distinguishable** | **BETTER** |

Reference `tfil`: 118.9 dmg/run, 1.22 wins/run, 18.17% incoming, 382 px.

Highest wins delta: `strafe_notilt` (+0.38 wins/run, -10.2 dmg/run) — strict: **not distinguishable**, substantive: **BETTER**.


---

## 4. Batch 2 — the range axis ON the winning engine (replication)

**Design.** Same frozen panel, same 3 runs × 3 rounds, new session
`/tmp/ab/j118_b2` (commit `8efa627`, 225 battles, **0 invalid runs, 0 failed
starts**; no source file changed between `1984a78` and `8efa627` — only a
parallel job's new docs/tools — so this is the same code). Arms
(`tools/ab/arms_movement_b2.txt`): the winner and the strafe default from
Batch 1 (replication), plus the tilt re-armed at **600 px** and at **250 px**,
i.e. `strafe_notilt` has no range control and drifts to ~456 px, so these two
separate *"the range value is the lever"* from *"the tilt mechanism is the
cost"*.

**Pre-registered prediction (written before the battles):** if the range value
drives the win, `tilt_600` should beat `strafe_notilt`; if the tilt mechanism
itself is the cost, both tilt arms should lose to `strafe_notilt`. **Both halves
turned out wrong**, and that is the useful part:

| arm | target / emergent range | dmg/run | wins/run | round wins | win rate | incoming hit rate | dmg taken/run | mean distance |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| `tfil` (SHIPPED) | none | 114.1 | 1.18 | 53/135 | 39.3% | 17.63% | 196.5 | 394 px |
| `strafe_325` | 325 | 111.8 | **1.76** | **79/135** | **58.5%** | 12.52% | 144.2 | 434 px |
| `strafe_notilt` | none (drifts) | 101.5 | 1.64 | 74/135 | 54.8% | 12.05% | 148.6 | 459 px |
| `tilt_600` | 600 | 102.3 | 1.58 | 71/135 | 52.6% | **11.67%** | 146.4 | **478 px** |
| `tilt_250` | 250 | 112.0 | 1.56 | 70/135 | 51.9% | 13.71% | 162.2 | 415 px |

Paired vs `tfil`: `strafe_325` **+0.58 wins/run** [CI +0.27, +0.89], 11/12
decisive opponents, p = 0.0063; `strafe_notilt` **+0.47** [+0.22, +0.72], 10/11,
p = 0.0117; `tilt_600` +0.40 [+0.04, +0.76] (sign test 8/11 p = 0.23,
sign-flip p = 0.049); `tilt_250` +0.38 [+0.07, +0.69], 10/12, p = 0.0386. Damage
deltas are −2.1 … −12.5 (10% of the mean at worst) and never positive;
incoming-hit-rate deltas are −5.2 … −6.9 pp with **0/15 opponents favouring
`tfil`**.

**What this batch actually establishes**

1. **The strafe engine's win over the shipped `tfil` replicates.** Batch 1:
   +0.33 / +0.38 wins/run for the two strafe arms; Batch 2: +0.58 / +0.47 — the
   same direction, the same magnitude band, in an independent session, with
   **0/15 opponents** going the other way on incoming hit rate in either
   session. Pooled descriptively, the four strafe-family arms won **52–58%** of
   rounds in Batch 2 and **52–53%** in Batch 1, against `tfil`'s **39–41%**.
2. **The baseline is reproducible across sessions:** `tfil` won 40.7% of rounds
   in Batch 1 and 39.3% in Batch 2 (Δ 1.4 pp), and dealt 118.9 vs 114.1 dmg/run.
   The harness gives the same answer twice, which is why the win delta above is
   believable.
3. **The range TARGET is not the lever.** Re-arming the tilt at 600 px moved the
   achieved distance to 478 px and at 250 px to 415 px (vs 459 px with no
   steering), and **none of the three was separable from the others on wins**.
   The win comes from the engine, at any of these distances; the range value
   within 415–478 px does not decide it. This **overturns the Batch-1 reading**
   that "the tilt costs wins" (Batch 1: no-tilt > 325; Batch 2: 325 > no-tilt,
   both inside noise) — the honest statement is *the tilt's effect on wins is
   below this design's resolution (MDE ≈ 0.3–0.4 wins/run)*.
4. **`dmg/run` and `wins/run` remain different questions.** The arm that dealt
   the most damage in Batch 1 (`ring`, +31) won nothing extra; the arms that win
   in Batch 2 are not the high-damage ones (`strafe_325` 111.8 dmg/run vs
   `tilt_250` 112.0). The win is bought with **survival** — 50 fewer damage
   taken per run, −5…−7 pp incoming hit rate — not with output.

**DIRECT ANSWER after two batches (unchanged, now replicated).** The best 1v1
movement measured on this panel is the **strafe engine**: `TR_MOVEMENT=strafe`.
Its two Batch-1/2 configs are statistically tied with each other; if a config
must be named, `TR_MOVEMENT=strafe` at its shipped range (325 px) has the best
pooled round-win rate of the five arms in Batch 2 (58.5%) and ties `strafe_notilt`
in Batch 1, while `strafe_notilt` is the simpler arm (it has no range steering to
mis-tune). It is better than the shipped `tfil` by a margin that survives the
between-opponent spread: +0.33…+0.58 wins/run, 95% CIs excluding 0 in three of
four measurements, 9/9 + 10/11 + 11/12 decisive opponents in favour, MDE 0.29–0.40
vs observed 0.38–0.58. Rejecting "no change": `tfil`'s win share of 39–41% is
**not** the best movement we have measured.

### The analyzer's full report (verbatim)

### MEASURED: session

* commit `8efa627c05137d5a949d5a899c71fc55b5a1daf5`, frozen binary sha256 `005d010d8593…`
* 15 opponents × 5 arms × 3 runs × 3 rounds = 225 battles, conc=6
* arms file `arms_movement_b2.txt`, panel file `panel_movement.txt`
* reference arm: **`tfil`** — every delta below is (arm − tfil), opponent by opponent

* liveness: 0 run(s) excluded (225 total)

### MEASURED: per-opponent paired table (per arm)

#### `tfil` — shipped baseline, re-measured in this session (replication)  (paired on 15 opponents)

| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| DrussGT | dodger | 120.8→120.8 | +0.0 | 0.67→0.67 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 445→445 |
| Diamond | dodger | 55.9→55.9 | +0.0 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 457→457 |
| Dookious | dodger | 86.5→86.5 | +0.0 | 1.33→1.33 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 451→451 |
| GresSuffurd | dodger | 114.0→114.0 | +0.0 | 1.33→1.33 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 417→417 |
| CassiusClay | dodger | 85.3→85.3 | +0.0 | 0.67→0.67 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 388→388 |
| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.7→181.7 | +0.0 | 2.00→2.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 391→391 |
| TripHammer | pattern | 55.8→55.8 | +0.0 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 469→469 |
| Coriantumr | pattern | 100.9→100.9 | +0.0 | 1.67→1.67 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 444→444 |
| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 150.0→150.0 | +0.0 | 2.00→2.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 317→317 |
| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 115.1→115.1 | +0.0 | 1.67→1.67 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 419→419 |
| SpinBot | spinner | 302.0→302.0 | +0.0 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 316→316 |
| DiamondStealer | rammer | 140.1→140.1 | +0.0 | 1.00→1.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 236→236 |
| BlitzBat | brawler | 74.5→74.5 | +0.0 | 2.00→2.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 420→420 |
| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 65.6→65.6 | +0.0 | 0.33→0.33 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 377→377 |
| Ascendant | aggressive | 62.8→62.8 | +0.0 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 362→362 |

#### `strafe_notilt` — Batch-1 winner, replication  (paired on 15 opponents)

| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| DrussGT | dodger | 120.8→92.2 | -28.6 | 0.67→0.67 | +0.00 | -44.7 | -4.02 | 445→523 |
| Diamond | dodger | 55.9→63.5 | +7.6 | 0.00→0.33 | +0.33 | -43.4 | -7.28 | 457→533 |
| Dookious | dodger | 86.5→88.5 | +2.1 | 1.33→1.33 | +0.00 | -31.1 | -3.65 | 451→486 |
| GresSuffurd | dodger | 114.0→115.8 | +1.8 | 1.33→2.33 | +1.00 | -79.2 | -5.44 | 417→470 |
| CassiusClay | dodger | 85.3→91.2 | +5.9 | 0.67→1.33 | +0.67 | -43.8 | -5.85 | 388→390 |
| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.7→131.3 | -50.4 | 2.00→2.67 | +0.67 | -3.1 | -7.61 | 391→444 |
| TripHammer | pattern | 55.8→65.7 | +9.9 | 0.00→0.67 | +0.67 | -39.0 | -4.46 | 469→553 |
| Coriantumr | pattern | 100.9→60.5 | -40.4 | 1.67→1.33 | -0.33 | -16.9 | -1.32 | 444→572 |
| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 150.0→166.5 | +16.4 | 2.00→2.67 | +0.67 | -42.3 | +0.54 | 317→327 |
| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 115.1→109.8 | -5.3 | 1.67→2.67 | +1.00 | -79.0 | -8.87 | 419→556 |
| SpinBot | spinner | 302.0→259.5 | -42.5 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | -48.0 | -23.48 | 316→406 |
| DiamondStealer | rammer | 140.1→117.9 | -22.2 | 1.00→1.00 | +0.00 | -29.9 | -3.78 | 236→260 |
| BlitzBat | brawler | 74.5→43.3 | -31.2 | 2.00→2.33 | +0.33 | -94.9 | -9.35 | 420→571 |
| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 65.6→49.7 | -15.9 | 0.33→1.33 | +1.00 | -73.3 | -7.89 | 377→414 |
| Ascendant | aggressive | 62.8→67.8 | +5.0 | 0.00→1.00 | +1.00 | -49.5 | -10.67 | 362→384 |

#### `strafe_325` — strafe default (range 325), replication  (paired on 15 opponents)

| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| DrussGT | dodger | 120.8→129.4 | +8.6 | 0.67→1.67 | +1.00 | -23.7 | -2.26 | 445→477 |
| Diamond | dodger | 55.9→58.0 | +2.1 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | -47.9 | -5.92 | 457→495 |
| Dookious | dodger | 86.5→115.7 | +29.2 | 1.33→1.67 | +0.33 | -53.2 | -4.12 | 451→464 |
| GresSuffurd | dodger | 114.0→112.3 | -1.7 | 1.33→2.67 | +1.33 | -94.9 | -8.82 | 417→461 |
| CassiusClay | dodger | 85.3→95.2 | +9.9 | 0.67→2.33 | +1.67 | -103.7 | -8.41 | 388→366 |
| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.7→162.2 | -19.4 | 2.00→2.67 | +0.67 | +2.2 | -4.64 | 391→442 |
| TripHammer | pattern | 55.8→55.0 | -0.8 | 0.00→0.67 | +0.67 | -50.5 | -5.25 | 469→485 |
| Coriantumr | pattern | 100.9→87.7 | -13.2 | 1.67→1.33 | -0.33 | -3.8 | -0.71 | 444→460 |
| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 150.0→138.6 | -11.5 | 2.00→3.00 | +1.00 | -64.0 | -4.78 | 317→383 |
| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 115.1→122.4 | +7.3 | 1.67→2.67 | +1.00 | -124.2 | -11.23 | 419→514 |
| SpinBot | spinner | 302.0→261.8 | -40.2 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | -32.0 | -17.27 | 316→411 |
| DiamondStealer | rammer | 140.1→149.2 | +9.2 | 1.00→1.33 | +0.33 | -20.1 | -2.23 | 236→266 |
| BlitzBat | brawler | 74.5→50.1 | -24.5 | 2.00→2.33 | +0.33 | -103.2 | -8.93 | 420→519 |
| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 65.6→56.8 | -8.8 | 0.33→0.33 | +0.00 | -35.7 | -3.96 | 377→395 |
| Ascendant | aggressive | 62.8→82.3 | +19.6 | 0.00→0.67 | +0.67 | -30.2 | -8.29 | 362→374 |

#### `tilt_600` — tilt ON, target 600 (farther than the emergent 456)  (paired on 15 opponents)

| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| DrussGT | dodger | 120.8→110.5 | -10.2 | 0.67→1.00 | +0.33 | -40.5 | -3.48 | 445→554 |
| Diamond | dodger | 55.9→63.9 | +8.0 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | -97.2 | -11.33 | 457→574 |
| Dookious | dodger | 86.5→83.4 | -3.0 | 1.33→1.00 | -0.33 | +6.7 | +0.01 | 451→498 |
| GresSuffurd | dodger | 114.0→114.8 | +0.8 | 1.33→3.00 | +1.67 | -102.3 | -8.16 | 417→475 |
| CassiusClay | dodger | 85.3→62.1 | -23.2 | 0.67→0.67 | +0.00 | -46.4 | -5.24 | 388→449 |
| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.7→124.3 | -57.4 | 2.00→2.00 | +0.00 | +25.0 | -5.38 | 391→467 |
| TripHammer | pattern | 55.8→52.6 | -3.2 | 0.00→1.33 | +1.33 | -54.1 | -7.01 | 469→552 |
| Coriantumr | pattern | 100.9→63.1 | -37.8 | 1.67→1.33 | -0.33 | +4.3 | -1.08 | 444→557 |
| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 150.0→147.1 | -2.9 | 2.00→1.67 | -0.33 | -42.1 | -2.06 | 317→373 |
| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 115.1→95.0 | -20.1 | 1.67→2.00 | +0.33 | -98.9 | -9.05 | 419→572 |
| SpinBot | spinner | 302.0→250.5 | -51.5 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | -32.0 | -18.70 | 316→444 |
| DiamondStealer | rammer | 140.1→159.9 | +19.9 | 1.00→1.67 | +0.67 | -53.3 | -1.92 | 236→274 |
| BlitzBat | brawler | 74.5→41.0 | -33.5 | 2.00→3.00 | +1.00 | -91.0 | -11.09 | 420→585 |
| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 65.6→75.4 | +9.8 | 0.33→0.67 | +0.33 | -45.0 | -7.18 | 377→408 |
| Ascendant | aggressive | 62.8→90.6 | +27.8 | 0.00→1.33 | +1.33 | -85.0 | -12.15 | 362→387 |

#### `tilt_250` — tilt ON, target 250 (much nearer than the emergent 456)  (paired on 15 opponents)

| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| DrussGT | dodger | 120.8→108.7 | -12.1 | 0.67→1.00 | +0.33 | -15.7 | -2.25 | 445→470 |
| Diamond | dodger | 55.9→97.2 | +41.3 | 0.00→1.00 | +1.00 | -100.7 | -7.74 | 457→482 |
| Dookious | dodger | 86.5→105.0 | +18.6 | 1.33→2.00 | +0.67 | -39.4 | -2.97 | 451→460 |
| GresSuffurd | dodger | 114.0→145.2 | +31.2 | 1.33→2.67 | +1.33 | -89.4 | -6.57 | 417→409 |
| CassiusClay | dodger | 85.3→103.1 | +17.8 | 0.67→1.00 | +0.33 | -30.2 | -3.63 | 388→367 |
| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.7→142.8 | -38.8 | 2.00→2.33 | +0.33 | +36.3 | -4.18 | 391→436 |
| TripHammer | pattern | 55.8→53.4 | -2.3 | 0.00→0.33 | +0.33 | -20.3 | -2.44 | 469→467 |
| Coriantumr | pattern | 100.9→75.1 | -25.8 | 1.67→1.33 | -0.33 | +5.1 | -1.04 | 444→436 |
| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 150.0→157.0 | +7.0 | 2.00→1.33 | -0.67 | +42.9 | +1.38 | 317→297 |
| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 115.1→130.6 | +15.5 | 1.67→3.00 | +1.33 | -123.6 | -10.75 | 419→454 |
| SpinBot | spinner | 302.0→258.0 | -44.0 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | -32.0 | -18.91 | 316→432 |
| DiamondStealer | rammer | 140.1→143.7 | +3.6 | 1.00→1.00 | +0.00 | -12.7 | -1.10 | 236→260 |
| BlitzBat | brawler | 74.5→51.2 | -23.3 | 2.00→2.67 | +0.67 | -94.4 | -7.50 | 420→502 |
| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 65.6→57.3 | -8.3 | 0.33→0.67 | +0.33 | -23.5 | -5.03 | 377→396 |
| Ascendant | aggressive | 62.8→51.1 | -11.7 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | -17.3 | -4.93 | 362→364 |

### MEASURED: pooled dashboard (all valid runs, NOT the verdict)

| arm | runs | dmg/run | dmg taken/run | wins/run | round wins | win rate | incoming hit rate | mean distance |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| `tfil` | 45 | 114.1 | 196.5 | 1.18 | 53/135 | 39.3% | 17.63% | 394 |
| `strafe_notilt` | 45 | 101.5 | 148.6 | 1.64 | 74/135 | 54.8% | 12.05% | 459 |
| `strafe_325` | 45 | 111.8 | 144.2 | 1.76 | 79/135 | 58.5% | 12.52% | 434 |
| `tilt_600` | 45 | 102.3 | 146.4 | 1.58 | 71/135 | 52.6% | 11.67% | 478 |
| `tilt_250` | 45 | 112.0 | 162.2 | 1.56 | 70/135 | 51.9% | 13.71% | 415 |

### MEASURED: cross-opponent aggregation (the verdict layer)

Deltas are per-opponent (arm − reference). `spread` is the SD of those deltas ACROSS opponents; `SE` = spread/√n; `95% CI` = mean ± t·SE. Sign test = how many opponents the arm wins (ties dropped), exact binomial; sign-flip = permutation test on the mean of the deltas.

| arm | metric | mean Δ | spread (SD) | SE | 95% CI | sign test (wins/n) | p(sign) | p(sign-flip) | Wilcoxon p | MDE |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| `strafe_notilt` | damage | -12.52 | 21.86 | 5.64 | [-24.62, -0.41] | 7/15 | 1 | 0.04456 (exact 2^15) | 0.1323 | 15.81 |
| `strafe_notilt` | wins | +0.47 | 0.45 | 0.12 | [+0.22, +0.72] | 10/11 | 0.01172 | 0.003906 (exact 2^15) | 0.007526 | 0.33 |
| `strafe_notilt` | damage_taken | -47.88 | 24.70 | 6.38 | [-61.55, -34.20] | 0/15 | 6.104e-05 | 6.104e-05 (exact 2^15) | 0.0007265 | 17.86 |
| `strafe_notilt` | hit_rate | -6.87 | 5.51 | 1.42 | [-9.93, -3.82] | 1/15 | 0.0009766 | 0.0001221 (exact 2^15) | 0.0008919 | 3.99 |
| `strafe_notilt` | dist | +65.39 | 46.33 | 11.96 | [+39.73, +91.05] | 15/15 | 6.104e-05 | 6.104e-05 (exact 2^15) | 0.0007265 | 33.52 |
| `strafe_325` | damage | -2.28 | 17.82 | 4.60 | [-12.15, +7.59] | 7/15 | 1 | 0.6319 (exact 2^15) | 0.712 | 12.89 |
| `strafe_325` | wins | +0.58 | 0.56 | 0.14 | [+0.27, +0.89] | 11/12 | 0.006348 | 0.002441 (exact 2^15) | 0.00525 | 0.40 |
| `strafe_325` | damage_taken | -52.32 | 38.49 | 9.94 | [-73.64, -31.01] | 1/15 | 0.0009766 | 0.0001221 (exact 2^15) | 0.0008919 | 27.84 |
| `strafe_325` | hit_rate | -6.45 | 4.20 | 1.08 | [-8.78, -4.13] | 0/15 | 6.104e-05 | 6.104e-05 (exact 2^15) | 0.0007265 | 3.04 |
| `strafe_325` | dist | +40.15 | 35.18 | 9.08 | [+20.67, +59.64] | 14/15 | 0.0009766 | 0.0004272 (exact 2^15) | 0.002377 | 25.45 |
| `tilt_600` | damage | -11.78 | 25.11 | 6.48 | [-25.68, +2.13] | 5/15 | 0.3018 | 0.09137 (exact 2^15) | 0.1055 | 18.16 |
| `tilt_600` | wins | +0.40 | 0.66 | 0.17 | [+0.04, +0.76] | 8/11 | 0.2266 | 0.04883 (exact 2^15) | 0.04491 | 0.48 |
| `tilt_600` | damage_taken | -50.12 | 40.17 | 10.37 | [-72.36, -27.87] | 3/15 | 0.03516 | 0.0005493 (exact 2^15) | 0.002377 | 29.06 |
| `tilt_600` | hit_rate | -6.92 | 5.05 | 1.30 | [-9.72, -4.12] | 1/15 | 0.0009766 | 0.0001221 (exact 2^15) | 0.0008919 | 3.65 |
| `tilt_600` | dist | +83.94 | 44.45 | 11.48 | [+59.32, +108.55] | 15/15 | 6.104e-05 | 6.104e-05 (exact 2^15) | 0.0007265 | 32.15 |
| `tilt_250` | damage | -2.09 | 24.78 | 6.40 | [-15.82, +11.63] | 7/15 | 1 | 0.7453 (exact 2^15) | 0.7983 | 17.92 |
| `tilt_250` | wins | +0.38 | 0.56 | 0.14 | [+0.07, +0.69] | 10/12 | 0.03857 | 0.03125 (exact 2^15) | 0.05415 | 0.41 |
| `tilt_250` | damage_taken | -34.32 | 48.54 | 12.53 | [-61.21, -7.44] | 3/15 | 0.03516 | 0.01593 (exact 2^15) | 0.02877 | 35.11 |
| `tilt_250` | hit_rate | -5.18 | 4.89 | 1.26 | [-7.89, -2.47] | 1/15 | 0.0009766 | 0.0002441 (exact 2^15) | 0.001332 | 3.54 |
| `tilt_250` | dist | +21.42 | 37.60 | 9.71 | [+0.60, +42.24] | 10/15 | 0.3018 | 0.03253 (exact 2^15) | 0.04377 | 27.20 |

#### By inferred style (explanation only, never the verdict)

| arm | style | n | mean Δdmg | mean Δwins | mean Δhit rate (pp) |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| `strafe_notilt` | aggressive | 2 | -5.5 | +1.00 | -9.28 |
| `strafe_notilt` | brawler | 1 | -31.2 | +0.33 | -9.35 |
| `strafe_notilt` | cornercamper | 1 | -5.3 | +1.00 | -8.87 |
| `strafe_notilt` | dodger | 5 | -2.2 | +0.40 | -5.25 |
| `strafe_notilt` | pattern | 3 | -27.0 | +0.33 | -4.46 |
| `strafe_notilt` | rammer | 1 | -22.2 | +0.00 | -3.78 |
| `strafe_notilt` | spinner | 1 | -42.5 | +0.00 | -23.48 |
| `strafe_notilt` | wallfollower | 1 | +16.4 | +0.67 | +0.54 |
| `strafe_325` | aggressive | 2 | +5.4 | +0.33 | -6.12 |
| `strafe_325` | brawler | 1 | -24.5 | +0.33 | -8.93 |
| `strafe_325` | cornercamper | 1 | +7.3 | +1.00 | -11.23 |
| `strafe_325` | dodger | 5 | +9.6 | +0.87 | -5.91 |
| `strafe_325` | pattern | 3 | -11.1 | +0.33 | -3.53 |
| `strafe_325` | rammer | 1 | +9.2 | +0.33 | -2.23 |
| `strafe_325` | spinner | 1 | -40.2 | +0.00 | -17.27 |
| `strafe_325` | wallfollower | 1 | -11.5 | +1.00 | -4.78 |
| `tilt_600` | aggressive | 2 | +18.8 | +0.83 | -9.67 |
| `tilt_600` | brawler | 1 | -33.5 | +1.00 | -11.09 |
| `tilt_600` | cornercamper | 1 | -20.1 | +0.33 | -9.05 |
| `tilt_600` | dodger | 5 | -5.5 | +0.33 | -5.64 |
| `tilt_600` | pattern | 3 | -32.8 | +0.33 | -4.49 |
| `tilt_600` | rammer | 1 | +19.9 | +0.67 | -1.92 |
| `tilt_600` | spinner | 1 | -51.5 | +0.00 | -18.70 |
| `tilt_600` | wallfollower | 1 | -2.9 | -0.33 | -2.06 |
| `tilt_250` | aggressive | 2 | -10.0 | +0.17 | -4.98 |
| `tilt_250` | brawler | 1 | -23.3 | +0.67 | -7.50 |
| `tilt_250` | cornercamper | 1 | +15.5 | +1.33 | -10.75 |
| `tilt_250` | dodger | 5 | +19.4 | +0.73 | -4.63 |
| `tilt_250` | pattern | 3 | -22.3 | +0.11 | -2.55 |
| `tilt_250` | rammer | 1 | +3.6 | +0.00 | -1.10 |
| `tilt_250` | spinner | 1 | -44.0 | +0.00 | -18.91 |
| `tilt_250` | wallfollower | 1 | +7.0 | -0.67 | +1.38 |

#### The pre-registered verdict table, as printed by the analyzer

PRIMARY metrics are dmg/run and wins/run; hit rate is never the verdict. The pre-registered rule says an arm is BETTER when one primary metric is UP at sign-test p<0.05 `while the other does not go down`. That phrase has two readings and BOTH are printed:

* **strict** — the other metric's mean delta is not negative at all (`Δ >= 0`). Nothing can be BETTER while it costs *any* mean damage.
* **substantive** — the other metric's delta is not *detectably* down: the sign test is not significant **and** the delta is smaller than that metric's MDE (the pre-registered rule 3 says an effect under the MDE is not detectable, so it cannot count as a loss).

| rank | arm | Δwins/run | Δdmg/run | sign test wins | sign test dmg | verdict (strict) | verdict (substantive) |
|---:|---|---:|---:|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | `strafe_325` | +0.58 | -2.3 | 11/12 p=0.006348 | 7/15 p=1 | **not distinguishable** | **BETTER** |
| 2 | `strafe_notilt` | +0.47 | -12.5 | 10/11 p=0.01172 | 7/15 p=1 | **not distinguishable** | **BETTER** |
| 3 | `tilt_600` | +0.40 | -11.8 | 8/11 p=0.2266 | 5/15 p=0.3018 | **not distinguishable** | **not distinguishable** |
| 4 | `tilt_250` | +0.38 | -2.1 | 10/12 p=0.03857 | 7/15 p=1 | **not distinguishable** | **BETTER** |

Reference `tfil`: 114.1 dmg/run, 1.18 wins/run, 17.63% incoming, 394 px.

Highest wins delta: `strafe_325` (+0.58 wins/run, -2.3 dmg/run) — strict: **not distinguishable**, substantive: **BETTER**.

---

## 5. What to try next (rewritten AFTER Batches 1–2 — these are recommendations, not results)

Ranked by value per battle, given what the two batches measured:

1. **The engine is the lever; the range knob is not.** Both batches put the
   strafe arms 12–19 pp above `tfil` on round-win rate while three different
   range targets (none/250/600, achieved 415–478 px) made no separable
   difference. So the next batch should attack the **strafe picker itself**, not
   the range: `TR_STRAFE_DWELL_MIN/MAX` (reversal frequency), `TR_STRAFE_BAND` +
   `TR_STRAFE_SPREAD` (how far the picker hedges), `TR_STRAFE_REACH` (line
   length), `TR_STRAFE_WALL_BIAS`, `TR_STRAFE_WALL_MARGIN`. 3–4 arms, same
   panel, **one knob family per batch**, and look for a plateau, not a peak.
2. **The verdict metric for movement is round wins; the mechanism metric is
   incoming hit rate.** The winner took ~1/3 fewer hits at the same damage
   output, and round wins in this harness are survival wins. So screen
   *mechanism* ideas on incoming hit rate (±1 pp is detectable here: MDE 1.3–4.0
   pp) and only then spend a full panel batch confirming the win effect.
3. **Do not chase damage.** The one arm that gained damage (`ring`, +31/run,
   p = 0.007) won *fewer* nominal rounds and took +25 damage/run. A movement arm
   that raises damage but lowers survival is a loss in disguise — the mirror of
   the six inverted hit-rate verdicts this project has already paid for.
4. **`strafe_notilt` is the recommendation to ship-test**, if a shipping
   decision is ever taken: it has the same win effect as the range-steered
   config without an extra tuning surface. Shipping is a separate decision —
   this campaign does not touch a shipped default.
5. **Then the gun** (the owner's next stage, per the mandate): same harness, same
   panel or a gun-specific one, same paired-with-sign-test statistics. Two facts
   for the gun job: (a) round wins here are survival wins, so the gun's job is
   to *kill*, not merely to out-damage; (b) the panel is 15 opponents wide and
   its strong dodgers (Diamond 39.5, CassiusClay 73.4, TripHammer 59.5 dmg/run
   for `tfil`) are exactly the ones a DrussGT-only gun claim will fail against.
6. **Melee is a different game** (j116's finding): it needs its own panel and its
   own ledger section; the 1v1 panel's verdicts do not transfer.

## 6. What would make us stop

* **The movement stage has already produced its first winner** (`TR_MOVEMENT=strafe`),
  and by rule 2 with the substantive reading it beats the shipped default with a
  margin that survives the between-opponent spread, replicated in two
  independent sessions. A later job may therefore either (a) keep hunting
  *within* the strafe picker (item 1 above) and stop as soon as two consecutive
  batches fail to improve on it beyond the MDE, or (b) declare it the movement
  answer and move to the gun. **Both are successful outcomes.**
* **Stop the movement stage entirely** once a batch's best arm cannot beat
  `strafe` beyond the MDE, or when a movement arm's win gain is bought with a
  detectable damage or survival loss. At that point *"this is the measured
  optimum of this design space"* is the conclusion, not a failure.
* **Stop a single batch early** only for a contract violation (arena not free,
  liveness FAIL, non-zero exit rate) — never because the numbers look boring.

## 7. How to run a batch (exact commands)

```sh
# 1. wait for the arena (this job may not be the only one fighting)
tools/ab/tournament_run.sh \
    --arms    tools/ab/arms_movement_b1.txt \
    --panel   tools/ab/panel_movement.txt \
    --runs 3 --rounds 3 --conc 6 --wait-arena 45 \
    --reference tfil \
    --outdir /tmp/ab/j118_b1

# Batch 2 (the range axis on the winning engine) was the same command with
#   --arms tools/ab/arms_movement_b2.txt --outdir /tmp/ab/j118_b2

# 2. the paired per-opponent table, sign tests, MDE and the pre-registered verdict
python3 tools/ab/tournament_analyze.py /tmp/ab/j118_b1 --reference tfil
```

`--reference` may be ANY arm of the session: re-analyzing `/tmp/ab/j118_b1
--reference strafe_325` is a free pairwise comparison with no battles (it is how
the "the two strafe configs are not separable" claim was checked: Δwins +0.04,
p = 0.75, MDE 0.33).

## 8. Session log (outdirs are in `/tmp` and are NOT committed)

| session | commit | battles | arms | verdict |
|---|---|---:|---|---|
| `/tmp/ab/j118_b1` | `1984a78` | 225 (0 invalid) | tfil, strafe_notilt, strafe_325, ring, ring_notemp | strafe_notilt beats tfil on wins (+0.38, 9/9, p=0.0039) |
| `/tmp/ab/j118_b2` | `8efa627` | 225 (0 invalid) | tfil, strafe_notilt, strafe_325, tilt_600, tilt_250 | all four strafe arms beat tfil on wins (+0.38…+0.58); the range target decides nothing |

Both sessions can be re-analyzed offline at any time (no arena needed) as long as
`/tmp/ab/j118_b*` still exists; after a reboot only this ledger's tables remain,
which is why every number is inlined above.

The runner writes `<outdir>/session.json` (commit sha, binary sha256, arms,
panel) so any later job can re-analyze an old session offline, with no arena.