Files
SirRoboGarage/common_libs/guns/decay_gf.nim
T
SirStone f58d65d2e8 TMComposites gate: per-gun confidence faithful for 3 guns; no pair composes
Adds a per-sample intrinsic-confidence field (GunPrediction.confidence,
threaded through FeedbackEvent/VirtualBullet, populated by Pattern, DecayGF,
KNN, GuessFactor, Tsetlin, TMHorizon) and an offline recorder + analyzer that
reproduce the paper's Figure 2 per gun and its Eq-8 composite.

Measured on 3 held-out tr-bridge DrussGT battles (33k ticks, ~133k samples/gun):
- FAITHFUL: DecayGF (rho +0.133), KNN (+0.090), Pattern (+0.064, weak).
- GuessFactor is ANTI-faithful (rho -0.067); Tsetlin c_max is useless (0.001).
- No pair of guns specialises complementarily: the same gun dominates both
  high-confidence slices in every pair.
- Eq-8 alpha-normalised confidence-weighted composite: 18.41% vs Pattern
  20.45% (McNemar p=3.1e-126). Faithful-only variant 18.68%, still loses.
  Shuffle control passes weakly (composite > shuffle, p=4e-14) so ~0.7pp of
  competence is real but ~2pp short. Offline veto: design is dead.

See docs/tmcomposites_gate.md.
2026-09-25 22:04:39 +02:00

153 lines
5.1 KiB
Nim

## Recency-weighted GF gun: exponential decay on histogram bins.
## decay=0.998/tick gives ~350-tick half-life — adapts to mid-battle strategy shifts.
## Everything else identical to guess_factor.nim, including exact (fireTick,
## powerBin)-keyed wave pairing (see guess_factor.nim for the measured FIFO defect).
import std/math
import gun_harness/gun_interface
import gun_harness/virtual_bullets as vb # PowerBins
import guns/lead_forecast
const
GFBins = 31
GFPrior = 0.1
DecayRate = 0.998 # ponytail: single global decay, tune if adaptation too slow/fast
DecayWaveRingSlots = 1024 # (fireTick, powerBin) ring; see guess_factor.nim
type
DWave = object
fireX, fireY: float
fireBearing: float
fireTick: int
bin: int
alive: bool
DecayGFGun* = object
bins: array[GFBins, float]
# Exact (fireTick, powerBin)-keyed ring; a resolved bullet is matched to the
# wave it actually fired, no matter how many other shots resolved first.
# Heap-backed (seq): see guess_factor.nim.
waves: seq[DWave]
waveStoredTick: array[len(vb.PowerBins), int] # last tick a wave was queued for this bin
vt: VelocityTracker # enemy velocity history (base selection)
cachedTick: int # last tick bins were decayed
wavePushes*: int
waveStarved*: int
waveResolved*: int
waveMispaired*: int # ring-slot collision (impossible by design)
debugGraphics*: bool
proc initDecayGFGun*(): DecayGFGun =
result.cachedTick = -1
result.debugGraphics = false
result.waves = newSeq[DWave](DecayWaveRingSlots)
for b in 0..<len(vb.PowerBins):
result.waveStoredTick[b] = -1
let center = (GFBins - 1) div 2
for i in 0..<GFBins:
let d = abs(i - center)
result.bins[i] = GFPrior + 0.5 / float(1 + d)
proc gfToIndex(gf: float): int {.inline.} =
clamp(int(round((gf + 1.0) * 0.5 * float(GFBins - 1))), 0, GFBins - 1)
proc indexToGF(idx: int): float {.inline.} =
float(idx) / float(GFBins - 1) * 2.0 - 1.0
proc peakBin*(g: DecayGFGun): int =
var best = 0
for i in 1..<GFBins:
if g.bins[i] > g.bins[best]:
best = i
best
proc binForSpeed(spd: float): int {.inline.} =
for i in 0..<len(vb.PowerBins):
if abs(spd - bulletSpeed(vb.PowerBins[i])) < 1e-6:
return i
-1
proc binForPower(power: float): int {.inline.} =
for i in 0..<len(vb.PowerBins):
if abs(power - vb.PowerBins[i]) < 1e-6:
return i
-1
proc waveSlot(fireTick, binIdx: int): int {.inline.} =
((fireTick * len(vb.PowerBins)) + binIdx) mod DecayWaveRingSlots
proc predict*(g: var DecayGFGun, state: WorldState, bulletSpeed: float): GunPrediction =
if bulletSpeed <= 0.0:
return GunPrediction(x: state.enemyX, y: state.enemyY)
let mea = arcsin(clamp(8.0 / bulletSpeed, -1.0, 1.0))
if state.tick != g.cachedTick:
g.cachedTick = state.tick
g.vt.observe(state)
# Decay all bins once per tick
for i in 0..<GFBins:
g.bins[i] *= DecayRate
# Base forecast: the GF learns the residual against a self-consistent base
# prediction (see lead_forecast.nim).
let f = forecastRadialBlend(state, bulletSpeed, g.vt)
# Queue at most one wave per (tick, power bin); the fire site's extra predict()
# call for the selected bin lands on the same tick and reuses the queued wave.
let binIdx = binForSpeed(bulletSpeed)
if binIdx >= 0 and g.waveStoredTick[binIdx] != state.tick:
let slot = waveSlot(state.tick, binIdx)
g.waves[slot] = DWave(fireX: state.selfX, fireY: state.selfY,
fireBearing: f.bearing, fireTick: state.tick,
bin: binIdx, alive: true)
g.waveStoredTick[binIdx] = state.tick
inc g.wavePushes
let peak = g.peakBin()
let peakGF = indexToGF(peak)
let gfAngle = f.bearing + peakGF * mea
let px = state.selfX + cos(gfAngle) * f.dist
let py = state.selfY + sin(gfAngle) * f.dist
GunPrediction(
x: clamp(px, BotRadius, state.arenaWidth - BotRadius),
y: clamp(py, BotRadius, state.arenaHeight - BotRadius),
confidence: g.bins[peak], # class-sum max over GF bins (see guess_factor.nim)
)
proc onResult*(g: var DecayGFGun, e: FeedbackEvent) =
let binIdx =
if e.powerBin >= 0 and e.powerBin < len(vb.PowerBins): e.powerBin
else: binForPower(e.bulletPower)
if binIdx < 0: return
let slot = waveSlot(e.fireTick, binIdx)
var w = addr g.waves[slot]
if not w.alive:
inc g.waveStarved
return
if w.fireTick != e.fireTick:
inc g.waveMispaired
inc g.waveStarved
return
inc g.waveResolved
let speed = bulletSpeed(e.bulletPower)
let mea = arcsin(clamp(8.0 / speed, -1.0, 1.0))
let actualDx = e.actualX - w.fireX
let actualDy = e.actualY - w.fireY
let actualBearing = arctan2(actualDy, actualDx)
var bearingDelta = actualBearing - w.fireBearing
while bearingDelta > PI: bearingDelta -= 2.0*PI
while bearingDelta < -PI: bearingDelta += 2.0*PI
let gf = if mea > 1e-10: clamp(bearingDelta / mea, -1.0, 1.0) else: 0.0
let centerIdx = gfToIndex(gf)
for i in 0..<GFBins:
let d = abs(i - centerIdx)
g.bins[i] += 1.0 / float(1 + d)
w.alive = false