f58d65d2e8
Adds a per-sample intrinsic-confidence field (GunPrediction.confidence, threaded through FeedbackEvent/VirtualBullet, populated by Pattern, DecayGF, KNN, GuessFactor, Tsetlin, TMHorizon) and an offline recorder + analyzer that reproduce the paper's Figure 2 per gun and its Eq-8 composite. Measured on 3 held-out tr-bridge DrussGT battles (33k ticks, ~133k samples/gun): - FAITHFUL: DecayGF (rho +0.133), KNN (+0.090), Pattern (+0.064, weak). - GuessFactor is ANTI-faithful (rho -0.067); Tsetlin c_max is useless (0.001). - No pair of guns specialises complementarily: the same gun dominates both high-confidence slices in every pair. - Eq-8 alpha-normalised confidence-weighted composite: 18.41% vs Pattern 20.45% (McNemar p=3.1e-126). Faithful-only variant 18.68%, still loses. Shuffle control passes weakly (composite > shuffle, p=4e-14) so ~0.7pp of competence is real but ~2pp short. Offline veto: design is dead. See docs/tmcomposites_gate.md.
344 lines
13 KiB
Nim
344 lines
13 KiB
Nim
## KNN gun: K-nearest-neighbor statistical targeting inspired by DrussGT's DC gun.
|
|
## Builds a feature vector per scan, stores resolved GF outcomes, queries KNN at
|
|
## predict time and picks the GF with the highest Gaussian-weighted density.
|
|
## ponytail: linear scan O(n*k), cap at 2000 obs — KD-tree if perf matters at scale.
|
|
|
|
import std/[math]
|
|
import gun_harness/gun_interface
|
|
import gun_harness/virtual_bullets as vb # PowerBins
|
|
import guns/lead_forecast
|
|
|
|
const
|
|
MaxObs = 2000 # ring-buffer cap
|
|
KCap = 50 # hard ceiling on K
|
|
KernelW = 0.3 # Gaussian kernel width multiplier
|
|
DensityBins = 60 # scan resolution for peak-GF search
|
|
NFeat = 8 # feature vector length (see buildFeatures)
|
|
KNNWaveRingSlots = 1024 # exact (fireTick, powerBin) ring; see guess_factor.nim
|
|
|
|
type
|
|
Obs = object
|
|
feat: array[NFeat, float] # normalized feature vector
|
|
gf: float # observed GF at wave resolution
|
|
|
|
KNNWave = object
|
|
fireX, fireY: float
|
|
fireBearing: float
|
|
fireTick: int
|
|
bin: int
|
|
alive: bool
|
|
feat: array[NFeat, float]
|
|
|
|
KNNGun* = object
|
|
obs: seq[Obs]
|
|
obsHead: int # ring-buffer write index
|
|
# Exact (fireTick, powerBin)-keyed ring; a resolved bullet is matched to the
|
|
# wave it actually fired, no matter how many other shots resolved first.
|
|
# Heap-backed (seq): see guess_factor.nim.
|
|
waves: seq[KNNWave]
|
|
waveStoredTick: array[len(vb.PowerBins), int] # last tick a wave was queued for this bin
|
|
# per-tick cache
|
|
cachedTick: int
|
|
vt: VelocityTracker # enemy velocity history (base selection)
|
|
tickWave: KNNWave # wave template for the current tick (features computed once)
|
|
# rolling normalization ranges
|
|
featMin: array[NFeat, float]
|
|
featMax: array[NFeat, float]
|
|
# state for feature extraction
|
|
lastSpeed: float
|
|
lastDirection: float # +1 or -1
|
|
timeSinceDirChange: int
|
|
wavePushes*: int
|
|
waveStarved*: int
|
|
waveResolved*: int
|
|
waveMispaired*: int # ring-slot collision (impossible by design)
|
|
debugGraphics*: bool
|
|
|
|
proc initKNNGun*(): KNNGun =
|
|
result.cachedTick = -1
|
|
result.lastDirection = 1.0
|
|
result.debugGraphics = false
|
|
result.waves = newSeq[KNNWave](KNNWaveRingSlots)
|
|
for b in 0..<len(vb.PowerBins):
|
|
result.waveStoredTick[b] = -1
|
|
for i in 0..<NFeat:
|
|
result.featMin[i] = 1e18
|
|
result.featMax[i] = -1e18
|
|
# Energy (dim NFeat-1) stays on a FIXED [0,1] scale: a threshold behaviour is
|
|
# keyed to the target's ABSOLUTE energy, so min-max normalizing it against the
|
|
# observed range would smear the very boundary the feature exists to expose.
|
|
result.featMin[NFeat - 1] = 0.0
|
|
result.featMax[NFeat - 1] = 1.0
|
|
|
|
# ── helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
|
|
|
proc normFeat(g: KNNGun, raw: array[NFeat, float]): array[NFeat, float] =
|
|
for i in 0..<NFeat:
|
|
let span = g.featMax[i] - g.featMin[i]
|
|
result[i] = if span > 1e-9: (raw[i] - g.featMin[i]) / span else: 0.0
|
|
|
|
proc updateMinMax(g: var KNNGun, raw: array[NFeat, float]) =
|
|
for i in 0..<NFeat - 1:
|
|
if raw[i] < g.featMin[i]: g.featMin[i] = raw[i]
|
|
if raw[i] > g.featMax[i]: g.featMax[i] = raw[i]
|
|
|
|
proc buildFeatures(state: WorldState, lastSpeed, lastDir: float,
|
|
tsdc: int): array[NFeat, float] =
|
|
let dx = state.enemyX - state.selfX
|
|
let dy = state.enemyY - state.selfY
|
|
let dist = sqrt(dx*dx + dy*dy)
|
|
let arenaDiag = sqrt(state.arenaWidth*state.arenaWidth + state.arenaHeight*state.arenaHeight)
|
|
|
|
# bearing to enemy (0°=East, standard Tank Royale)
|
|
let bearing = arctan2(dy, dx)
|
|
# angle of enemy heading relative to bearing
|
|
let relHead = state.enemyHeading - bearing
|
|
let latVel = state.enemySpeed * sin(relHead)
|
|
let advVel = state.enemySpeed * (-cos(relHead))
|
|
let accel = state.enemySpeed - lastSpeed # signed delta
|
|
|
|
# wall distances: how far enemy can travel fwd/bwd before hitting wall
|
|
# approximate: project enemy heading to nearest wall in each axis
|
|
let ex = state.enemyX
|
|
let ey = state.enemyY
|
|
let eh = state.enemyHeading
|
|
# forward distances to each wall in heading direction
|
|
let fwdX = if cos(eh) > 0: (state.arenaWidth - ex) / max(abs(cos(eh)), 1e-9)
|
|
else: ex / max(abs(cos(eh)), 1e-9)
|
|
let fwdY = if sin(eh) > 0: (state.arenaHeight - ey) / max(abs(sin(eh)), 1e-9)
|
|
else: ey / max(abs(sin(eh)), 1e-9)
|
|
let fwdDist = min(fwdX, fwdY)
|
|
# backward = forward in opposite direction
|
|
let bwdX = if cos(eh) < 0: (state.arenaWidth - ex) / max(abs(cos(eh)), 1e-9)
|
|
else: ex / max(abs(cos(eh)), 1e-9)
|
|
let bwdY = if sin(eh) < 0: (state.arenaHeight - ey) / max(abs(sin(eh)), 1e-9)
|
|
else: ey / max(abs(sin(eh)), 1e-9)
|
|
let bwdDist = min(bwdX, bwdY)
|
|
|
|
result[0] = abs(latVel) / 8.0
|
|
result[1] = clamp(advVel / 8.0, -1.0, 1.0) * 0.5 + 0.5 # shift to [0,1]
|
|
result[2] = clamp(dist / arenaDiag, 0.0, 1.0)
|
|
result[3] = clamp(accel / 2.0, -1.0, 1.0) * 0.5 + 0.5
|
|
result[4] = clamp(float(tsdc) / 100.0, 0.0, 1.0)
|
|
result[5] = clamp(fwdDist / arenaDiag, 0.0, 1.0)
|
|
result[6] = clamp(bwdDist / arenaDiag, 0.0, 1.0)
|
|
# Enemy energy. The only feature that can separate behaviours that depend on
|
|
# the target's own remaining energy (e.g. an energy-threshold turner that
|
|
# changes movement below 30). Kept on a fixed [0,1] scale (see initKNNGun).
|
|
result[7] = clamp(state.enemyEnergy / 100.0, 0.0, 1.0)
|
|
|
|
proc euclidean(a, b: array[NFeat, float]): float {.inline.} =
|
|
for i in 0..<NFeat:
|
|
let d = a[i] - b[i]
|
|
result += d * d
|
|
result = sqrt(result)
|
|
|
|
proc binForSpeed(spd: float): int {.inline.} =
|
|
## Map a virtual-bullet speed back to its power-bin index. All four bin speeds
|
|
## are exactly representable floats; the epsilon is belt-and-braces only.
|
|
for i in 0..<len(vb.PowerBins):
|
|
if abs(spd - bulletSpeed(vb.PowerBins[i])) < 1e-6:
|
|
return i
|
|
-1
|
|
|
|
proc binForPower(power: float): int {.inline.} =
|
|
## Map a FeedbackEvent.bulletPower back to its power-bin index.
|
|
for i in 0..<len(vb.PowerBins):
|
|
if abs(power - vb.PowerBins[i]) < 1e-6:
|
|
return i
|
|
-1
|
|
|
|
proc waveSlot(fireTick, binIdx: int): int {.inline.} =
|
|
## Exact (fireTick, powerBin) key -> ring slot (same scheme as tsetlin.nim).
|
|
((fireTick * len(vb.PowerBins)) + binIdx) mod KNNWaveRingSlots
|
|
|
|
# ── Gun interface ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
|
|
|
proc predict*(g: var KNNGun, state: WorldState, bulletSpd: float): GunPrediction =
|
|
if bulletSpd <= 0.0:
|
|
return GunPrediction(x: state.enemyX, y: state.enemyY)
|
|
|
|
let dx = state.enemyX - state.selfX
|
|
let dy = state.enemyY - state.selfY
|
|
let bearing = arctan2(dy, dx)
|
|
let mea = arcsin(clamp(8.0 / bulletSpd, -1.0, 1.0))
|
|
|
|
# Track direction change — update state once per tick
|
|
if state.tick != g.cachedTick:
|
|
g.cachedTick = state.tick
|
|
g.vt.observe(state)
|
|
|
|
let relHead = state.enemyHeading - bearing
|
|
let latVel = state.enemySpeed * sin(relHead)
|
|
let newDir = if latVel >= 0: 1.0 else: -1.0
|
|
if newDir != g.lastDirection and abs(latVel) > 0.01:
|
|
g.timeSinceDirChange = 0
|
|
g.lastDirection = newDir
|
|
else:
|
|
inc g.timeSinceDirChange
|
|
|
|
# Compute the tick's feature vector ONCE, before lastSpeed is advanced, so
|
|
# every power bin fired this tick shares identical features. lastSpeed is
|
|
# only advanced here (once/tick), not once per bin.
|
|
let feat = buildFeatures(state, g.lastSpeed, g.lastDirection, g.timeSinceDirChange)
|
|
g.updateMinMax(feat)
|
|
g.tickWave = KNNWave(
|
|
fireX: state.selfX,
|
|
fireY: state.selfY,
|
|
fireBearing: bearing,
|
|
fireTick: state.tick,
|
|
feat: feat,
|
|
)
|
|
g.lastSpeed = state.enemySpeed
|
|
|
|
# Base forecast: the KNN learns the GF residual against a self-consistent base
|
|
# prediction (see lead_forecast.nim).
|
|
let f = forecastRadialBlend(state, bulletSpd, g.vt)
|
|
|
|
# Queue at most one wave per (tick, power bin). The fire site's extra predict()
|
|
# call for the selected bin lands on the same tick and reuses the queued wave.
|
|
let binIdx = binForSpeed(bulletSpd)
|
|
if binIdx >= 0 and g.waveStoredTick[binIdx] != state.tick:
|
|
# fireBearing is the base forecast bearing, which is per-power (flight time
|
|
# differs per bin); override the shared per-tick template here.
|
|
var w = g.tickWave
|
|
w.fireBearing = f.bearing
|
|
w.fireTick = state.tick
|
|
w.bin = binIdx
|
|
w.alive = true
|
|
g.waves[waveSlot(state.tick, binIdx)] = w
|
|
g.waveStoredTick[binIdx] = state.tick
|
|
inc g.wavePushes
|
|
|
|
# Cold start — no data yet: fall back to the self-consistent linear forecast.
|
|
if g.obs.len == 0:
|
|
return GunPrediction(
|
|
x: clamp(f.x, BotRadius, state.arenaWidth - BotRadius),
|
|
y: clamp(f.y, BotRadius, state.arenaHeight - BotRadius),
|
|
)
|
|
|
|
# Build query feature vector (use current state)
|
|
let queryRaw = buildFeatures(state, g.lastSpeed, g.lastDirection, g.timeSinceDirChange)
|
|
let query = g.normFeat(queryRaw)
|
|
|
|
# KNN: linear scan, pick k = max(5, min(sqrt(n), KCap))
|
|
# Fall back to head-on when not enough neighbors to be meaningful
|
|
let n = g.obs.len
|
|
if n < 5:
|
|
return GunPrediction(
|
|
x: clamp(f.x, BotRadius, state.arenaWidth - BotRadius),
|
|
y: clamp(f.y, BotRadius, state.arenaHeight - BotRadius),
|
|
)
|
|
let k = max(5, min(int(sqrt(float(n))), KCap))
|
|
|
|
# Partial selection: maintain k-best by tracking max distance in result set
|
|
# ponytail: O(n*k) insertion; fine for n<=2000, k<=50
|
|
var bestDists = newSeq[float](k)
|
|
var bestGFs = newSeq[float](k)
|
|
var worstIdx = 0
|
|
var filled = 0
|
|
|
|
for i in 0..<n:
|
|
let normFeat = g.normFeat(g.obs[i].feat)
|
|
let d = euclidean(query, normFeat)
|
|
if filled < k:
|
|
bestDists[filled] = d
|
|
bestGFs[filled] = g.obs[i].gf
|
|
inc filled
|
|
if filled == k:
|
|
# find worst
|
|
worstIdx = 0
|
|
for j in 1..<k:
|
|
if bestDists[j] > bestDists[worstIdx]: worstIdx = j
|
|
elif d < bestDists[worstIdx]:
|
|
bestDists[worstIdx] = d
|
|
bestGFs[worstIdx] = g.obs[i].gf
|
|
worstIdx = 0
|
|
for j in 1..<k:
|
|
if bestDists[j] > bestDists[worstIdx]: worstIdx = j
|
|
|
|
if filled == 0:
|
|
return GunPrediction(
|
|
x: clamp(f.x, BotRadius, state.arenaWidth - BotRadius),
|
|
y: clamp(f.y, BotRadius, state.arenaHeight - BotRadius),
|
|
)
|
|
|
|
# Inverse-distance weights, Gaussian (same as DrussGT getBearingGaussian)
|
|
var sumDist = 1e-30
|
|
for i in 0..<filled: sumDist += bestDists[i]
|
|
let invAvg = float(filled) / sumDist
|
|
|
|
# Find GF range of neighbors
|
|
var gfMin = bestGFs[0]
|
|
var gfMax = bestGFs[0]
|
|
for i in 1..<filled:
|
|
if bestGFs[i] < gfMin: gfMin = bestGFs[i]
|
|
if bestGFs[i] > gfMax: gfMax = bestGFs[i]
|
|
|
|
# Scan DensityBins points in [gfMin, gfMax] for peak density
|
|
let span = max(gfMax - gfMin, 1e-9)
|
|
let step = span / float(DensityBins - 1)
|
|
var bestGF = gfMin
|
|
var bestScore = -1.0
|
|
|
|
for b in 0..<DensityBins:
|
|
let testGF = gfMin + float(b) * step
|
|
var score = 0.0
|
|
for i in 0..<filled:
|
|
let w = exp(-0.5 * (bestDists[i] * invAvg) * (bestDists[i] * invAvg))
|
|
let dg = (testGF - bestGFs[i]) / max(span * KernelW, 1e-9)
|
|
score += w * exp(-0.5 * dg * dg)
|
|
if score > bestScore:
|
|
bestScore = score
|
|
bestGF = testGF
|
|
|
|
let aimAngle = f.bearing + clamp(bestGF, -1.0, 1.0) * mea
|
|
let px = state.selfX + cos(aimAngle) * f.dist
|
|
let py = state.selfY + sin(aimAngle) * f.dist
|
|
|
|
GunPrediction(
|
|
x: clamp(px, BotRadius, state.arenaWidth - BotRadius),
|
|
y: clamp(py, BotRadius, state.arenaHeight - BotRadius),
|
|
# TMComposites Eq 4 analogue: the KNN Gaussian density over GF candidates is
|
|
# the class distribution; bestScore is the class-sum max. Cold-start returns
|
|
# (no data / < 5 neighbours) leave the default 0.0 = no vote.
|
|
confidence: bestScore,
|
|
)
|
|
|
|
proc onResult*(g: var KNNGun, e: FeedbackEvent) =
|
|
let binIdx =
|
|
if e.powerBin >= 0 and e.powerBin < len(vb.PowerBins): e.powerBin
|
|
else: binForPower(e.bulletPower)
|
|
if binIdx < 0: return
|
|
let slot = waveSlot(e.fireTick, binIdx)
|
|
var w = addr g.waves[slot]
|
|
if not w.alive:
|
|
inc g.waveStarved
|
|
return
|
|
if w.fireTick != e.fireTick:
|
|
inc g.waveMispaired
|
|
inc g.waveStarved
|
|
return
|
|
inc g.waveResolved
|
|
|
|
let speed = bulletSpeed(e.bulletPower)
|
|
let mea = arcsin(clamp(8.0 / speed, -1.0, 1.0))
|
|
let ax = e.actualX - w.fireX
|
|
let ay = e.actualY - w.fireY
|
|
var delta = arctan2(ay, ax) - w.fireBearing
|
|
while delta > PI: delta -= 2.0 * PI
|
|
while delta < -PI: delta += 2.0 * PI
|
|
|
|
let gf = if mea > 1e-10: clamp(delta / mea, -1.0, 1.0) else: 0.0
|
|
|
|
g.updateMinMax(w.feat)
|
|
|
|
if g.obs.len < MaxObs:
|
|
g.obs.add Obs(feat: w.feat, gf: gf)
|
|
else:
|
|
# ring buffer
|
|
g.obs[g.obsHead] = Obs(feat: w.feat, gf: gf)
|
|
g.obsHead = (g.obsHead + 1) mod MaxObs
|
|
|
|
w.alive = false
|