SirStone
2c94dc221a
Added runtime-tunable ranking knobs to the selector, all defaulting to the shipped values so behaviour is byte-identical when unset: GUN_SELECTOR_WINDOW, MINOBS, TIE, FLOOR, POOL, RANK, SHRINK, SEED. rankScore supports mean, Wilson lower bound, UCB, Thompson and shrinkage. Also fixed hitRate's most-recent-N read for sub-WindowSize windows (windowHits). RESULT: NO candidate credibly beat the shipped config. 13 runs x 8 rounds vs DrussGT, 3612 shots, base 6.95% at 251 dmg/run; every candidate's per-run interval overlaps base, and the nominal 'winners' are <=0.6 SE apart on far fewer shots. Kept the shipped default. Valid outcome, recorded plainly. THE FINDING THAT MATTERS MORE: the virtual-bullet ranking is ANTI-correlated with real hit rate - Spearman ~ -0.37 for the shipped config. It is not merely weak, it is INVERTED. The guns with the highest VIRTUAL rates have among the lowest REAL rates: Tsetlin 12.9% virtual / 5.8% real, WallBounce 12.9 / 6.2, StopShot 12.6 / 6.1, AvgLead 12.3 / 7.0 - while Linear sits at 10.2 virtual / 10.7 real and KNN at 7.5 / 9.0. So what carries the selector is the floor/tie HEDGING, not the ranking: removing the floor drops us to 5.08% / 175 dmg. That also kills the 'exploration' hypothesis - every gun spawns virtual bullets every tick, so sampling is uniform and the bottleneck is SIGNAL QUALITY, not under-sampling. FINAL PER-GUN REAL HIT RATE vs DrussGT (13 runs, 3612 shots, overall 6.95%): Linear 10.7 | Circular 9.9 | KNN 9.0 | Pattern 8.6 | Accel 7.3 | AvgLead 7.0 GuessFactor 6.9 | DecayGF 6.4 | WallBounce 6.2 | StopShot 6.1 | Tsetlin 5.8 Displace 5.3 | HeadOn 5.2 Keep: Linear, Circular, KNN, Pattern, Accel, AvgLead. Marginal: GuessFactor, DecayGF, WallBounce, StopShot. Below overall: Tsetlin, Displace, HeadOn - but HeadOn must STAY as the floor fallback, since disabling the floor measurably hurt. CORRECTION TO A CLAIM I HAVE BEEN MAKING: the 12/12 offline==online acceptance is FLAKY. It fails 11/12 on the UNMODIFIED HEAD source (control: KNN 81 online vs 71 offline), and the mismatching gun moves between runs (KNN, then WallBounce) - a live/offline boundary race. So '12/12' was a lucky run, and that proof should be treated as strong-but-not-exact until the race is fixed. This diff does not touch replayFixture/spawnBullets/tickBullets and the selector is never called during replay, so it is pre-existing. SIDE FINDING, not fixed: the shipped live bot never calls randomize(), so the 'random tie-break' is a FIXED sequence across process restarts. Overfitting guard vs a non-surfer (SpinBot): inconclusive - ModularBot fires only 17-31 real shots/run against fast bots because the range-aware firing gate is strict at long range, so the guard has little power. Wilson looked better (18.5% vs 8.6%) but on 70-92 shots with a 5-33% spread. Not evidence either way.