f91e12196537c6c1e64353160e8885445e3e222b
Measure, for every shot ModularBot fires at the real DrussGT, the lead we actually applied vs the lead the enemy's motion required, from the recorded live battles (/tmp/tfil_ab2, 70 battles / 490 rounds / 54926 shots, plus a 35-battle powtest replication of a different binary). - requiredLead from an AIM-INDEPENDENT interception solve (bullet speed vs enemy truth), appliedLead from the server-recorded bullet bearing. - capture = applied/required, guarded at 2px lateral lead (1.6% excluded); headline metric is the robust proportional slope. - validation: hits 11.6px mean miss / 80.8% inside 18px, misses 134px, 11.6x separation; 496/496 death + 70/70 owner attributions correct. Direct answer: capture falls with RANGE (capSlp 0.401 -> 0.135, and |err|/tolerance 1.27 -> 7.54) but is FLAT across fired POWER within a band (450+, enemy alive: 0.154 / 0.127 / 0.127). The sub-0.5 long-range shots (1.18% hit) are finishKill endgame shots at a near-dead DrussGT, not a lead-capture failure. A naive linear predictor captures 0.29-0.60; we reach 46-67% of that, so the under-lead is real but capture=1.0 is unattainable against a dodger (oracle required lead).
tools/ab: reusable A/B runner + analyzer (frozen-HEAD build, exact permutation test, liveness check)
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