4829f9ca13cf3fcd5a250c2a7c566e111d1afa8c
333 Commits
| Author | SHA1 | Message | Date | |
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 SirStone
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4829f9ca13 |
BitBrain vs TMHorizon vs Pattern: live A/B on shipped TFIL (null result)
4 arms x 15 runs x 7 rounds (60 battles, 0 failed) vs real DrussGT on the
shipped TFIL default, frozen at
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SirStone
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ccff7e3e4a |
STRAFE: curved wings + guaranteed wall/corner escape; shipped TFIL default untouched
Task j112. Two changes to the TR_MOVEMENT=strafe engine, both OFF the shipped tfil path; the binary default is still tfil. CURVED WINGS: the candidate set was the straight 1-D line through the bot, which a bounded segment always terminates at a wall. It is now an adaptive parabola with the vertex on the bot: point(y) = bot + yhat*y + xhat*kappa(y)*y^2 xhat is the unit vector away from the nearest wall(s) (summed inward normals, so a corner yields the diagonal). kappa grows as the wall approaches and saturates at TR_STRAFE_KAPPA; every wing point is clamped inside TR_STRAFE_WALL_SAFE, so the wing FLATTENS and runs parallel to the wall instead of touching it. In open space kappa == 0 and the wing is exactly the old straight line. The wing chord at the reach tilts the heading band toward the interior by atan(kappa*reach) (capped by TR_STRAFE_WING_MAX); the body still only turns slowly to follow that tangent, never to face the target, and reversals are still setForward sign flips. GUARANTEED ESCAPE: with every candidate over threshold the old fallback minimised pathMaxHeat, whose gradient points AT the wall (the shortest path has the least wall exposure), so the least-hot tile was the adjacent one and led further along the wall. Near a wall the picker now ranks by the DESTINATION (farthest from the wall, then coolest tile) and commands the sign whose velocity has a positive component along the wall-away normal. That sign is re-asserted EVERY tick, so speed*heading . away >= 0 while escape is active: the clearance cannot fall. mode=escape reaches the [strafe] log. A mild wall-margin bias (TR_STRAFE_WALL_BIAS) prefers higher-clearance tiles when near a wall. GUI/log: the curved wings are drawn as an orange polyline (candidates follow the curve), a white ray + ESCAPE label marks the escape, and the [strafe] line now carries wall=<dist> kappa=<..> mode=<pick|fallback|escape|radial>. Gates (offline, kinematic replay of the DrussGT fixtures; see common_libs/tests/measure_strafe_wings.nim, plus the reused j108/j111 gates): wall occupancy (within 54 px) falls 25.6->4.3 / 18.3->4.1 / 23.8->4.3 / 27.8->4.7 percent and the longest continuous wall run 191->31 / 49->25 / 208->47 / 246->27 ticks; corner-region occupancy 4.7->0.0 percent with the longest corner run 71->7. The escape sweep (3520 start x heading x enemy runs, 110k escape ticks) shows ZERO per-tick guarantee violations and a worst corner run of 21 ticks. Open-space parity is bit-identical (kappa == 0), reversals are still sign flips (0 non-sign commands), and mean turn/speed are unchanged (OFF 4.42 deg/tick, 31.3 percent no-turn vs ON 4.45 / 30.7; reversal-interval entropy 5.309 -> 5.311 bits). The fixtures are OPEN-LOOP, so these are veto-capable checks, not a live win claim. |
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SirStone
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ed25ce29ad |
STRAFE: range control (tilt) + corner-stall escape; shipped TFIL default untouched
Task j111. Two changes to the TR_MOVEMENT=strafe engine, both OFF the shipped tfil path; the binary default is still tfil. RANGE CONTROL (a hypothesis under test, no default changed elsewhere): the body is still pinned ~perpendicular to the threat, but the line is tilted by the range error: lineAngle = threat + 90 + appliedTilt, with the tilt zero inside +/-TR_STRAFE_RANGE_TOL around TR_STRAFE_RANGE (200 px, chosen because it is exactly TR_POWER_FAR_DIST) and clamped to +/-TR_STRAFE_TILT_MAX. A tilt alone cannot change range (the picker chooses both ends at random), so the picker also PREFERS the end that reduces |distance - target| with a probability that grows with |tilt|; both ends stay possible. The tilt sign is aligned to the ENEMY bearing, since is the bullet direction (roughly its opposite) when a bullet is in flight. Knobs: TR_STRAFE_RANGE (200), TR_STRAFE_RANGE_TOL (25), TR_STRAFE_TILT_MAX (15), TR_STRAFE_TILT_GAIN (0.10), all registered in env_report.nim (emit + knownEnvNames). NOT claimed to be better: j107 measured that drifting 25-30 px closer made damage/run and wins WORSE. CORNER STALL (a real defect): a line whose in-arena candidate set was empty set targetValid=false and kept driving on the last sign, so the bot could oscillate inside a corner tile forever. Three defenses: (1) a deterministic corner guard projects the outward component off the line whenever BOTH ends are outside, so the line becomes wall-parallel and a candidate always exists; (2) a degenerate line (<=1 candidate) falls back to a radial search for the coolest in-arena tile and commits the sign; (3) a commanded move with no displacement for StuckFlipTicks (5) ticks flips the sign. Both warnings now reach the [strafe] log. GUI/log: the tilt is drawn as the existing strafe line (it is lineForward), plus a green/red ray toward the enemy (length = |distance-target|) and white text d=.. tgt=.. tilt=..; a red disc marks a stuck tick. The existing overlays and the j110 heat grid are unchanged. Gates (offline, kinematic replay of the DrussGT fixtures; see common_libs/tests/measure_strafe_range_stall.nim): on the j110 field all four corners that were 100% confined inside 72 px / 22.6 px max before now escape (<=2.6% confined, 209-741 px); the achieved |distance-200| falls on 3 of 4 fixtures (mean -16% to -30%); mean |turnRate| and the 8.00 px/tick speed are essentially unchanged (no-turn property survives). Reversal-interval entropy falls 5.85 -> 5.31 bits (still above TFIL's 5.09): the range bias costs some reversal randomness while closing. |
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SirStone
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1ea84f5b6e |
STRAFE: draw the heat field, real bullet danger, corrected ring comment
Three defects the owner hit as "no heat tiles anymore" under TR_MOVEMENT=strafe. 1. The strafe overlay drew ONLY the tiles on its strafe line, so the computed heat field was essentially invisible. It now draws the WHOLE field exactly as TFIL does (every non-zero tile, yellow->orange->red ramp by field max, integer value label) behind the same debugGraphics flag, with TR_STRAFE_HEAT_GRID=0 to hide it. The strafe overlays draw on top, unchanged. 2. STRAFE carried the SHIPPED bullet constants (core 10 / aura 5), so a bullet's own heat sat exactly ON PathDangerThreshold (10.0) and a bullet was never dangerous on its own in this mover; it only ever bit through its corridor. Defaults are now the retune's 20/10, exposed as TR_STRAFE_BULLET_CORE / TR_STRAFE_BULLET_AURA. 3. The ring mover's header documented CorridorHeat 5.0 / WallHotness 10.0 while the code has always been 10.0 / 15.0. A job read the comment and handed out sub-threshold heat values, which emptied the field. The comment now states the real values and their actual behaviour; no code values changed. Also sets strafe's heat defaults to the retune shape (bullet 20/10, corridor 10, wall 15/5, pillar 0), documented with the reason. Gate A re-run (j110, offline DrussGT fixture, measure_strafe_gates.nim): corrected DEFAULT : 24.6% of picks with ZERO safe tile, mean 11.17 safe j108 shipped field: 63.4% / 3.70 (reproduced exactly) j108 ring retune : 8.1% / 18.41 (reproduced exactly) bullet isolated : 11.4% / 17.07 The corrected default beats the shipped field but is WORSE than j108's retune row: the bullet retune alone costs 8.1 -> 11.4, the corridor/wall retune accounts for the rest. That is the deliberate price of making a bullet dangerous. Guards green: test_env_report 24 PASS, test_tfil_commit_env 30 PASS (shipped TFIL default untouched, byte-for-byte), test_tfil_ring_weights 24 PASS. The three new knobs are registered in the boot env report so the tree-scan guard stays clean. |
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SirStone
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dc071b83f3 |
ModularBot: [result] round/battle outcome log lines (TR_RESULT_LOG, default on)
One greppable '[result]' line per round plus one at battle end, stdout only: [result] round 3/7 WE WON (enemy destroyed) | us 42.1 energy, them 0.0, 812 ticks | rounds won 3/7 [result] battle END: rounds won 4/7 Outcome is authoritative from RoundEndedEventForBot.results.rank (1 = winner); death observations (our onDeath, enemy onBotDeath) and onWonRound refine it into WE WON (enemy destroyed) / WE DIED (killed) / BOTH DIED (score decided) / TIMEOUT (score decided). Our own death is reported the instant it happens. TR_RESULT_LOG registers in the boot env report; default on, only explicit off-values disable it. No behaviour change - logging/state only. |
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SirStone
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a50c0125d5 |
STRAFE movement: body pinned perpendicular to the threat, reversals by sign flip
New engine movements/strafe.nim, selected by TR_MOVEMENT=strafe (default stays tfil, byte-identical — test_tfil_commit_env.nim's 30 checks still pass). Design (the owner's): - AXIS = incoming bullet's direction when a bullet is in flight, else the perpendicular of the enemy bearing. The body heading is kept inside a band (TR_STRAFE_BAND, default 20 deg) around the perpendicular LINE; it turns only when outside the band, and never turns to face a movement target. - Candidate tiles on the perpendicular line through our position, both forward and backward, within TR_STRAFE_REACH px, with a perpendicular jitter of +/- TR_STRAFE_SPREAD tiles. A tile is acceptable when its path max heat is <= PathDangerThreshold, the SAME safety rule TFIL uses. - Move by SIGN only: setForward(+/-MaxSpeed>). Dwell is re-picked after a random number of ticks in [TR_STRAFE_DWELL_MIN, TR_STRAFE_DWELL_MAX], on arrival, or on a serious threat spike. - Heat machinery is REUSED from the shipped mover, not re-implemented: the exported heatDecay()/bulletMagScale() (j105 time-indexed model) and the PillarHotness/PillarRadiance globals (j106 pillar-free default). The heat shape is overridable via TR_STRAFE_CORRIDOR_HEAT/WALL_HOTNESS/WALL_RADIANCE (defaults = the shipped TFIL field). - GUI overlay: strafe line, threat axis, candidate tiles (safe/unsafe), chosen target, sign-coloured movement ray, and the heading band. Gates (offline, recorded DrussGT fixture, 20026 ticks): - A TILE AVAILABILITY: shipped heat field -> a safe tile exists on only 36.6% of picks (63.4% fall back to the least-hot tile); the ring retune (corridor 5, wall 10/5) raises it to 91.9%. - B PREDICTABILITY: reversal-interval entropy 5.84 bits vs TFIL 5.09; direction entropy 1.00 both; long-lag autocorrelation ~0 for both (no periodic component). Fewer reversals (710 vs 1453) and more full-speed ticks. measurements: common_libs/tests/measure_strafe_gates.nim Also registers TR_STRAFE_* in the boot env report (ModularBot_garage/src/ env_report.nim) and wires the engine into ModularBot.nim (hold -> strafe, ram trigger -> rammer). |
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SirStone
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99cf9e5c82 | tfil heat/pillar A/B: record the owner's decision to keep the virtual pillar removed | ||
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SirStone
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48f38b80e7 |
TFIL heat-time + virtual pillar: live A/B (6 arms x 70 rounds) - neither change beats the pre-change mover
Runs the pre-registered A/B for the two movement changes in HEAD: the time-indexed bullet heat (TR_TFIL_HEAT_TIME, |
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SirStone
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f58d65d2e8 |
TMComposites gate: per-gun confidence faithful for 3 guns; no pair composes
Adds a per-sample intrinsic-confidence field (GunPrediction.confidence, threaded through FeedbackEvent/VirtualBullet, populated by Pattern, DecayGF, KNN, GuessFactor, Tsetlin, TMHorizon) and an offline recorder + analyzer that reproduce the paper's Figure 2 per gun and its Eq-8 composite. Measured on 3 held-out tr-bridge DrussGT battles (33k ticks, ~133k samples/gun): - FAITHFUL: DecayGF (rho +0.133), KNN (+0.090), Pattern (+0.064, weak). - GuessFactor is ANTI-faithful (rho -0.067); Tsetlin c_max is useless (0.001). - No pair of guns specialises complementarily: the same gun dominates both high-confidence slices in every pair. - Eq-8 alpha-normalised confidence-weighted composite: 18.41% vs Pattern 20.45% (McNemar p=3.1e-126). Faithful-only variant 18.68%, still loses. Shuffle control passes weakly (composite > shuffle, p=4e-14) so ~0.7pp of competence is real but ~2pp short. Offline veto: design is dead. See docs/tmcomposites_gate.md. |
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SirStone
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d0750ab020 |
TFIL: remove the virtual centre pillar from the shipped default; register j102 env reads
The default mover painted a 30/10 radiance blob on the arena centre even though the arena has NO physical pillar there, creating a 4x4 tile (144x144 px) exclusion zone over open centre floor. Set PillarHotness/PillarRadiance to 0/0 in the shipped default (matching the ring variant) and add TR_TFIL_PILLAR_ON=1 to restore the old 30/10 field for A/B without a rebuild; registered in env_report. Because the shipped default legitimately changed, the default-path parity golden (fixtures/tfil_commit_default.golden) was regenerated from the NEW default, with an explicit 'deliberate default change' note in the test so a future failure is treated as a real regression. Also register the three env reads job j102 added in common_libs/bitbrain (TR_BITBRAIN_MODE / _DECAY_EVERY / _DECAY_SHIFT), which the env-report guard was failing on. Verification: test_env_report all green; test_tfil_commit_env 30/30. |
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SirStone
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fca899376e |
TFIL: time-indexed bullet heat (TR_TFIL_HEAT_TIME, DEFAULT OFF)
Make danger a function of time-to-arrival instead of flat distance. Bullet
core/aura/corridor heat becomes magnitude(power) * decay(dt), dt = along/speed:
* decay(dt) = exp(-dt/tau) is a function of TIME; a fixed tau projects a
pixel reach of speed*tau, so fast/weak bullets get a longer slope and slow
ones a shorter one — derived from speed = 20 - 3*power, not hand-tuned.
tau = TR_TFIL_HEAT_TAU.
* magnitude(power) scales the near-end heat with power from DAMAGE
(calcBulletDamage = 4p, linear in p; SCORE_PER_BULLET_DAMAGE = 1.0). Hit
probability is FLAT across power (docs/env_reference.md), so risk does not
justify power scaling — the cost of the hit does. Floored at 1.0 so a weak
bullet's near end is never less dangerous than the flat model.
Gain = TR_TFIL_HEAT_POWER_GAIN.
Every source is already f(dt), so the time-indexed planner (evaluate a cell at
the tick the bot would ARRIVE, i.e. heatDecay(dt - arrivalDelay)) is a one-line
change. It is intentionally NOT implemented here.
Default path is byte-identical: with TR_TFIL_HEAT_TIME unset both factors are
exactly 1.0 (IEEE x*1.0 is exact), and the committed golden replay in
common_libs/tests/test_tfil_commit_env.nim (20,026 ticks) still passes
byte-for-byte against the pre-change mover. The debug corridor outline is also
drawn only to the model's reach when enabled, so the GUI shows the shortening.
Offline field measurement (common_libs/tests/measure_tfil_heat_time.nim,
46,054 fixture ticks, tau=9/gain=1): corridor reach drops from 443px
wall-to-wall to 143px mean (32% retained); fraction of tiles > 10 goes
0.61 -> 0.57; largest contiguous safe region 118 -> 140 tiles; mean
distance-to-nearest-safe-tile 49 -> 42px. Saturation stays high because wall
radiance + pillar alone are 44% of tiles over threshold and are untouched.
Registers the three knobs in env_report (report + known-name set).
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SirStone
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4270136948 | docs: correct counted-SBC decay amortised cost figure | ||
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SirStone
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d85ff53d34 |
State-window gate: a temporal window of wave-relative states does NOT beat a single state
Re-runs the SBC coincidence premise as a cheap veto test on the 70-battle
live-vs-DrussGT corpus (/tmp/tfil_ab2). Defines the wave-relative state
(lat/vlat/toa/room/turn, 5/7.9/10 bits at Q=2/3/4), quantises the miss offset
at the bullet's arrival into 7 bins, and sweeps window length K in
{1,4,8,16,32,48} with an interpolated suffix-backoff model under a BY-BATTLE
70/30 split (3 seeds).
Result: NO. On the pre-fire frame the window is worse than the single
fire-tick state at every K/Q/A (e.g. K=8 costs +0.35..+0.46 bits). On the
during-flight frame the entire apparent gain is the later decision tick, not
the window; the single state alone drops 2.70 -> 1.31 bits as K goes 1 -> 32.
The shuffle-order control confirms recency matters but the windows do not:
by Q=4/K=8 they average ~1 observation and never recur. The single state
survives as a strong predictor (log-loss 2.346 vs 2.698 majority; bin
accuracy 0.409 vs 0.235).
Gate only: no gun, no live-win claim.
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SirStone
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40ba96f649 |
BitBrain SBC: counted mode + global decay (forgetting, probabilities)
Adds an smCounted storage mode alongside the default smBitset. Each (i,j,class) cell becomes a saturating uint8 counter; learn increments it and a global fractional decay (c -= c shr decayShift every decayEvery learns) makes forgetting possible. infer sums raw counters; new inferProb sums the per-cell posterior P(class|cell) (scale-free, recommended readout). Bitset path is the default and byte-for-byte unchanged: test_bitbrain 56/56 (was 32), and test_bitbrain_mnist reproduces 97.210% corrected / 96.540% bug-compatible exactly. Counted mode configurable at runtime (TR_BITBRAIN_MODE / TR_BITBRAIN_DECAY_*) and compile time (-d:bitbrainDecay*). Measured: forgetting (86.2% vs 48.9% on a permuted-label stream), probabilities (rare-class balanced 0.998 vs 0.500), and the stationary cost (counted hurts MNIST; see docs/bitbrain_counted_sbc.md). Harness: common_libs/tests/measure_counted_sbc.nim |
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SirStone
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39e06719fb |
Campaign phase 2 ledger: live lead-gain sweep (gains above 1.0 do NOT beat Pattern)
6 arms x 7 runs x 7 rounds vs real DrussGT on one frozen binary ( |
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SirStone
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2747ebd323 |
BitBrain: TR_BITBRAIN_GAINS env knob (candidate set + fixed-gain degenerate)
Task A of campaign phase 2: the lead-gain candidate set is now pure env, so the live arms need no recompile. - common_libs/guns/bitbrain_gun.nim: BB_GAINS_ENV (TR_BITBRAIN_GAINS); the candidate list is parsed once at gun construction into a dynamic seq, so the hit counts/hit rates are sized to it. Unset/unparsable -> the shipped BB_CAND set [0,0.25,0.5,0.75,1.0] (byte-identical behaviour). Exactly ONE candidate degenerates to a FIXED gain applied from the first shot (learning bypassed), still gated to the long bands. parseGains clamps to [0,8], de-dupes and sorts so the argmax tie rule is unchanged. The [bb] line now prints the APPLIED gain AND the resulting angular shift, so a run's correction is auditable from stdout. - ModularBot_garage/src/env_report.nim: emit TR_BITBRAIN_GAINS (resolved candidate set) and add BB_GAINS_ENV to the known-name list. - tools/ab/arms_leadgain.txt: the 6-arm phase-2 sweep definition. |
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SirStone
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c305ef4212 |
BitBrain campaign phase 1: the missing gain sweep and BitBrain as a lead-gain corrector
Task A — the gain region Phase 0 never covered (gain < 1). Extend the prediction-quality ruler with gain 0.25/0.50/0.75 arms and a fixed causal per-band arm. Full 70-run result: the hitProxy-argmax curve is [1.00, 1.00, 1.00, 0.00, 0.00] — Pattern below 300 px, HeadOn above — worth +0.13 pp at 300-450 and +2.16 pp at 450+ (0.0767 -> 0.0984). Lead correlation is identical for every g>0 (Pearson is scale-invariant), so a shrinking gain adds no lead information; and the least-squares optimum [1,1,1,1,0.25,0.25] diverges from the hitProxy optimum because Pattern's lead errors are bimodal. Task B — rebuild guns/bitbrain_gun.nim as a lead-gain corrector: aim = LOS + gain*(patternAim - LOS), gain learned online per range band by ranking candidate gains on the hit-probability proxy (the observed lead label via tmhObservedAt), gated to range >= 300 px. ADE+SBC output removed. Offline (70 runs): Pattern below 300 px, +0.37 pp at 300-450, +1.90 pp at 450+ (hitProxy 0.0957 vs 0.0767), matching the fixed rule to within 0.27 pp at 450+ and exceeding it at 300-450. ~0.0007 ms/tick marginal (old gun ~0.114 ms/tick). Default off; rack membership, env report and guard tests (bitbrain 32, registration 13, rack 48, tm_pattern 20, env_report) unchanged and green. Ledger: docs/bitbrain_campaign.md Phase 1, including the three on-file negatives and the causal-shippability note. No live claim. |
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SirStone
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140fe2519a |
HeadOn (no-lead) vs Pattern LIVE at long range: clean negative, offline ruler killed
2 arms x 15 runs x 7 rounds, one frozen binary from HEAD
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SirStone
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a82c864c60 |
bitbrain campaign phase 0: offline prediction-quality ruler and the bar
New harness (common_libs/gun_harness/prediction_quality.nim + common_libs/tests/run_prediction_quality.nim): per-gun single-tick aim error in degrees against the true continuous interception point on the recorded live-vs-real-DrussGT corpus (/tmp/tfil_ab2/out, 70 runs, 899607 ticks), per range band, with the hit-probability proxy mean(|err|<=atan(18/range)). Validated: recorded hits separate from misses 13.34x px (reference 11.59x), perfect-oracle max |err| = 0, correct ordering on synthetic ground truth, two full runs byte-identical. Fixed a wrap180 bug (Nim float mod keeps the dividend sign) that inflated the negative error tail. Bar (mean|err| deg [hitProxy] at 450+): Pattern 16.19 [0.077], naive-linear 22.86 [0.054], TMHorizon 16.20 [0.076], BitBrain 16.20 [0.077], static HeadOn 12.33 [0.098], oracle 0 [1.0]. Lead-gain sweep on Pattern is a dead end (1.0 wins every band). Naive-linear applies ~1.8x Pattern's lead but carries no more lead information (corr 0.178 vs 0.165) and is strictly worse. Ledger: docs/bitbrain_campaign.md. All verdicts remain live-only. |
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SirStone
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32a5e72fac |
Gun mixing (TMHorizon+BitBrain) vs DrussGT: clean negative, no dodge disruption
4 arms x 7 runs vs real DrussGT. mix alternates the two guns 476 times/7 runs (liveness OK) but our bullets are no more varied (power sd / aim-offset sd flat) and DrussGT's dodge quality is unchanged (miss/tick mix-pat +0.03, p=0.66; MDE 3.8%). mix wins 24/49 = the 49% baseline; the user's 6/10 has P=0.353 at 49%. New tools/ab/ab_dodge_analyze.py splits the validated per-shot dodge instrument by arm and adds gun-switch/power/bearing liveness; fixtures committed. |
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SirStone
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d93ce444c0 |
BitBrain verdict: clean negative at 30 runs/arm; analyzer gets MC + Mann-Whitney + MDE
- docs/bitbrain_gun_verdict.md: control vs bb_decay (decay SBC memory) vs a provably-zero placebo, 30 runs/arm vs real DrussGT. Nothing separates (bb_decay +3.3 dmg/run, p=0.71; round wins 97/210 vs 97/210, p=1.00); the 7-run shape does not replicate. TR_BITBRAIN_RANGE=0 is clamped to 1.0 deg (bitbrain_gun.nim:207) so it is NOT a zero-shift placebo; TR_BITBRAIN_MIN_OBS unreachable is used instead. - tools/ab/ab_analyze.py: keep exact enumeration for C(n,na)<=20e6 (7v7), add a seeded Monte-Carlo permutation test (1e6 draws, 0x5eed5eed) with its standard error, a tie-corrected Mann-Whitney U cross-check, a minimum detectable effect line, all-pairs comparisons, and a [bb] shift check. - tools/ab/README.md: document the new analyzer output. |
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SirStone
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f91e121965 |
lead capture by range: we under-lead (0.40->0.135) — a RANGE effect, not a power one
Measure, for every shot ModularBot fires at the real DrussGT, the lead we actually applied vs the lead the enemy's motion required, from the recorded live battles (/tmp/tfil_ab2, 70 battles / 490 rounds / 54926 shots, plus a 35-battle powtest replication of a different binary). - requiredLead from an AIM-INDEPENDENT interception solve (bullet speed vs enemy truth), appliedLead from the server-recorded bullet bearing. - capture = applied/required, guarded at 2px lateral lead (1.6% excluded); headline metric is the robust proportional slope. - validation: hits 11.6px mean miss / 80.8% inside 18px, misses 134px, 11.6x separation; 496/496 death + 70/70 owner attributions correct. Direct answer: capture falls with RANGE (capSlp 0.401 -> 0.135, and |err|/tolerance 1.27 -> 7.54) but is FLAT across fired POWER within a band (450+, enemy alive: 0.154 / 0.127 / 0.127). The sub-0.5 long-range shots (1.18% hit) are finishKill endgame shots at a near-dead DrussGT, not a lead-capture failure. A naive linear predictor captures 0.29-0.60; we reach 46-67% of that, so the under-lead is real but capture=1.0 is unattainable against a dodger (oracle required lead). |
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SirStone
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795a0e59fe |
BitBrain gun (id 16): Pattern-relative ADE+SBC aim corrector, default off
Wire the verified common_libs/bitbrain ADE+SBC library into ModularBot as a
fine-grained angular corrector on top of Pattern's prediction, the shape the
offline gate test measured (argmax readout over N correction classes).
- common_libs/guns/bitbrain_gun.nim: new gun. Input = the existing TMHorizon
53 bits (tmhBaseBits + tmhLits); output = argmax class centre over
+-TR_BITBRAIN_RANGE, applied by rotating the Pattern point around the shooter
exactly as tmhApplyShift does. Label = the +h-tick fact from TmHorizonGun's
own observation ring (never across a round). Prequential (defer + resolve).
AD layer synthesised online for our binary inputs (center=0): heuristic
cold-start thresholds + running-histogram ~1% percentile init + the library's
adaptThresholds. Memory modes perRound (default, measured best) / retained /
decay (periodic partial SBC wipe). Lazy network build + local RNG, so the
default path builds nothing and consumes no global randomness.
- tm_horizon.nim: export tmhUpdateHistory and add tmhObservedAt (label seam).
- selector.nim: register BITBRAIN at rack id 16, default rmOff, in the SAME
commit as the id and the wiring (the
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SirStone
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1fec87537d | gitignore: keep the BitBrain primary-source zip local (explicit path, not a pattern) | ||
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SirStone
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17c50159ba | tools/ab: reusable A/B runner + analyzer (frozen-HEAD build, exact permutation test, liveness check) | ||
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SirStone
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e670788eee |
env_reference: the ring mover was NEVER measured offline - correct a false label
The offline-harness audit (`e40c849`, `docs/offline_harness_trust.md`) found that the claim "best offline hit rate of anything measured" for the ring mover was false. The 20.28% figure is a LIVE number: `docs/feature_ab_results.md` and commit `bfdcdf8` record 35 real-DrussGT bridge battles with a server-side event sidecar as the ground truth, and the 6/49 round wins is likewise live. There is no offline measurement of the ring mover anywhere - the offline harness scores GUNS, not movements, and has no movement driver at all. So this was NOT an offline-vs-live calibration failure, which is how it has been described repeatedly (including by the orchestrator). It was a METRIC MISMATCH: a movement arm judged on hit rate instead of damage/run and round wins - and hit rate is precisely the metric that concealed its collapse. The lesson previously attached to this result was therefore the wrong one. The paragraph now says what actually happened and points at the audit. Docs-only; no code touched. |
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SirStone
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e40c8493a6 |
Offline harness: audited, calibrated against live, and one real bug fixed
AUDIT (docs/offline_harness_trust.md, new): - Re-ran acceptance_offline_vs_online myself TWICE: 12/12 deterministic guns exact both times (264 ticks/enemyId=1, 244 ticks/enemyId=2), death boundary included. The offline range reproduces the live bot's own per-gun virtual telemetry exactly. - Re-verified the (fireTick, powerBin) wave-pairing fix: exact-key lookup, collisions counted not silently mislabelled; test_wave_pairing 17/17 PASS. - The offline score is the live TELEMETRY (last-100 virtual hit rate) but NOT the live BATTLE score (damage/round wins). Two-level answer, documented. - bmPoint scores up to one tick-step (~17px) PAST its documented aim distance, while the tie-break probe scores exactly the aim point. Real, low-impact, deliberately NOT fixed (point metric is non-default, measured negative, and the committed point baselines would silently change). - bmPoint/bmPath, perfect-info captures, conditional-on-selection live rates, and hit-rate-as-objective-for-movement all catalogued as non-apples comparisons. FIX (unambiguous, fail-before/pass-after): - common_libs/tests/range_guns.nim: buildAllGunDrivers defaulted to enableTmSelector=true, so run_range / analyze_selector / test_power_selection / measure_power_policy spawned gun 13 (TMSelect) - a gun the shipped bot NEVER spawns. The shared VirtualTracker ring is order-sensitive, so those 4 spawns/tick permuted the learning guns' resolution order (the exact confound |
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SirStone
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f41cd08718 | BitBrain gate test: fine-grained aim correction vs naive + Pattern (offline) | ||
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SirStone
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1adefaba26 |
DrussGT dodge vs fired power: no movement response once range is controlled
Answers the user's hypothesis that DrussGT dodges low-power shots better. Measured on 70 live battles / 490 rounds / 54939 real shots vs real DrussGT (/tmp/tfil_ab2) and replicated on 35 more battles / 24280 shots (/tmp/powtest). Power is not randomly assigned - our policy caps it by RANGE (TR_POWER_FAR_DIST=200 -> 1.0) and by OUR OWN ENERGY (the slope), so inside a range band power is almost a deterministic function of our energy and a naive low-vs-high comparison is secretly a losing-vs-healthy comparison. Everything is stratified by range band and backed by a within-band shuffled-label null (arrival re-derived, so the null keeps the kinematic channel), a round-cluster bootstrap, and a within-shot CONTROL window 40 ticks later when the bullet is long gone. RESULT: no behavioural response. In band 450+ the raw miss distance at arrival is +8.25 px [+5.39,+11.25] for HIGH power - but per flight tick it is 4.52 vs 4.51 px/tick (delta -0.01 [-0.12,+0.10]), i.e. entirely the 2.13-tick longer flight window of the slower bullet. Fixed-12-tick lateral displacement is flat (55.63 vs 55.47, -0.15 [-1.15,+0.84]) and turn rate / speed are flat. The whole difference is already present 5 ticks after the trigger pull (+4.2 px) and is just as large in the bullet-free control window (+5.6 px), so it is a property of the low-energy situation, not of the shot. Hit rate is flat (0.10 vs 0.09). Corpus/attribution notes: e*=DrussGT (subject), s*=ModularBot, per TrBattleCapture.java; the Tank-Royale owner id is NOT stable across runs and is recovered per battle from fire geometry + the energy decrement, cross-checked on 496/496 death events. Geometry validated on the server's own hits (mean miss 11.6 px, 80.6% inside the 18 px radius). |
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SirStone
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77e6dace01 |
BitBrain: generic clean-room ADE + SBC library with MNIST acceptance
Implement the BitBrain (Address Decoder Element + Sparse Binary Coincidence) classifier as a generic, deterministic Nim library under common_libs/bitbrain/, written from the published algorithm (Front. Neuroinform. 17:1125844), not from the GPL-3.0 reference C. - ade.nim: signed thresholded random projection (scale 64 / centre 127 defaults reproduce the reference), multi-width ADs, optional deterministic homeostatic threshold adaptation. Hebbian longevity and Metropolis-Hastings sampling are described but not implemented. - sbc.nim: packed class-bit coincidence memory; idempotent learn, counting inference. - bitbrain.nim: container over several ADs and SBCs, online learn/infer, argmax readout, memory accounting. - tests: 32 unit checks (idempotence, planted rule + monotone online curve, shuffled-label chance control, unseen input, homeostasis, memory). - tests/test_bitbrain_mnist.nim: loads the reference pretrained ADs/thresholds and MNIST from /tmp, reproduces the reference exactly - 97.210% corrected and 96.540% bug-compatible - confirming the port. No gun/wiring integration yet; inputs and outputs to be agreed separately. |
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SirStone
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cc11ede824 |
TFIL: measure the commitment A/B on 490 live DrussGT rounds - no effect
Runs the five-arm commitment A/B that |
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SirStone
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c8b2a8c6c5 |
docs: reverse-engineer the BitBrain algorithm from its C source; assess as a gun
Reads docs/BitBrain_C_code.zip end to end (full_mnist_2048.c 568 lines + bitarray.h), reconciles every weight/data file's byte size against its loader, and answers two questions: 1. What the algorithm is: signed thresholded address decoders (random projections) -> write-once sparse binary coincidence bit tensors -> counting/argmax readout. Thresholds and ADs come from an unsupervised program that is NOT in the zip; only the SBC tensors are learned here. The supervised rule is genuinely online, single-pass, order-free, and has no learning rate - so it satisfies ModularBot's reset-on-enemy-change constraint. Found and isolated a real bug: read_from_sbc's uint8_t bit_test truncates the 32-bit bit test, so only ADEs with i%%32 < 8 are ever counted. Shipped reader: 96.540%% (reproduced exactly); with the bug fixed: 97.210%%. 2. Whether it can become a gun: not on this evidence. Measured full inference at ~0.56 ms/sample (cost is not the blocker), but the AD layer is unobtainable, and this repo has already shown the binding constraint is the target signal, not the learner - the TM head scored 2.08pp below its own majority class and the AD/SBC primitives are already in the 16-family shootout as WiSARD/Bloom/SDM. Recommends a readout swap on the existing WiSARD feature extractor and a Gate-2b-style >=80%% side-accuracy gate before any port. Also: recommends committing the 11 MB zip under its explicit name. |
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SirStone
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19bf4610e4 |
TFIL: env-gated commitment arms (tile-replan cancel is a bug)
The tile-change replan cancels the 15-tick movement commitment whenever OUR
tile changes. With GridSize=36 and speed up to 8 px/tick that is every ~5
ticks, so the commitment is cancelled by the motion it commands (measured:
96.9% of picks were tile-change replans, 33.8% of picks reversed direction).
Adds four env knobs, every default reproducing the shipped mover
byte-for-byte:
TR_TFIL_TILE_REPLAN self (default) | off | enemy
TR_TFIL_COMMIT_TICKS 15 (default)
TR_TFIL_NO_REV 0 (default)
TR_TFIL_COMMIT_LOG off (default, JSONL per-tick diagnostics)
- `off` honours the commitment; the danger replan stays the safety valve.
- `enemy` keys the cancel to the TARGET's tile displacement (the intent the
original comment claimed).
- `TR_TFIL_NO_REV` down-weights (never filters) tiles >90 deg from the travel
direction; the pool can never be emptied.
Default-path parity is guarded by test_tfil_commit_env.nim, which replays
tools/fixtures/tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl and diffs every move command
against a golden generated from the pre-change build (git archive
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SirStone
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f842ac0f76 |
Env report Part 2: warn on misnamed env vars (unknown + compile-time defines)
The boot report printed the raw env and the resolved values, but it never
told the user when a name was WRONG - which is the failure mode that cost
real time: `TMH_NSTATES` was exported as an env var although it is a
compile-time `{.intdefine.}` (`guns/tm_horizon.nim:102`), so the export was
a silent no-op. Add the two warning paths, both boot-only and stdout:
* unknown TR_*/GUN_* names are named explicitly. The known set is built
from the modules' exported env-name constants; the remaining inline
reads are listed once, and common_libs/tests/test_env_report.nim scans
the tree and fails if a name read anywhere is missing.
* any `{.intdefine.}`/`{.strdefine.}`/`{.booldefine.}` symbol present as
an env var is flagged, with the real runtime equivalent when one exists
(`TMH_NSTATES` -> `TR_TMHORIZON_NSTATES`) and an explicit "does not
exist - this knob is compile-time only" when it does not. The map is
derived by grepping the tree; the same test re-greps and fails on drift.
Warnings are emitted only when the env is dirty, so a correct run keeps the
documented A/B/build shape. TR_ENV_REPORT=0 still suppresses everything.
test_env_report.nim: 25 checks (known set, pure helpers, tree literal scan,
tree define scan). All 15 existing guard tests keep their exact counts.
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SirStone
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036979e78e |
env_reference: verify every knob against the code, fix the trap that cost real time
DOCS ONLY. The user set TMH_NSTATES, which is a compile-time {-d:intdefine.}
(-d:TMH_NSTATES=2, tm_horizon.nim:102), not an env var; the runtime var is
TR_TMHORIZON_NSTATES (tm_horizon.nim:139). This rewrites the reference so that
class of confusion cannot recur.
What was WRONG and is now fixed:
- "unparseable warns and falls back" was false for the numeric/bool knobs: only
the enumerated string knobs warn; envInt/envFloat/envBool fall back silently.
- TR_POWER_LOG/TR_RAM_LOG/TR_MOVEMENT_LOG/TR_RECORD_WORLDSTATE/
TR_RADAR_FORCE_SPIN/TR_RADAR_SCANLOG/TR_TRACKER_PROBE are read with existsEnv,
so TR_POWER_LOG=0 turns the log ON. Documented per knob.
- TR_POWER_ENERGY_MIN is a CAP at low energy, not a minimum-power floor.
- TR_TMHORIZON_* knobs are inert unless TR_RACK_TMHORIZON=both; the doc implied
they were live.
- GUN_SELECTOR_WINDOW is clamped 1..100; TR_MOVEMENT silently falls back to tfil
for any value other than tfil_ring.
- The ring file's own header comment (corridor 5 / wall 10) is stale; the code
defaults are 10.0/15.0 (commit
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SirStone
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9bf3005850 |
Boot-time env report + fix the env reference
The bot is spawned by the server/GUI, so it inherits the SERVER's environment. The user could not tell whether their exports reached the bot, so print a one-shot greppable report at boot: grep '^\[env\]' /tmp/modularbot_stdout.log Section A prints every TR_*/GUN_* this process actually received, the count vs the total env size, a loud warning when nothing matched, and the process identity (pid/ppid, cwd, self command line, and the PARENT command line) so the spawn trap is obvious. Section B prints the resolved effective value of every documented knob with its source (env|default), including clamps and the rack's empty-set fallback. Build identity (NimVersion, compile date/time, binary path/size/mtime) pins the exact artifact. Suppress with TR_ENV_REPORT=0. docs/env_reference.md: add the missing GUN_SHOTLOG_PATH, GUN_SELECTOR_MINOBS/FLOOR/POOL/RANK/SHRINK/SEED, TR_ENV_REPORT and -d:TM_NCLAUSES; record the measured TR_TMHORIZON_WINDOW verdict; and add a prominent 'Did my env vars actually reach the bot?' section with the boot report, the /proc/PID/environ no-code check, the correct GUI launch recipe, and how to prove the trap deliberately. |
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SirStone
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7f6ccfb015 |
Ring mover heat retune (author: the user) - dodge bullets, ignore walls/centre,
re-plan 3x more often Uncommitted working-tree change in `the_floor_is_lava_ring.nim`, confirmed by the user as theirs. Committing it so it stops appearing in every job's `git status`. WHAT IT DOES - a coherent "be far more afraid of bullets" strategy: - BULLETS 2x hotter: BulletCore 10 -> 20, BulletAura 5 -> 10. - Walls weaker and thinner: WallRadiance 10 -> 5; the `WallHotness` default 10 -> 15 (so the heat falls off over ~3 tiles instead of 1, with a higher peak). - CENTRE PILLAR DISABLED: PillarHotness 30 -> 0, PillarRadiance 10 -> 0, so the bot may now use the middle of the arena instead of treating it as a no-go zone. - MUCH more reactive: CommitTicks 15 -> 5 and MinCommitTicks 5 -> 0, i.e. the dodge target is re-chosen 3x more often and a replan is allowed immediately. - `CorridorHeat` default 5 -> 10. This applies ONLY to the ring mover, which is NOT the shipped movement (the default is `tfil`), so the shipped bot is unaffected. TWO FACTS RECORDED, not objections - it is the user's call: 1. `CorridorHeat = 10` now EQUALS `PathDangerThreshold = 10`. The earlier measured taming set it to 5 precisely so a single corridor could no longer poison a path on its own (a corridor at 10 puts every tile along it at/over the threshold). That is part of what lifted the "band-weightable" fraction from 10.8% to 26.5%. At 10 the range weighting gets less to work with. 2. UNMEASURED: this retune has not been A/B'd. The ring mover it modifies was itself measured as a glass cannon (best offline hit rate, but round wins 16/49 -> 6/49, p=0.012). The two changes push in the same direction - hotter bullets and more frequent replanning mean MORE dodging and LESS time spent closing to the 100-200px band where our hit rate peaks (27% vs 5% at 450px). Worth an A/B before drawing conclusions, but it is an experiment, not a shipped change. |
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SirStone
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69debbe347 |
Re-adaptation: the sliding WINDOW is a control-validated +9.3pp on late accuracy
The user's first-hand diagnosis: "once the pattern is learnt enough we hit DrussGT, but as soon as it adapts we are not fast enough to re-adapt again." The gun kept EVERY sample for the whole battle (which the user explicitly asked for), so stale evidence weighed the same as new evidence - accumulation without forgetting. TASK 1 - THE CURVE, MEASURED FIRST (prequential side accuracy, 15 rounds x 4 horizons, deciles of the eval stream): arm early% late% decay frozen (early only) 64.9 61.4 -3.5 accum (shipped) 76.4 75.3 -1.1 window N=150 84.7 84.6 -0.0 resetdrop 5pp 83.2 84.3 +1.0 **The decay IS real but modest and LOCALIZED IN THE LAST ~30% of the round** (last-third vs middle-third: frozen -7.7pp, accum -3.7, window -1.3, resetdrop -1.3). TASK 3 - WHICH FIX HELPS (late-half accuracy, shuffled control in parens): accum (shipped) 75.3 **window N=150 84.6 (51)** +9.3pp **resetdrop 5pp 84.3 (51)** +9.0pp rehearse-all (retrain, NO forgetting) 79.5 - **Sliding window: +9.3pp late (within-round), +9.7 (cross-round), +10.3 (shield).** The shuffled control stays ~50-51%, so it learns the ENEMY, not noise. - **Forgetting is the essential ingredient**: the same periodic retrain WITHOUT forgetting reaches only ~79.5%, so roughly half the gain is the retraining mechanics and half is the forgetting. - Change detection ties the window on late accuracy and gives the best decay, but at a 5pp threshold it fired 300-500 times in the offline stream - noisy. - INERTIA IS REDUNDANT WITH THE WINDOW: lower inertia helps the keep-everything model a lot (accum late 75.3 -> 83.3 at N=8) but leaves the window FLAT (84.6-84.7 at every N). Low inertia and forgetting are SUBSTITUTES, and forgetting is the robust one - `TR_TMHORIZON_NSTATES=8` is NOT the primary fix. VERDICT: SHIPPING CANDIDATE = `TR_TMHORIZON_WINDOW=150`, kept at default 0 until a live A/B confirms. HONEST CAVEATS THAT SET EXPECTATIONS: - The fixtures are OPEN-LOOP (DrussGT does not react to our bullets), so a true mid-round adaptation is NOT present; the dominant measured effect is the LEVEL gap, not the decay magnitude. The user's "it adapts" magnitude is still INFERRED. - The harness uses a STRAIGHT-LINE base while the live gun uses Pattern's prediction, and it ignores the h-tick label delay, so its absolute side accuracy (75-85%) is INFLATED: the same gun measured ~52% = chance live against DrussGT. So +9.3pp is a real ARM DELTA, not a promise that the gun now clears the ~80% accuracy wall that hits need. A live A/B must decide. Adds `measure_tm_readapt.nim` (prequential harness with the mandatory shuffled control, within-round + cross-round protocols, inertia sweep) and its captured results. test_tm_horizon 79 -> 104 (five new groups). test_tm_diag 48, test_tm_automata_diag 55, test_tm_clause_shape 66, test_rack_membership 48 pass. ModularBot compiles. .gitignore: switched from a broad `measure_*` pattern to EXPLICIT binary names. The broad rule was too blunt - it also excluded the `.txt` results file, which made `git add` refuse the whole commit twice. Sources stay tracked; binaries do not. |
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SirStone
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b68707c867 |
Energy economy: the cliff becomes a SLOPE, plus a finishing cap. 11% less energy.
The user's request: "when our bot is low OR enemy is low, it is useless to use high power instead low fast bullets have more chances to finish the enemy. Let's do a math slope: starting from some health down, the power goes down with it." 1. ENERGY SLOPE (`TR_POWER_ENERGY_*`), replacing the old hard step at 50 energy: cap = ENERGY_MAX at/above ENERGY_HI, ENERGY_MIN at/below ENERGY_LO, LINEAR in power between, clamped. Defaults HI=80 LO=20 MIN=0.5 MAX=3.0, so no cap >=80, 0.5 at <=20, and e.g. E=65 -> 2.375, E=50 -> 1.75, E=35 -> 1.125. Rationale: bullet speed is 20-3p, so lower power = FASTER bullet (less lead error, higher hit chance), fires more often (10+2p) and drains slower (p/shot). E[dE] = p(3P-1) => break-even hit probability is 1/3 INDEPENDENT of power, and our measured rates are 5-27%, far below it. 2. FINISHING CAP (`TR_POWER_FINISH_KILL`, default ON): cap power at the SMALLEST bullet that still removes the enemy's remaining energy - `E<=4 -> p=E/4` (min 0.1), `4<E<=16 -> p=(E+2)/6`, `E>16 -> no cap`. Rationale, and it makes the user's instinct stronger than a heuristic: server 1.3.1 caps the damage SCORE at the energy ACTUALLY REMOVED, so overkill is WASTED damage AND ~6x the energy for ZERO extra score. Damage is 4p (p<=1) / 6p-2 (p>1). Both are min-composed with the existing far/below-average caps, may only LOWER power (exhaustively tested), and are exempt while ramming. `TR_POWER_POLICY=0` still returns the uncapped control exactly. MEASURED ENERGY SAVING (offline replay of the DrussGT fixtures, 28,797 ticks): arm shots energy meanP E/1k ticks vs cliff control(uncapped) 1913 4646 2.43 161.4 -90.2% cliff (today) 2363 2443 1.03 84.8 0.0% slope 2404 2178 0.91 75.6 ** 10.9% LESS ** slope+finish 2404 2167 0.90 75.3 ** 11.3% LESS ** So the slope spends ~11% less energy than the cliff AND fires slightly MORE shots (2404 vs 2363) - both directions at once. HONEST NOTE on the finishing rule's reach here: ticks where the enemy is low (0 < E <= 16) are only 2252/28797 = 7.8% of these fixtures, so finishing adds just ~11 energy of saving against DrussGT. It matters in CLOSER fights, not this one. Verification: test_power_policy 58 (was 26) in BOTH the default and TR_POWER_POLICY=0 control arms - slope at E=100/80/65/50/35/20/5, powerToKill across E=0.1..100, the inverse-cover property for E<=16, monotonicity, ram exemption, and an exhaustive sweep proving power <= preference. Guards: test_gun_harness 39, test_vbullet_metric 11, test_power_selection 3, test_adaptive_radar 41, test_tfil_ring_weights 24, test_ram_decision 40, test_rack_membership 48, test_selector_tiebreak 19, test_tm_pattern_registration 20, test_vbullet_admit_gate 12. acceptance 12/12 PASS. ModularBot compiles release. Adds `common_libs/tests/measure_power_policy.nim` (the energy/histogram tool) and updates docs/env_reference.md for the new `energySlope|finishKill` log reasons. NOT MEASURED: the battle/hit-rate effect. The offline figures use the fixture shooter's energy as a proxy, open-loop; the RELATIVE saving is the meaningful part. |
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SirStone
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81af5854df |
FIX an incomplete commit: TMHORIZON was admitted unconditionally at HEAD
MY ERROR. `aed579b` committed `ModularBot.nim` (which wires the new gun as id 15) and `guns/tm_horizon.nim`, but I staged only three files and left job-72's RACK REGISTRATION behind in the working tree. Consequence at HEAD: - `common_libs/gun_harness/selector.nim` still had the 15-entry rack table (ids 0..14) with no TMHORIZON name, so - `TR_RACK_TMHORIZON` was never read (a silent no-op), and - id 15 is PAST the table, and `rackAdmitted` documents "an id past the membership table is admitted" -> **TMHORIZON was admitted unconditionally**. So the committed default rack was `Pattern + TMHORIZON`, not the intended `Pattern only`, and the gun could not be switched off by env at HEAD. This was caught by a live A/B job that had to work around it with `GUN_RACK_DISABLE=15`. FIX (this commit): the rack table goes to 16 entries with `TMHORIZON` appended at id 15 defaulting to `rmOff`, plus the two tests whose length literals follow it (`test_rack_membership` 15->16, `test_tm_pattern_registration` 15->16). `DefaultRackMembership` is again Pattern-only with every other gun `off`. NOTE ON SCOPE: `selector.nim` in the working tree also contains a CONCURRENT job's power-policy threading (an `enemyEnergy` parameter). That work is still in flight and is deliberately NOT included here - only the three rack hunks were staged. The remainder stays unstaged for its own commit. The lesson, recorded because it has bitten twice tonight in different forms: a change is not committed until its registration/table counterpart is, and `git add` of a hand-picked file list is exactly how a half-change ships. |
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SirStone
|
9ba932d1b1 |
docs: complete environment variable reference (every knob, its default, and why)
Single place to answer 'what env vars exist, what do they default to, and what are
they for'. Grouped by area, with the measured reason each knob exists recorded
next to it, since several defaults are counterintuitive:
- The shipped rack is PATTERN ONLY, with the revert one-liner included.
- GUN_SELECTOR_TIEBREAK defaults off because it measured NEGATIVE on real hit
rate, and the per-tick random draw inside the tie band is load-bearing
(commitment cost 7.02% -> 5.10%, p=0.002).
- The power policy is ON because turning it off measured 10.6% -> 7.9% real hit
rate; TR_POWER_FINISH_KILL exists because server 1.3.1 caps the damage SCORE at
the energy actually removed, so overkill scores nothing.
- The ring mover is NOT the default and must not be shipped: best offline hit
rate of anything measured, but it halves survival (16/49 -> 6/49, p=0.012).
- The proactive ram is off because it converts 0/6 times.
- TR_PATTERN_RAD_* are kept but are structurally incapable of changing the shot
(the aim is bearing-only, measured byte-identical on the path metric).
- TR_TMHORIZON_NSTATES is the automata inertia ('mood'): lower = adapts faster.
- TR_VBULLET_ADMIT_ONLY=1 gave +68% tick rate (87 -> 146 ticks/s).
Documents the read-once-at-start convention and the operational trap that the bot
is spawned by the server/GUI, so a variable exported in an unrelated terminal does
NOT reach it. Also lists the compile-time -d: knobs and the test-harness jars.
Snapshot of the source at this commit; f9f8d84-era knobs added by the in-flight
jobs are included where already present.
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SirStone
|
aed579b3af |
TM horizon: retain learning ACROSS ROUNDS, reset only when the ENEMY changes
The user's requirement: "every battle i means from round 1 to round end-battle, so retain all learning until the enemy change." What was built wiped the Tsetlin machines EVERY ROUND, in two places (`onRoundStarted` and the gun's own tick-regression self-reset), so in a 7-round battle each round started cold, trained ~360 samples and threw them away - discarding most of its one chance to do what was asked: overfit the current enemy over the whole battle. THE FIX - two kinds of state, two triggers: - **`resetRoundState` (per ROUND)**: the observation ring, pending/deferred labels, the bullet proxy, motion history, per-tick caches, `roundStartTrained`. These MUST clear every round, because bots teleport back to the starting corners between rounds - an old position would build a garbage label. (That exact class of bug shipped 36-58% wrong labels in the old gun.) - **`resetLearning` (per BATTLE / per ENEMY)**: both Tsetlin machines, `trained`, `sideCorrect/sideTotal`, all histograms, the magnitude median, `pendingDropped`, `observedTargetId`. These now SURVIVE round boundaries. Triggers for the machine wipe: `onGameStarted` (primary) plus a redundant `roundNumber <= 1` fallback in `onRoundStarted`; and a TARGET CHANGE (`targetChanged`, knob `TR_TMHORIZON_RESET_ON_TARGET` default on - a no-op in 1v1, fires on melee target switches; first acquisition never wipes). The tick-regression self-reset now clears ONLY per-round state. Still NO cross-battle persistence: grep for file I/O in the gun finds none. PROOF IT WORKS (live 2-round battle, `TR_RACK_PATTERN=off TR_RACK_TMHORIZON=both`): [tmh-reset] reason=game_start trained_was=0 [tmh-reset] reason=round1 trained_was=0 ...exactly TWO reset lines in the whole battle, both at battle start, and NONE at the round-2 boundary. And the per-round summaries: [tmh-round] trained=1249 thisRound=1249 ... sideAcc=711/1177 (60.4%) [tmh-round] trained=2226 thisRound=977 ... sideAcc=1361/2154 (63.2%) `trained` CLIMBED 1249 -> 2226 across the boundary, and side accuracy rose 60.4% -> 63.2% in round 2 (one battle - suggestive, not proof). Unit tests: `test_tm_horizon` 79 (was 54), including "trained SURVIVES the boundary", "clause states SURVIVE", "trained climbs round1->round2", "game-start wipes and all clauses end Exclude", "different enemy wipes / same enemy does not / knob-off does not", and crucially "a label CANNOT be built across a round boundary" (ringValidCount==0, ringHas(oldTick)==false, pendingCount==0) - the single most dangerous interaction of this change. Guards: test_tm_horizon 79, test_rack_membership 48, test_gun_harness 39, test_vbullet_metric 11, test_power_selection 3, test_adaptive_radar 41, test_tfil_ring_weights 24, test_power_policy 26, test_ram_decision 40, test_selector_tiebreak 19, test_tm_pattern_registration 20, test_vbullet_admit_gate 12, test_tm_diag 48, test_tm_automata_diag 55, test_tm_clause_shape 66. acceptance_offline_vs_online 12/12 VERDICT PASS. Shipped rack unchanged: DefaultRackMembership is still Pattern-only, TMHORIZON off. Residual (pre-existing, out of scope, stated): the internal base `PatternMatcherGun` has a rolling move-history buffer that is NOT cleared at round boundaries - it never was, and the SHIPPED Pattern gun carries history across rounds too. It cannot affect label correctness (labels come from `g.ring`), only base-prediction quality in a round's first ticks. |
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SirStone
|
be74e369eb |
Gate 2b: the shift form WORKS - but break-even needs ~80% side accuracy and the
problem gives 60%. Thread closed with a number, not a shrug.
Gate 2 (
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SirStone
|
fd2f7f608c |
GATE 2: STOP - the TM learns the side but the correction cannot buy hits
Offline four-arm pipeline: extracts the 49-bit draft spec + a 4-bit horizon one-hot (53 bits) from the DrussGT fixtures, derives fact-based quadrant labels (side vs the naive guess, magnitude vs the TRAIN median), trains the validated `tm_diag/tm_core.nim` fresh PER ROUND with a fit / calibrate / eval within-round split, applies each predicted quadrant's out-of-sample conditional-median offset and measures the residual angular error. 50 clauses, N=64, s=3.0, 5 epochs (verdict identical at 1 and 10). Estimated hit = |residual| < atan(18px/range). POOLED (tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot + _shield, N~9.1-9.4k per horizon): h arm med|err| p90|err| hit% 15 naive 4.08 14.24 39.3 15 TM 4.81 13.53 29.0 15 shuffled 4.45 14.58 34.3 15 turn-only 4.13 14.10 37.1 20 naive 6.81 21.60 28.2 20 TM 7.61 20.85 19.2 25 naive 9.71 29.13 20.9 25 TM 10.33 28.63 13.1 30 naive 12.62 36.12 16.4 30 TM 13.09 35.17 10.5 Delta hits (pp): TM-naive **-10.3 / -9.0 / -7.8 / -5.9**; **TM-turn -8.1 / -5.1 / -2.0 / -0.9** (h=15/20/25/30). Median miss: TM is WORSE by +0.5..+0.8 deg. p90: marginally better by 0.5-1.3 deg. So it pulls in the TAIL but not the typical miss. Shuffled control: quadrant accuracy 22.9-24.8% ~= 25% chance, and dHit <= 0 at every horizon -> NO LEAK. (The mild negative is the expected cost of applying a noisy offset, not leakage.) THE MECHANISM, and it is the important part: **the learning is REAL - the TM gets the side right 59.6-61.0% vs 50% (quadrant 34-35% vs 25% chance; turn-only 53-56%) - but it does not translate into hits because the per-quadrant conditional-median offsets (~4-16 deg for "big") are FAR LARGER than the body half-angle (~2.6-3.4 deg at typical range).** The naive guess is essentially UNBIASED (the median signed error is 0.00 deg at every horizon, from the headroom study), so its error is centred on the target; shifting an already-centred distribution away from zero DESTROYS near-target mass. That is why the turn-only arm loses too (-2.2 to -5.8 pp): any constant shift hurts. VERDICT AS IMPLEMENTED: **STOP. There is no case for building the new TM gun on this evidence.** NOT YET DISTINGUISHED, and worth one cheap test before the idea is declared dead: whether this is a STRUCTURALLY dead application (no shift can help, because the baseline is unbiased and the correction is coarser than the target) or merely a MISCALIBRATED one (the offset was fitted to minimise the conditional MEDIAN of the error, which is NOT the objective - hits are maximised by the shift that maximises P(|error| < body), typically a SMALLER shift or none at all on a dense near-zero distribution). That distinction decides whether the whole "TM predicts the enemy's position" premise is dead or only this instantiation of it. Caveats: DrussGT-only; the enemy's movement is a closed-loop response to our CURRENT movement so the numbers are conditional on how we move now; offline observation is perfect every tick while live we see the enemy only on scans, so all of this is an UPPER BOUND. The bullet block was proxy-based (no gun heading or power is recorded in the fixtures) - INFERRED, and stated as such rather than silently dropped. |
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|
SirStone
|
9064377740 |
s settled from OUR code (higher = LONGER clauses), and it cannot rescue the gun
=== TASK 1: THE DIRECTION QUESTION, ANSWERED WITH A DEMONSTRATION ===
I told the user `s` controls clause length but refused to claim the DIRECTION,
because I had seen it described both ways. It is now read out of our own code -
one site per core, in the Type I branch of `tmLearnDir` (`guns/tm_pattern.nim:258`,
`guns/tsetlin.nim:224`, `tm_diag/tm_core.nim:110`):
if pol * d > 0.0:
if lits[lit] == 1:
if cOut == 1: if rand < (s-1)/s: st += 1 # toward Include, w.p. (s-1)/s
else: if rand < 1/s: st -= 1 # toward Exclude, w.p. 1/s
else: if rand < 1/s: st -= 1 # toward Exclude, w.p. 1/s
=> **HIGHER `s` GIVES LONGER CLAUSES.** The include step runs w.p. (s-1)/s
(rising with s); both exclude steps run w.p. 1/s (falling with s).
DEMONSTRATED (49-bit draft, planted 2-literal rule, 3000 train / 1500 eval):
s=1.0 len 1.51 acc 100% s=2.0 len 1.82 acc 100% s=5.0 len 3.02 acc 100%
s=1.5 len 1.42 acc 100% s=3.0 len 2.19 acc 100% s=10 len 4.04 acc 99.7%
s=20 len 5.17 acc 94.5%
WHY s=1.0 DEGENERATES: (s-1)/s = 0 so the include step NEVER fires while 1/s = 1
so BOTH exclude steps always fire - Type I can only remove literals, so a clause
can grow only through the Type II penalty. (On random labels that leaves 43/120
non-empty clauses vs 120/120 at s>=3.)
USABLE RANGE ~[1.5, 5]. tm_pattern uses 3.0; tsetlin uses 1.5.
=== TASK 4: WOULD `s` HELP THE SHIPPED GUN? NO - MEASURED ===
Recompiling the offline driver with -d:TM_S_DEF=<v> (source untouched) retrains
the gun end to end:
s mean len verdict warm acc margin vs majority
1.5 15.82 too long 32.22% -2.03pp
2.0 14.99 too long 34.03% -0.22pp
3.0* 19.17 too long 35.72% +1.48pp (*shipped)
5.0 20.47 too long 34.72% +0.47pp
Lowering `s` shrinks the clauses and makes accuracy WORSE; raising it pads them
and also loses. The shipped 3.0 is the best of the four, and **no value comes
near the healthy 3-8 band.** Combined with the settledness finding, the shape is
consistent with "NO CONSISTENT SHORT RULE EXISTS in this representation/target".
So the bottleneck is the SIGNAL - now confirmed from a THIRD independent angle
(settledness, churn trend, and clause shape). This is the measurement behind the
decision not to spend effort sweeping N or s.
=== TASK 3: AN HONEST CORRECTION TO MY OWN HYPOTHESIS ===
I predicted that random labels would produce `too long` clauses (the TM padding).
MEASURED: on this encoding noise reads as **short / `collapsed`** (mean 1.88,
median 2.0, acc 33.3%) - the TM FAILS TO COMMIT rather than padding. So "too
long" is not the noise signature, which means the shipped gun's 19.17 mean is not
explained by label noise. Worth knowing.
Adds diagnostic group 8: the clause-shape checker - full length distribution
(min/median/p10/p90/std), per-polarity and per-class breakdowns, a
`clauseShapeVerdict` against a parameterised healthy band (default 3-8),
per-BLOCK length contributions, and clause coverage (mean firing clauses,
effectiveClauses = participation ratio, top3Share). `healthLine` now appends
`shape=<mean> (<verdict>)`.
Validation: `test_tm_clause_shape` 66 checks. A planted 2-literal rule reads
`healthy` with the literals recovered exactly; per-block correctly names the
planted blocks (WALLS 43.0%, BULLETS 28.1%) and buries an irrelevant block (3.4%,
below its uniform 8.3% share); random labels read `collapsed`.
REAL READING, shipped gun: mean 19.17 / median 16.00 / p90 44.80 / max 57,
173 non-empty of 200, 27 empty => **`too long`**; coverage firing/sample 48.53
(24.3%), effectiveClauses 97.85/200, top3Share 5.3% (voting NOT concentrated);
per-block is diffuse with no dominator, EXCEPT **UNUSED 6.4%** - the always-true
negations of the never-written bits 38/39 acting as FREE PADDING, the same bug the
kit found earlier now visible as clause bloat.
Guards: test_tm_clause_shape 66 (new), test_tm_diag 48, test_tm_automata_diag 55,
diag_synthetic 17, diag_automata_validation 11, test_gun_harness 39,
test_vbullet_metric 11, test_power_selection 3, test_adaptive_radar 41,
test_tfil_ring_weights 24, test_power_policy 26, test_ram_decision 40,
test_rack_membership 48, test_selector_tiebreak 19, test_tm_pattern_registration 20,
test_vbullet_admit_gate 12. acceptance_offline_vs_online not run (needs a live
battle; no tm_diag dependency).
|
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|
SirStone
|
e180626b50 |
Horizon headroom: QUALIFIED PASS at h=10..50, but the signal is one feature
Measures the learnable headroom of the "where will the enemy be in h ticks" problem on the DrussGT fixtures, for h=1..50, using the ANGULAR error (the aim only cares about the angle - a distance-only error cannot change the shot). Observer = ModularBot at t; naive guess = straight-line extrapolation, never bounced off walls. Round-bounded via the .rounds.json sidecars; the tail h ticks of each round are dropped, never labelled with garbage. N = 32,630 (h=1) down to 31,405 (h=50). WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY - **The question is FAIR.** Sign balance is dead-centre at EVERY horizon (47.7-50.2% left) with zero systematic bias (median signed error = 0.00 deg at every h). No de-biasing needed - a healthy symmetric question, which is what the two-binary output shape needs. - **The dumb guess is exact short, wrong long.** naiveMiss (aim lands outside the 18px body): 0% at h<=3, 3.3% at 4, 11.8% at 5, 27.6% at 6, 48.6% at 10, 62.6% at 15, 73.5% at 20, 85.9% at 30, 93.7% at 50. Error magnitudes: median 2.0 deg (h10), 7.0 (h20), 12.8 (h30), 18.5 (h40), 24.5 (h50). Body half-angle at 300px is 3.43 deg - so at long horizons the error is 4-7x the body size. - **No trivial rule solves it.** Turn-direction accuracy is 53-54% at h<=3, drops through 50% at h~7, and INVERTS to 38-45% at long h (flipped = 55-62%, the best single rule anywhere). Causal 1-step persistence peaks ~65% at h2-4 and decays to ~49% by h50. Majority is 50-51.5%. - **REAL signal exists in exactly ONE feature: the enemy's current turn/reversal direction.** dTurn swings from +8.4pp (h2) through 0 (h7) to **-24.0pp at h50", all |z|>6. Every other planned feature is WEAK: walls <=2-4pp, speed <=5pp, bullets <=4pp, reversal <=6pp, closing <=3pp. TWO FINDINGS I DID NOT EXPECT 1. **The dead zone is h=5..9.** The naive guess starts missing there (12-44%) but NO tested feature shifts the left/right split by >=5pp - the sign is a featureless coin flip in that band. So those horizons carry no learnable signal despite looking promising. 2. **The bullet block - which we designed with enthusiasm - shows <=4pp of shift.** The enemy's dodging reaction to our bullet is NOT a strong conditioning signal at these horizons in this measurement. CAVEAT: the "bullet in flight" split used an energy-drop proxy with ~370 false positives in 1504 positives, so this is a weak negative, not a settled one - the block should be measured properly before being cut. RECOMMENDED RANGE: **h = 10..50** (41 horizons, contiguous). Criteria: (a) 42-58% left, (b) max(turnAcc, pers1Acc) < 75%, (c) some feature |delta| >= 5pp with |z| >= 3, (d) naiveMiss >= 15%. h=1-4 fail (d); h=5-9 fail (c); from h=10 all four hold and strengthen with h. VERDICT - QUALIFIED PASS, and the job's own calibration is worth quoting: there is genuine, non-degenerate structure, so the horizon-input design is not obviously wasted; BUT the per-sample signal is weak and concentrated almost entirely in one feature which already captures most of the easy structure (~60% sign accuracy). **"I would not treat this as a green light for a big build; I would first check that a model can beat 60% sign accuracy on a held-out round at h~15-25."** CAVEATS (from the tool): DrussGT-only, and the enemy's movement at capture time was a RESPONSE to our current movement, so the headroom is conditional on how we move now; offline observation is perfect every tick while live we see the enemy only on radar scans, so these numbers are an UPPER BOUND; and the replay is open-loop even though the capture was closed-loop. |
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|
SirStone
|
ab8d383121 |
Automata metrics: settledness alone does NOT separate learning from fidgeting
Added the four automata-level metrics to the TM diagnostics kit (settledness, clause diversity, churn, vote disagreement) plus a state histogram, a per-input confidence table and a one-line health summary, and validated them on a learnable-vs-noise pair. STATE CONVENTIONS, read off OUR code rather than from memory: range [-nStates, nStates] as int16; nStates = 64 for tm_pattern, 32 for tsetlin initial value 0 = the Exclude boundary INCLUDE iff state > 0; EXCLUDE iff state <= 0 flip boundary sits between state 0 and 1; commitment = abs(st)/nStates in [0,1] === THE GATE, AND A RESULT THAT MATTERS === Case A (learnable planted rule) vs Case B (shuffled labels), 49 bits, N=64: metric A (learnable) B (shuffled) settledness mean 0.970 0.719 churn flip/sample 0.000055 FALLING 0.000788 FLAT clause-change/sample 0.00263 falling 0.0595 flat diversity (Jaccard) 0.176 0.014 disagreement 0.003 0.298 verdict settling mixed (NOT settling) **SETTLEDNESS ALONE DOES NOT WORK.** On noise the automata still COMMIT (0.719) - they just commit to the wrong thing. The decisive separators are **churn TREND (falling vs flat)** and **vote DISAGREEMENT (0.003 vs 0.298)**. Had we built only the settledness metric - the one that seems most obvious - we would have been misled. That is now recorded in the README. INERTIA SWEEP: A vs B separate at N=16/32/64/128. **Raising N raises A's commitment but does NOT reduce B's noise-fitting** - so more inertia does not rescue a noise-fitting TM. === REAL READING ON THE SHIPPED GUN, AND THE INFERENCE IT SUPPORTS === tm_pattern GF head over the DrussGT fixtures: settledness 0.484 (settling), diversity 0.267 (moderate), churn 0.094/100 FALLING, disagreement 0.145 (coherent). **VERDICT: SETTLING** - not fidgeting, not collapsed. Constant inputs flagged: 38/39 (the known never-written bits) plus 19/36/37. Context: pooled warm accuracy 35.72% vs 34.24% majority = +1.48pp. So: **the old gun was NOT failing because of inertia or instability - it settled properly and its settled rules still barely beat a lazy guess.** Its settledness (0.484) is LOWER than both synthetic cases (0.97/0.72), which is the signature of WEAK OR CONFLICTING SIGNAL rather than too much inertia. CONCLUSION: **N and s are not the observed bottleneck. The target/representation is.** That is exactly why the new design changes the target and the label pipeline rather than sweeping knobs - and it means we should NOT spend effort on an N/s sweep expecting it to fix anything. Also adds `diag_automata_validation.nim` (Case A/B/C + inertia sweep) and `test_tm_automata_diag.nim` (55 pure checks); `test_tm_diag` 48 and `diag_synthetic` 17 still pass, plus all other guards. acceptance_offline_vs_online was NOT run (it needs a live battle and there is no tm_diag dependency). Caveat: churn on the real gun is a PROXY (a tm_core retrain over captured samples in live order) because the live gun exposes no per-sample state trace; the other metrics are read directly off the exported teams. |
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|
SirStone
|
f9f8d84671 |
TM diagnostics kit: VALIDATED (finds a known dead input), and it found a real bug
Built `common_libs/tm_diag/` as a first-class offline diagnostics kit for Tsetlin
work, BEFORE writing the new gun - because we hit two data problems tonight that no
amount of reading the TM's clauses would have revealed (a 38.8% majority answer,
and 36-58% mislabelled training samples).
WHAT IT PROVIDES
- `feature_spec.nim`: a NAMED feature container, so a learned clause prints as a
sentence (`IF near-wall AND bullet-dead-on AND turn-left(t-2) THEN class=3`)
instead of "feature 17". Includes the 49-bit draft spec from the design session
and the shipped 40-bit encoding.
- `tm_core.nim`: a compact deterministic Granmo multiclass TM with an
INTROSPECTABLE clause layout (mirrors the tm_pattern core).
- `diagnostics.nim`, six groups: (1) pre-flight DATA checks + shuffled-label
control, (2) clause introspection (readable dump, per-clause vote counts, empty
and never-fired clauses, length distribution, per-class balance), (3)
per-feature contribution with an explicit DEAD-INPUT LIST and a ranked
most-valuable list, (4) accuracy vs the majority baseline with per-class
precision/recall and pred-majority share, (5) learning curve, (6) ablation hooks
(drop a block / scramble a bit).
=== TASK 3: THE VALIDATION THAT GATES EVERYTHING - PASSED WITH NUMBERS ===
A diagnostic we never checked is worthless, so the kit was tested on a synthetic
set with a PLANTED RULE (class2 = A and B, class1 = A and not B, class0 = not A),
a deliberately IRRELEVANT block (US, 9 bits) and a PURE-NOISE bit (17).
- majority baseline 60.63% (class0); over-30% correctly flagged
- **the planted rule is recovered EXACTLY** via `necessaryLiterals`:
class0 IF NOT dist-wall<50 | class1 IF dist-wall<50 AND NOT lat DEAD-ON |
class2 IF dist-wall<50 AND lat DEAD-ON
- **DEAD-INPUT LIST = all 9 US bits AND the noise bit 17**, while the planted bits
0 and 45 are correctly NOT listed
- top contributors: bit0 w=1241.7, bit45 w=583.3, then 49.8 - a 12-25x gap, so the
relevant bits are unmistakable
- **ABLATION: drop WALLS -39.47pp, drop BULLETS -19.33pp, drop US 0.00pp**,
scramble A -42.00pp, scramble the noise bit 0.00pp
- shuffled-label control 60.40% vs majority 60.63% = -0.23pp -> no leak
So the kit reliably finds a known dead input and a known relevant one.
=== TASK 4: THE REAL READING, AND A BUG IN THE SHIPPED GUN ===
`tm_pattern` GF head, 6 DrussGT fixtures, pooled 250,745 samples:
- label balance c2 = **34.4%** (majority-heavy, flagged); accuracy **35.72%** vs
majority **34.24%** -> margin **+1.48pp**. On `tr_drussgt_vs_crazy` it is BELOW
majority (33.81% vs 37.72%, -3.92pp).
- 200 clauses: **27 empty, 45 never fired**, mean length 19.17, max 57. The
majority class is starved (class2: 22 non-empty, 18 empty, only 2 positive
fired). Class4 fires 11-24-literal clauses -> memorisation signature.
- **REPRESENTATION BUG FOUND (reported, not silently fixed):** `tmBuildBits` writes
only 38 raw bits into `var bits: array[TM_NBITS=40, uint8]` - bits 38 and 39 are
NEVER ASSIGNED, so they are always 0 and their negated literals are always 1.
The kit's `constantInputs` confirms 38/39 are constant, and **`UNUSED-38`/`39`
rank #6 and #8 in the most-valuable-inputs list** - i.e. the model's
highest-usage inputs are information-free. That is a representation bug, not a
display artefact, and it is a concrete mechanism for part of the poor learning.
DRAFT ENCODING CHECKED: the 49-bit draft is arithmetically consistent
(4+4=8 walls, 6+3=9 us, 3+5+3+3+3+3=20 motion, 5+7=12 bullets = 49). No draft
inconsistency.
Guards: test_tm_diag 48 (new), diag_synthetic 17 (new), test_gun_harness 39,
test_vbullet_metric 11, test_power_selection 3, test_adaptive_radar 41,
test_tfil_ring_weights 24, test_power_policy 26, test_ram_decision 40,
test_rack_membership 48, test_selector_tiebreak 19, test_tm_pattern_registration 20,
test_vbullet_admit_gate 12, acceptance_offline_vs_online 12/12; tm_pattern_learning
passes. The tm_pattern hook is additive and default-OFF (no behaviour change).
NOT YET INCLUDED (the automata metrics discussed for the next step): per-clause
automata settledness (distance from the flip point), clause diversity (pairwise
overlap), literal-set churn over time, and cross-clause vote disagreement. The kit
has clause-level diagnostics but not the automata-state ones.
|
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|
SirStone
|
b0654d18eb |
TM verdict, settled: it loses LIVE and sits at/below its majority class - (c)
The user pushed back on "the TM can't be your best 1v1 gun", correctly, because two
decisive tests had never been run. Both are now run and they agree.
TASK 1 - THE GF HEAD vs ITS MAJORITY-CLASS BASELINE (offline, n=1,751,067):
label histogram [254286, 284578, 678879, 297055, 236269]
majority class = 2 (the CENTRE bucket) = 38.77%
RAW head accuracy = 36.69% -> margin **-2.08 pp, BELOW majority**
GATED head accuracy = 40.37% vs 38.75% majority -> +1.62 pp, BUT it predicts the
majority class on 62.4% of ticks and its minority recall is 13.6% / 12.9% - a
base-rate predictor wearing a classifier's clothes.
Shuffled control sits at its own majority (20.04% vs 20.12%), confirming chance.
**THE OLD "46% vs 20% CHANCE" FIGURE I QUOTED WAS WRONG ON TWO COUNTS:** the
baseline is 38.8%, not 20%, and the 46% predated the deferred-label fix. Against
the correct baseline the head is BELOW it.
TASK 2 - THE FIRST-EVER LIVE A/B OF THE TM GUN (7 runs x 7 rounds per arm, one
frozen binary from git archive HEAD =
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|
SirStone
|
eb74f9b2e3 |
Ram: finisher-only by default, and the bullet-rain abort now measures real energy
Follows the diagnosis that proactive straight-line ramming CANNOT work: both bots have MAX_SPEED=8, so a pursuit cannot catch an evading equal-speed opponent. Measured over 49 rounds per arm, opportunity -> contact was **0/6** (base), 0/40 (ring), 0/12 (ringhot). The only proactive conversion in the whole corpus came from a FINISHER, and only because a <20-energy DrussGT stops fleeing (that episode closed at 6-8 px/tick). Opportunity episodes never got below ~80px; one ran the full 60-tick duration cap and closed only 198->171px; a perfectly aligned full-speed one closed 195->114px then plateaued. CHANGES - **Finisher-only default.** `finisher` (<20 energy, dist<300, we are healthier) and the rare `desperation` (both <5, dist<150) are kept; `opportunity` and the speculative `plan` are OFF. Both are env-reenableable with no rebuild: `TR_RAM_OPPORTUNITY=1` (tune via TR_RAM_OPP_DIST/MARGIN) and `TR_RAM_PLAN=1`. Justification: it removes 100+ non-converting episodes per fixture at zero measured loss (oldram vs base was p=0.69, damage 279 vs 284, survival 17/49 vs 16/49) - and each of those episodes spent up to 60 ticks driving STRAIGHT at the enemy, abandoning the mover's dodging and disrupting aim. - **`desperation` KEPT** deliberately: it is cheap and rare, fires only when both bots are nearly dead at short range (a coin-flip where 0.6 contact can decide it), and it is not the refuted straight-line pursuit. - **THE BULLET-RAIN ABORT WAS DEAD CODE AND IS NOW FIXED.** `onHitByBullet` accumulated raw bullet FIREPOWER while `TR_RAM_ABORT_DMG = 0.5` was documented as a DAMAGE rate - so the bar was implicitly "sum of power > 7.5 over 15 turns" and the maximum rate ever observed was 0.27. It now accumulates REAL ENERGY via a `bulletDamage(power)` helper matching the server's `4p` / `6p-2` formula, and `TR_RAM_ABORT_DMG` defaults to **2.0 energy/turn** (~30 HP over 15 turns): "abort an in-progress ram if we take > 2.0 energy per turn". Same effective bar for normal firepower, and it can now actually fire - the live run reports `dmgRate=1.07/turn` where the old units said 0.27. - **`ramStuckTicks` REMOVED.** It required `dist < 5px`; contact occurs at ~36px (two 18px radii) and position rewind prevents getting closer, so it could never increment. Only the 60-tick duration cap can now self-end a ram. LIVENESS (measured, default config, vs a charging Java RamFire, 3 rounds): default -> `[ram] ON reason=finisher` x3, `reason=opportunity` x0 TR_RAM_OPPORTUNITY=1 -> `reason=opportunity` x4, `reason=finisher` x2 So the opportunity states DID occur and are suppressed by the new default - the removal is real, not an arm that never fires. A line also read `[ram] OFF reason=duration dmgRate=1.07/turn`, confirming the new energy units. Adds docs/ramming_negative_result.md (70 lines) recording the question, the five diagnostic answers, the geometric reason, the finisher exception, the two dead code paths, and an explicit "do not re-attempt a proactive straight-line ram; if point-blank forcing is ever wanted it is an INTERCEPTION/cornering movement problem" note - the same pattern that stopped the corpse bug recurring. Guards: test_ram_decision 40 (was 28), test_gun_harness 39, test_vbullet_metric 11, test_power_selection 3, test_adaptive_radar 41, test_tfil_ring_weights 24, test_power_policy 26, test_rack_membership 48, test_selector_tiebreak 19, test_tm_pattern_registration 20, test_vbullet_admit_gate 12, acceptance_offline_vs_online 12/12. ModularBot compiles. Honest note: the abort-threshold fix is a real (tiny) behaviour change, NOT measured-neutral - it only bites while a finisher ram is under sustained fire, which is exactly the user's stated wish. The finisher-only removal itself is measured-neutral per the given A/B. |